CALGARY,
AB, May 12, 2023 /CNW/ - InPlay Oil Corp.
(TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) ("InPlay" or the "Company") announces its
financial and operating results for the three months ended
March 31, 2023. InPlay's condensed
unaudited interim financial statements and notes, as well as
Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") for the
three months ended March 31, 2023
will be available at "www.sedar.com" and our website at
"www.inplayoil.com". Our corporate presentation will soon be
available on our website.
First Quarter 2023 Financial &
Operating Highlights
- Achieved average quarterly production of 9,020
boe/d(1) (58% light crude oil and NGLs), an increase of
21% on a debt adjusted per share basis compared to 8,221
boe/d(1) (59% light crude oil and NGLs) in the first
quarter of 2022.
- Generated strong quarterly adjusted funds flow
("AFF")(2) of $21.3
million ($0.24 per weighted
average basic share(3)).
- Maintained balance sheet strength with a low net
debt(2) to earnings before interest, taxes and depletion
("EBITDA")(3) ratio of 0.4 on a trailing twelve month
basis down from 1.0 in the first quarter of 2022.
- Executed the most active quarter in the Company's history
drilling four (3.2 net) extended reach horizontal ("ERH") wells in
Willesden Green, two (2.0 net) ERH wells in Pembina and two (0.3
net) non-operated Willesden Green ERH wells. InPlay also started
the upgrade of an operated gas facility in Willesden Green
providing additional capacity. One (0.95 net) additional Willesden
Green well which was planned for the second quarter was drilled in
March and drilling operations began on another one (0.95 net)
Willesden Green well in the first quarter.
- Returned $4.4 million in the
quarter directly to shareholders through $4.0 million in dividends and $0.4 million of share repurchases under the
Company's Normal Course Issuer Bid.
- Realized net income of $9.3
million ($0.11 per basic
share; $0.10 per diluted share).
- Financial capability to deliver consistent returns to
shareholders with the dividend supportable at a $55 WTI pricing environment until 2025.
Financial and Operating
Results:
(CDN)
($000's)
|
Three months
ended March
31
|
|
2023
|
2022
|
Financial
|
|
|
Oil and natural gas
sales
|
45,301
|
52,156
|
Adjusted funds
flow(2)
|
21,296
|
29,379
|
Per share –
basic (4)
|
0.24
|
0.34
|
Per share
–diluted(4)
|
0.24
|
0.32
|
Per
boe(4)
|
26.23
|
39.71
|
Comprehensive
income
|
9,291
|
18,774
|
Per share –
basic
|
0.11
|
0.22
|
Per share –
diluted
|
0.10
|
0.21
|
Capital expenditures –
PP&E and E&E
|
29,600
|
21,562
|
Property acquisitions
(dispositions)
|
327
|
(1)
|
Net Corporate
acquisitions(3)
|
-
|
432
|
Net
debt(2)
|
(46,204)
|
(73,392)
|
Shares
outstanding
|
88,772,801
|
86,537,351
|
Basic weighted-average
shares
|
87,908,075
|
86,449,636
|
Diluted
weighted-average shares
|
90,425,837
|
90,964,311
|
Operational
|
|
|
Daily production
volumes
|
|
|
Light and medium crude
oil (bbls/d)
|
3,788
|
3,571
|
Natural gas liquids
(bbls/d)
|
1,458
|
1,307
|
Conventional natural
gas (Mcf/d)
|
22,648
|
20,054
|
Total
(boe/d)
|
9,020
|
8,221
|
Realized
prices(4)
|
|
|
Light and medium crude
oil & NGLs ($/bbls)
|
81.30
|
97.50
|
Conventional natural
gas ($/Mcf)
|
3.39
|
5.18
|
Total
($/boe)
|
55.80
|
70.50
|
Operating netbacks
($/boe)(3)
|
|
|
Oil and natural gas
sales
|
55.80
|
70.50
|
Royalties
|
(9.43)
|
(10.27)
|
Transportation
expense
|
(0.92)
|
(1.21)
|
Operating
costs
|
(14.70)
|
(12.96)
|
Operating
netback(3)
|
30.75
|
46.06
|
Realized (loss) on
derivative contracts
|
-
|
(0.81)
|
Operating
netback (including realized derivative
contracts)(3)
|
30.75
|
45.25
|
First Quarter 2023 Financial & Operations
Overview:
InPlay's capital program for the first quarter of
2023 was the Company's most active quarter in our history. During
the quarter, InPlay invested $29.6
million drilling, completing and equipping four (3.2 net)
ERH wells in Willesden Green, two (2.0 net) ERH wells in Pembina
and two (0.3 net) non-operated Willesden Green ERH wells.
