- June's new-vehicle sales pace is forecast to finish near 16.0
million, up 0.1 million from May's 15.9 million pace but down 0.1
million from last June's 16.1 million level.
- First-half sales volume is forecast to increase by 2.9% year
over year, thanks partly to strong results from Toyota, Honda and
Ford; Stellantis and Tesla tumble.
- Cox Automotive holds its full-year forecast steady at 15.7
million, with the sales pace through the first half expected to be
15.6 million, up from 15.4 million in the first half of 2023.
ATLANTA, June 25,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Cox Automotive forecasts U.S.
new-vehicle sales in June to show mild improvement over last year,
but high prices and interest rates continue to hinder a stronger
market. In June, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or
sales pace, is expected to finish near 16.0 million. This is down
slightly from last June's 16.1 million level and a modest uptick
from last month's 15.9 million pace.
According to Cox Automotive's Kelley
Blue Book estimates, new-vehicle sales volume through the
first half of 2024 is forecast to increase by nearly 225,000 units
compared to the first half of 2023 – an increase of 2.9%. The sales
pace through the first half is expected to be 15.6 million, up from
15.4 million in the first half of 2023.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior
economist at Cox Automotive, noted: "Sales have been relatively
strong over the last few months thanks in large part to lower
prices. Incentives are rising, which are helping vehicle buyers,
but only somewhat. The expectation of falling prices coupled with
rising uncertainty around interest rate policies may lead some
vehicle buyers to wait."
Steady Full-Year Forecast Amid Growing
Uncertainty
With expectations of uncertainty in the second
half of 2024, Cox Automotive is holding its full-year new-vehicle
sales forecast steady at 15.7 million, a gain of 1.3% from 2023,
when sales finished at 15.5 million. This increase is aligned with
the slow growth expected in 2024. Fleet sales are forecast to
finish the year at 2.9 million, up from 2.8 million in 2023.
Full-year retail sales are forecast to increase from 12.8 million
in 2024 to 12.7 million in 2023.
"We remain concerned that the second half of the year cannot
maintain the growth we've seen so far," said Chesbrough. "Adding to
the uncertainty in the market, many consumers likely believe things
will be better, or at least more certain, after the November
election, which adds to the hesitancy in buying. We still expect
2024 to finish a little better than 2023 – supported by more
discounting and better prices, but we will be fighting an uncertain
economic outlook."
GM Remains on Top; Toyota Volume Increases
General
Motors is forecast to remain the top automaker in U.S. new-vehicle
sales through the first half of 2024. However, GM sales are
forecast to drop 0.1% compared to the first half of 2023. Toyota,
which continues to operate with very lean new-vehicle supply, will
remain No. 2 after delivering a sizable 16.3% first-half
year-over-year gain. Ford and Hyundai are on track to remain the
No. 3 and No. 4 automakers, respectively.
Notably, Honda Motor Company – combined Honda and Acura brand
sales – is forecast to move ahead of Stellantis as the fifth
largest automaker by sales. With stronger inventory and popular new
models, Honda is expected to post a 10.8% volume increase in the
first half, compared to a 16.5% decrease for Stellantis in the same
period.
