Verona Pharma Plc (VRNA) Options

Roger, how are you feeling?

Time of cc signals good news, imo

Given the quick move to $65.70 and subsequent halving of the gain, it seems MM's still seeking weak hands ... especially with tomorrow's CC before the market opens looming!

Yes the high end is reasonable but the low end seems too low to credit. Zero new patients results in...16,000 patients = $250m per year, divided by 4 gives $62m for current quarter. If they add the bare minimum new patients during CQ (1,000 per week) then that would be average of 22,500 partients = $87m for CQ.

Estimated outlook for cq are between 65 and 90 million

Roger, the average for Q4 was just over 1,000 patients per week with momentum building through the end of the year despite holidays. My estimate is, IMO, extremely conservative: no additional growth in new patients per week. This seems unlikely though so I expect those estimates of mine are low.

That would be awesome

They had 16,000 patients on ohtuveyre as of 31DEC and I bet they announce that they have 25,000 patients as of 14FEB or 27,000 as of 24FEB.

Thanks. Looking forward to seeing quarterlies next week. Anyone speculate on uptake for January?

Roger, buyout would be based on strength of market acceptance and uptake. BP should have already purchased for $100 per share, now the price will be $120 and will grow to $150-$200 as the next year plays out. A buyout could happen at any time - should happen at any time - but who knows?

How high does this go before getting taken out?

I am interested in Verona's comments on filing an MAA with the EMA. Hopefully, they have or will be doing so soon.

Verona Pharma to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results and Provide Corporate Update

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-to-report-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results-and-provide-corporate-update/

Does anyone have any thoughts as to today's gain?

I can tell you that I've been off steroids for 3 weeks.

Hello, Roger:

Is there any update on your condition which you would like to share?

Thank you,
powerwalker

VRNA 1 yr

For 2025, Stan Druckenmiller
made his long pick in the Robin Hood contest in Verona Pharma (VRNA). Verona's inhaled treatment for adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) won FDA approval last June. On Jan. 8, it said fourth-quarter sales totaled $36 million in the multi-billion dollar blockbuster indication.

Is Verona Pharma (VRNA) Among Billionaire Joseph Edelman’s Long-Term Stock Picks?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-vrna-among-billionaire-201156030.html

According to a msg board post the cfo said that their quarterly expenses were 50 million and sales were now break even and will soon be exceeding that.

While it might not be making a presentation, Verona execs are at the JPM Healthcare Conference, partaking in meetings with future impact.

Posted a typo before the released shares that were already on the shelf total was 2.5 million shares not 12.5 mil

Yes

Do you ascribe this improvement to ohtuvayre Roger? Congratulations!

Good news. I've been able to cut my Prednisone in half and hopefully eliminate it soon. Have found I can stretch my nebulizer treatments to Q6-7 from Q4. Will be interesting to see how much more improvement I can get b4 allergy season in Mar/April.

Roger, what is going on with you and your ohtuvayre experience?

We would like to hear about it.

Well they went and announced unofficial earnings on their own today. Also says they sold 12.5 million shares at an avg of 39.50 of so through Jeffries. Must have something else to announce at jpm?

Verona Pharma Reports Strong Ohtuvayre™ Launch and Provides Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Highlights

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-reports-strong-ohtuvayre-110000636.html

Sounds positive and noted the "J-code" that MegaPirate had emphasized. 👍️❤️

Thank you, MegaPirate, for your reply.

I'm not Hoskuld but the company said in q n a session last earnings call that they would announce unaudited q4 2024 sales at jpm around Jan 12 to 14 if I remember right. We will all need to be patient here. A launch doesn't really start until the second quarter of having a j code which is just now active. We will have a better indication in a year of the early results.

Hoskuld, do you think Verona will be invited to JP Morgan Healthcare Conference next week?

That is so great Roger! How has ohtuvayre helped you? Easier to breathe? Less phlegm? Would you be willing to share your experience?

Best of luck, Roger … it is time for a Christmas present for you and your elbow Virginians.

Merry Christmas and a prosperous 2025.
powerwalker

I can tell you the drug works for me. Acaria Pharma, specialty pharmacy filling rx's has thrown a wrench in the works by requiring Virginia patients to have additional Rx from the physician greatly increasing the time needed to fill. Ohtovayre patient portal reps are unaware. I've told 2 of them about it and emailed company but have not received any response. That was several weeks ago. I know my pulmonologist has prescribed it for several patients but I believe I may be the first to actually receive it.
,

GIDDY-UP, VERONA, and all you hedge managers and investment bankers hitch yourselves to this rocket! It is ready to take-off!

Let's go you, Investment advisors and hedge fund managers, get your valuation models going full tilt this weekend to calculate how quickly Verona can get to $100 ... and start buying!

Hopefully, Verona will break the $40 ceiling and stay above it. Its performance deserves it.

PW another claim by management is that this is the best pulmonary launch ever (by far.)

Thank you, Hoskuld. I'll listen to one of the two tomorrow.

I thought it was excellent PW: uptake is strong and docs are prescribing earlier in the disease cycle than anticipated which underscores the hunger for a differentiated therapy. Feedback from docs is good. Based on what he said, I expect the company will be cash flow positive by April.

Any word on today's presentation?

Yes. Still waiting. Seems to be quite a process with Acaria pharmacy, Medicare, coinsurance. No idea where the process is at. I do know dr.s office has done all that's been asked. They are just as interested in any improvement as I am. Have a feeling I'm the guinea pig for this practice. <S>. I wonder if pharmacy is overwhelmed or is there some other reason. I'll let you know if I hear anything. Have a great day. 

Good morning, Roger:

Did the doctor's office get things right, so you are now on Ohtuvayre?

If so, let us know how it is helping.

Upcoming next week:

Verona Pharma Announces December 2024 Investor Conference Participation
Share

LONDON and RALEIGH, N.C., Nov. 19, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Verona Pharma plc (Nasdaq: VRNA) (“Verona Pharma” or the “Company”) announces that senior management will present a company overview at the following conferences in December 2024:

Piper Sandler 36th Annual Healthcare Conference
Date: Tuesday, December 3, 2024
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. GMT
Location: New York, NY

7th Annual Evercore HealthCONx Conference
Date: Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET / 8:00 p.m. GMT
Location: Miami, FL

A webcast of each conference presentation will be available on the Events and Presentations link on the Investors page of the Company’s website, www.veronapharma.com.

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-announces-december-2024-investor-conference-participation/

Probably a moot point. If it's a 200 billion dollar asset over time the most big pharma will pay is 20b. And they will take it sooner rather than later. Maybe within the next 2 yrs.

Pricing is the US is pretty sweet - ROW not so much. If bicyclical then the motion will be elliptical.

Does anyone have thoughts on yesterday's presentation? I read the slides and come away with the impression that Verona can serve 50% of the market with the focus on 80% of the HCPs intent to Prescribe Ohtuvayre.

With $1.1 billion in sales for each !% or 86K patients, those are BIG numbers down the road as Mega and Hoskuld shared earlier this week.

Just search fintel Duquesne position of 680k shares you can validate this on multiple sites. Use ai in your searches lol

Mega, article is behind a pay-wall for CNBC, so can't see it.

I think he will buy more ... sooner, rather than later.

It is in process. Mixup at doctors office. Verona and Acaria have been very supportive and helpful. Should be straightened out today.