Completion operations on two wells were advanced into the quarter
that were originally planned to occur in the second quarter to
ensure these wells could be brought on production prior to spring
breakup. InPlay also advanced the initiation of its second quarter
capital program into the first quarter by drilling in Willesden
Green an additional one (0.95 net) ERH well in March and beginning
the drilling operations on another one (0.95 net) ERH well. During
the quarter, the Company also started construction on the first of
two planned natural gas facility upgrades in Willesden Green in
2023.
In one area of Pembina, as published in our
March 15, 2023 press release, the
Company had natural gas production curtailments beginning
February 15th from a third
party natural gas facility due to capacity constraints. This
impacted production in the quarter by approximately 475 boe/d (68%
natural gas). InPlay actively responded to mitigate the impact of
this curtailment on revenue by shutting in wells with high gas
weightings, maximizing oil production and AFF in the strong oil
pricing environment. The impact of the constraints was also
mitigated by the fact that due to expected weaker natural gas
pricing in 2023, InPlay previously shifted 2023 drilling plans away
from this prolific production area due to its higher gas weighted
production, and its higher gas processing fees in comparison to our
Willesden Green property.
In Willesden Green, two (1.6 net) ERH wells that
were brought on production in early February had average initial
production ("IP") rates per well of 579 boe/d (73% light crude oil
and NGLs) and 428 boe/d (70% light crude oil and NGLs) over their
first 30 and 60 days respectively. The Company also brought on
production another two (1.6 net) ERH Willesden Green wells in early
March. The average IP rates for these wells was 722 boe/d (82%
light crude oil and NGLs) and 564 boe/d (81% light crude oil and
NGLs) per well over their first 30 and 60 days respectively. These
four wells have delivered IP rates significantly above internal
expectations and their high production rates led to increased back
pressure in the area resulting in operated and non-operated
curtailments of approximately 150 boe/d (57% light crude oil and
NGLs) during the quarter due to temporarily backing out production
from our older lower pressured offsetting wells. During April,
InPlay completed the upgrade on the first of two natural gas
processing facilities in the Willesden Green area which allowed
curtailed production to be brought back online.
Production averaged 9,020 boe/d (58% light crude
oil & NGLs) (1) in the first quarter of 2023
resulting in $21.3 million of AFF.
The impact on production due to the two above mentioned
curtailments was approximately 625 boe/d (48% light crude oil &
NGLs) in the first quarter of 2023. During the quarter, InPlay
increased light oil and NGLs weighting by approximately 1.5% over
the fourth quarter of 2022, and this weighting is expected to
continue to increase as the Company is focused on drilling in areas
with higher oil weightings.
Outlook and Operations
Update(5)
InPlay continues to be excited about 2023 as our
drilling continues to outperform our expectations including the two
oil focused wells drilled in Pembina in the first quarter and
brought on production in April. The two (2.0 net) ERH wells had
average IP rates over their first 25 days of 307 boe/d (89% light
crude oil and NGLs) per well, exceeding our internal forecasts with
a strong oil and liquids weighting. These wells are expected to
remain at an elevated oil weighting and flat for a few months as we
continue to see strong pressures, decreasing water cuts and the
artificial lift equipment is operating at maximum pumping
capacity.
Capital activity planned for the second quarter
will include completing and bringing on production three (2.9 net)
ERH wells in Willesden Green which commenced drilling in March and
finished in April. These wells are expected to be completed in late
May and brought on production in early June. Continued work on our
second significant upgrade to an operated natural gas plant in
Willesden Green is also planned for the quarter. This upgrade is
expected to be online in the second half of July and provides
InPlay with considerable increased operated natural gas capacity to
facilitate continued development and growth in Willesden Green in
the current and future years. Drilling activity is expected to
resume in late June or early July but overall capital spending in
the second quarter is expected to be significantly lower than the
first quarter providing strong free adjusted funds
flow(3).
A three week turnaround at the Company's largest
non-operated midstream natural gas facility is expected to occur in
June. InPlay proactively secured capacity at alternative facilities
for a significant amount of impacted gas production and the
production of oil and NGLs in the second quarter of 2023 is not
expected to be materially affected.