June 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle
Sales Forecast
|
Sales
Forecast1
|
Market
Share
|
Segment
|
Jun-24
|
Jun-23
|
May-24
|
YOY%
|
MOM%
|
Jun-24
|
May-24
|
MOM
|
Mid-Size Car
|
75,000
|
83,294
|
76,786
|
-10.0 %
|
-2.3 %
|
5.4 %
|
5.3 %
|
0.1 %
|
Compact Car
|
105,000
|
94,219
|
110,671
|
11.4 %
|
-5.1 %
|
7.6 %
|
7.7 %
|
-0.1 %
|
Compact
SUV/Crossover
|
235,000
|
225,156
|
244,294
|
4.4 %
|
-3.8 %
|
16.9 %
|
16.9 %
|
0.0 %
|
Full-Size Pickup
Truck
|
190,000
|
196,024
|
196,484
|
-3.1 %
|
-3.3 %
|
13.7 %
|
13.6 %
|
0.1 %
|
Mid-Size
SUV/Crossover
|
225,000
|
222,217
|
233,167
|
1.3 %
|
-3.5 %
|
16.2 %
|
16.1 %
|
0.1 %
|
Other
Segments
|
558,000
|
560,955
|
584,639
|
-0.5 %
|
-4.6 %
|
40.2 %
|
40.4 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Grand
Totall2
|
1,388,000
|
1,381,865
|
1,446,041
|
0.4 %
|
-4.0 %
|
|
|
|
1 Cox Automotive
Industry Insights data
2 Total
includes segments not shown
|
Q2 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast1
OEM
|
Q2
2023
|
Q1
2024
|
Q2
2024
|
versus
Q2 '23
|
YTD
2023
|
YTD
2024
|
versus
YTD '23
|
YTD
Share
|
General
Motors
|
689,393
|
590,055
|
697,804
|
1.2 %
|
1,288,581
|
1,287,859
|
-0.1 %
|
16.2 %
|
Toyota
|
568,963
|
565,097
|
642,902
|
13.0 %
|
1,038,521
|
1,207,999
|
16.3 %
|
15.2 %
|
Ford
|
527,905
|
504,815
|
551,527
|
4.5 %
|
999,766
|
1,056,342
|
5.7 %
|
13.3 %
|
Hyundai
|
437,826
|
379,203
|
449,315
|
2.6 %
|
820,180
|
828,518
|
1.0 %
|
10.4 %
|
Honda
|
347,025
|
333,824
|
365,719
|
5.4 %
|
631,532
|
699,543
|
10.8 %
|
8.8 %
|
Stellantis
|
434,648
|
332,541
|
337,906
|
-22.3 %
|
802,975
|
670,447
|
-16.5 %
|
8.5 %
|
Nissan Mitsu
|
268,955
|
281,138
|
256,079
|
-4.8 %
|
525,711
|
537,217
|
2.2 %
|
6.8 %
|
VW
|
151,411
|
139,756
|
174,748
|
15.4 %
|
289,467
|
314,504
|
8.6 %
|
4.0 %
|
Subaru
|
160,713
|
152,996
|
171,397
|
6.6 %
|
304,089
|
324,393
|
6.7 %
|
4.1 %
|
Tesla
|
175,262
|
140,187
|
148,462
|
-15.3 %
|
336,892
|
288,649
|
-14.3 %
|
3.6 %
|
Mazda
|
95,399
|
100,103
|
100,071
|
4.9 %
|
183,783
|
200,174
|
8.9 %
|
2.5 %
|
BMW
|
95,533
|
90,844
|
96,436
|
0.9 %
|
185,283
|
187,280
|
1.1 %
|
2.4 %
|
Mercedes-Benz
|
96,019
|
82,623
|
88,486
|
-7.8 %
|
171,720
|
171,109
|
-0.4 %
|
2.2 %
|
Nation2
|
4,117,571
|
3,768,960
|
4,160,657
|
1.0 %
|
7,705,381
|
7,929,617
|
2.9 %
|
100.0 %
|
1 Cox Automotive
Industry Insights data
2 Total
includes segments not shown
|
All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.
There are 26 selling days this June, which is the same as last year
and last month. There were 154 selling days in H1 2023 and H1
2024.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's
largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the
largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online
interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for
car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets.
The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a
portfolio of industry-leading brands that include
Autotrader®, Kelley Blue
Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®,
Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™,
CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox
Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately
owned, Atlanta-based company with
$22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or
connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on
Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
View original content to download
multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cox-automotive-forecast-us-auto-sales-expected-to-finish-first-half-higher-by-2-9-in-line-with-expectations-for-slow-growth-302182109.html
SOURCE Cox Automotive