Matt Simpson

STATEMENT SUMMARY: RBA lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% Downside risks stemming from the trade disputes have increased Outlook for GDP and CPI remain unchanged Strong employment growth has led to pick-up in private sector wage growth (yet remain low overall) Lower than expected CPI suggests subdued inflationary pressures across the […]

Bitcoin’s shakeout at the highs continues after tumbling over 8% early Asia. Over 5% of which, was shed within 30 minutes. Thursday’s bearish engulfing candle served as a warning all was not well at the highs, and it invalidated earlier analysis for $8.5k to remain supported ahead of another next leg higher. Furthermore, today’s plunge […]

Trump’s trade war on two fronts saw equity markets and indices move broadly lower on Friday and safe-haven demand rise. By the close, US treasuries were yielding just 2.1% (lowest since September 2017) and DJI fell further way from its neckline after breaking out of a head and shoulders pattern earlier in the week. Demand […]

Despite expectation of an RBA cut tomorrow, AUD/USD has broken to a 3-week high thanks to a weaker US dollar. We expected RBA to cut in May. Yet, instead they held off due to the federal election and bears were squeezed at the lows. However, expectations to ease tomorrow remain high with last month’s employment […]

The weekly COT report: As of Tuesday 28th May: Large speculators increased net-long exposure to USD by just $0.48 billion to $31.3 billion ($35.7 billion against G10 currencies) Traders were net-short NZD futures at their most bearish level since December 2018 Net-short exposure on GBP was its most bearish since March, although we’ve seen a […]

It’s the last day of the month and, barring a miraculous recovery into the close, the FTSE100 is headed for a 3-week, bearish reversal pattern with seasonality working against it. We can see on the weekly chart that an evening star reversal pattern is on the cusp of being confirmed. Moreover, last week’s high provides […]

We outlined a case as to why we thought gold’s corrective low is in and, despite a deeper than anticipated pullback, a longer-term bullish case above $1266.0 remains in-tact. We remain cautiously bullish above $1266 Gold has declined nearly 6% from the 2019 high to the 2019 low. Yet as this follows on from a […]

The BOC meeting wasn’t quite enough to see USD/CAD hold above April’s high but, with US GDP on tap, there’s potential for some volatility at the highs depending on where the data lands. Today’s GDP is a revised figure which doesn’t typically deviate too far from the original. Yet it may warrant closer attention this […]

Risk-off has taken centre stage again this week, yet the U-turn reversal on yields suggests a corrective bounce could be due and provide a sympathy bounce for markets. By yesterday’s low, the US10Y had fallen to its lowest level since September 2017 whilst global equity markets fell in tandem and demand for safe-haven assets were […]

Yesterday we highlighted that EUR/JPY bears could look to break beneath 122 and, earlier today, they did just that. Risk-off has swept its way through the Asia session although was initially contained to equity markets, where investors sold stocks in exchange for bonds to push yields lower. However, NZD/JPY has since broken lower and AUD/JPY […]