By Tom Fairless
A top European Central Bank official signaled on Tuesday that
the ECB should soon start to wind down its EUR2.3 trillion
bond-purchase program, a much anticipated move that is expected to
trigger volatility in financial markets.
"I am...optimistic that we can soon turn to the question of an
exit" from easy-money policies, said Sabine Lautenschläger, who
sits on the ECB's six-member executive board, at an event in
Hamburg.
The ECB "must get ready for better times," Ms. Lautenschläger
said.
The euro fell about four-tenths of a cent against the dollar
after the comments, which were released after European markets had
closed.
It is the first time that an ECB board member has indicated that
the days of the bank's so-called quantitative-easing program may be
numbered.
Last week, ECB President Mario Draghi said the issue of
tapering, or winding down, the bank's controversial stimulus
program hadn't even been discussed by officials at a policy
meeting.
Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said
Ms. Lautenschläger's comments were justified.
"QE should end as there are too many negative side effects," Mr.
Kraemer said, pointing to potential asset-price excesses and
reduced pressure on southern European governments to reform their
economies.
The comments come amid signs of strength in the eurozone's EUR10
trillion economy after years of weak growth, and a wave of
criticism of the ECB's easy-money policies in Germany, Europe's
largest economy. A recent jump in German inflation, to 1.7% in
December, has rekindled political concerns over the impact of low
interest rates on the nation's savers.
Ms. Lautenschläger, a former Bundesbank official who is the only
German-born member of the ECB's executive board, previously has
expressed skepticism about the bank's bond purchases.
She warned on Tuesday that the ECB shouldn't wait too long
before starting to wind down the program.
"All preconditions for a stable rise in inflation exist," Ms.
Lautenschläger said. The ECB shouldn't wait "until the last doubt
about the return of inflation has been dispelled."
The ECB has launched an unprecedented series of stimulus
measures in recent years in an effort to reinvigorate an economy
that has flirted with deflation. By pushing interest rates below
zero and buying tens of billions of government and corporate debt
each month, the ECB hopes to drive down borrowing costs across the
region, and spur growth and inflation.
Recently, signs have started to emerge that that is
happening.
Business activity has risen close to a five-year high, according
to a closely watched business survey, while unemployment is at a
seven-year low.
Inflation in the 19-nation eurozone jumped to 1.1% last month,
the highest level in three years, due largely to a rebound in
energy prices.
But it is still short of the ECB's target of just below 2%.
Crucially, core inflation -- stripping out volatile energy and
food prices -- has remained stubbornly low.
Mindful of that gap, Mr. Draghi last week pledged to continue
the ECB's bond-purchase program through the end of the year. The
purchases are due to slow to EUR60 billion from EUR80 billion a
month in April.
Ms. Lautenschläger's words indicate she may favor an end to the
bond purchases before December. If so, she would be supported by
her countryman Jens Weidmann, who heads Germany's Bundesbank and
has opposed the QE program from the start.
Still, a large majority of the ECB's 25 governing council
members supported a half-trillion euro extension of QE only last
month.
Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Markit in London, said the
latest comments -- from a known inflation hawk -- may not
ultimately signal a change in policy from Frankfurt.
"I suspect the ECB will stick to its current course for some
time to come," possibly until after German national elections in
late September, Mr. Archer said.
German politicians and economists have been lining up in recent
weeks to call for an end to the ECB's QE program, which was
launched nearly two years ago and has been repeatedly expanded.
Clemens Fuest, a top German economist who is president of the
Ifo economic think tank, says the ECB should start to wind down the
program as soon as April, if eurozone inflation hits 1.5%.
Ms. Lautenschläger warned that the risks and adverse side
effects of QE were mounting the longer the program was in
place.
While it is "important to stop taking the medicine as soon as
possible," it shouldn't be withdrawn too early, she said.
"You shouldn't abruptly stop loose monetary policy but slowly
cut the dose -- such a policy has to be reduced gradually," she
said.
Any formal signal that the ECB's bond-purchase program will end
is expected to trigger a major repricing of financial assets, as
investors price in higher future interest rates. When then Federal
Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke signaled in 2013 that the Fed's own QE
program would be wound down, U.S. Treasury yields surged and the
dollar rose substantially, an episode known as the Taper
Tantrum.
Write to Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 24, 2017 16:58 ET (21:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.