InPlay responded quickly and effectively to
address the production curtailments impacting the Company in the
first quarter. Natural decline of InPlay and other operators'
production in Pembina continues to reduce the impact of curtailed
production, which is currently estimated at 825 boe/d (68% natural
gas), compared to the 950 boe/d (68% natural gas) impact during the
last half of the first quarter. We expect natural declines will
continue to reduce the impact of curtailed production through the
summer and alternative options to bring the remaining curtailed
production fully back online are currently being evaluated. The
Company anticipates all curtailed production to be back online
early in the fourth quarter of 2023 which will be sold into the
much higher future winter natural gas prices.
Strong fundamentals have InPlay continuing to
focus on high oil weighted properties as we have a much more
favorable outlook for oil prices versus natural gas prices,
specifically in the second half of 2023. This focus is due to light
oil and NGLs representing an estimated 86% of our overall
forecasted corporate revenue in 2023. The 2023 capital program will
remain flexible and the Company will revisit this program should
commodity prices continue to remain volatile.
Similar to other operators, InPlay has had
production in the Pembina region affected by the recent wildfires
in Alberta. Our first priority was
ensuring the safety of our employees, contractors, the community
and our infrastructure, which to date has been accomplished. The
Company started shutting in production and facilities late on
May 4th and had concluded
shutting in all affected wells and facilities by late in the day on
May 5th. Affected
production shut in peaked at approximately 3,400 boe/d (52% light
oil and liquids). Since the weekend the fire hazard has somewhat
diminished in the area. Production has started to be brought back
on over the past few days and we will continue to restart the
remaining production down as services allow. We will continue to
monitor the hazards and act accordingly. The Company thanks its
field employees for their diligent and quick action in safely
shutting in operations.
Strong results from our 2023 drilling program to
date has InPlay reiterating our previous production guidance of
9,500 – 10,500 boe/d(1). However, given the curtailments
experienced to date in 2023 and their expected impact over the next
few quarters, the Company is forecasting 2023 average production to
be within the lower half of this guidance at 9,500 – 10,000
boe/d(1) but at the higher end of our light crude oil
and NGLs weighting guidance at 59% - 61%.
The Company continues to expect near term
volatility in commodity prices, specifically natural gas prices,
but with the United States refined
product inventory levels at five year lows, oil inventory at the
five year average and refineries starting back up after maintenance
downtime, we anticipate the second half of 2023 to have higher oil
prices. The Company's downside exposure to lower forward summer
2023 natural gas prices are protected with hedges put in place of
12,500 GJ/day swaps at $3.73 AECO per
GJ for April to October 2023.
InPlay forecasts 2023 AFF(2) of $117 to $123
million with FAFF(3) of $37 to $48 million.
The Company's leverage metrics are forecasted to remain at very low
levels, with net debt to EBITDA(3) forecast to be 0.0x –
0.2x for 2023.
The Company continues to remain focused on
providing strong returns to shareholders through the payment of our
monthly dividend of $0.015/share
(which is expected to be only 13%-14% of forecasted 2023 AFF),
timely share repurchases under our normal course issuer bid and
top-tier production per debt adjusted share growth. The Company's
strong debt position, disciplined and adaptable capital allocation,
and high quality asset base provides InPlay with a competitive
advantage to continue to provide strong returns to shareholders in
a volatile commodity pricing environment. The Company forecasts our
base monthly dividend to be sustainable in a scenario where WTI
dropped to US $55/bbl through to the
end of 2025.
On behalf of our employees, management team and
Board of Directors, we would like to thank our shareholders for
their support and look forward to updating you on our progress
throughout the year.
Notes:
|
1.
|
See "Production
Breakdown by Product Type" at the end of this press
release.
|
2.
|
Capital management
measure. See "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" contained
within this press release.
|
3.
|
Non-GAAP financial
measure or ratio that does not have a standardized meaning under
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and GAAP and
therefore may not be comparable with the calculations of similar
measures for other companies. Please refer to "Non-GAAP and Other
Financial Measures" contained within this press
release.
|
4.
|
Supplementary
financial measure. See "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures"
contained within this press release.
|
5.
|
See "Reader
Advisories – Forward Looking Information and Statements" for key
budget and underlying assumptions related to our previous and
updated 2023 capital program and associated
guidance.
|
Reader Advisories
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Throughout this press release and other materials
disclosed by the Company, InPlay uses certain measures to analyze
financial performance, financial position and cash flow. These
non-GAAP and other financial measures do not have any standardized
meaning prescribed under GAAP and therefore may not be comparable
to similar measures presented by other entities. The non-GAAP and
other financial measures should not be considered alternatives to,
or more meaningful than, financial measures that are determined in
accordance with GAAP as indicators of the Company performance.
Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP and
other financial measures provides useful information to
shareholders and investors in understanding and evaluating the
Company's ongoing operating performance, and the measures provide
increased transparency and the ability to better analyze InPlay's
business performance against prior periods on a comparable
basis.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Ratios
Included in this document are references to the
terms "free adjusted funds flow", "operating income", "operating
netback per boe", "operating income profit margin", "Net Debt to
EBITDA", "Net Corporate Acquisitions", "Debt adjusted production
per share" and "EV / DAAFF". Management believes these measures and
ratios are helpful supplementary measures of financial and
operating performance and provide users with similar, but
potentially not comparable, information that is commonly used by
other oil and natural gas companies. These terms do not have any
standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be
considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than "profit
(loss) before taxes", "profit (loss) and comprehensive income
(loss)", "adjusted funds flow", "capital expenditures", "corporate
acquisitions, net of cash acquired", "net debt", "weighted average
number of common shares (basic)" or assets and liabilities as
determined in accordance with GAAP as a measure of the Company's
performance and financial position.
Free Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers FAFF an important measure to
identify the Company's ability to improve its financial condition
through debt repayment and its ability to provide returns to
shareholders. FAFF should not be considered as an alternative to or
more meaningful than AFF as determined in accordance with GAAP as
an indicator of the Company's performance. FAFF is calculated by
the Company as AFF less exploration and development capital
expenditures and property dispositions (acquisitions) and is a
measure of the cashflow remaining after capital expenditures before
corporate acquisitions that can be used for additional capital
activity, corporate acquisitions, repayment of debt or
decommissioning expenditures or potentially return of capital to
shareholders. Refer below for a calculation of historical FAFF and
to the "Forward Looking Information and Statements" section for a
calculation of forecast FAFF.
(thousands of
dollars)
|
|
Three Months
Ended March 31
|
|
|
|
2023
|
2022
|
Adjusted funds
flow
|
|
|
21,296
|
29,379
|
Exploration and dev.
capital expenditures
|
|
|
(29,600)
|
(21,562)
|
Property dispositions
(acquisitions)
|
|
|
(327)
|
1
|
Free adjusted funds
flow
|
|
|
(8,631)
|
7,818
|
Operating Income/Operating Netback per
boe/Operating Income Profit Margin
InPlay uses "operating income", "operating
netback per boe" and "operating income profit margin" as key
performance indicators. Operating income is calculated by the
Company as oil and natural gas sales less royalties, operating
expenses and transportation expenses and is a measure of the
profitability of operations before administrative, share-based
compensation, financing and other non-cash items. Management
considers operating income an important measure to evaluate its
operational performance as it demonstrates its field level
profitability. Operating income should not be considered as an
alternative to or more meaningful than net income as determined in
accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company's performance.
Operating netback per boe is calculated by the Company as operating
income divided by average production for the respective period.
Management considers operating netback per boe an important measure
to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates its
field level profitability per unit of production. Operating income
profit margin is calculated by the Company as operating income as a
percentage of oil and natural gas sales. Management considers
operating income profit margin an important measure to evaluate its
operational performance as it demonstrates how efficiently the
Company generates field level profits from its sales revenue. Refer
below for a calculation of operating income, operating netback per
boe and operating income profit margin.
(thousands of
dollars)
|
|
Three Months
Ended March 31
|
|
|
|
2023
|
2022
|
Revenue
|
|
|
45,301
|
52,156
|
Royalties
|
|
|
(7,653)
|
(7,599)
|
Operating
expenses
|
|
|
(11,935)
|
(9,588)
|
Transportation
expenses
|
|
|
(743)
|
(893)
|
Operating
income
|
|
|
24,970
|
34,076
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sales volume
(Mboe)
|
|
|
811.8
|
739.9
|
Per
boe
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue
|
|
|
55.80
|
70.50
|
Royalties
|
|
|
(9.43)
|
(10.27)
|
Operating
expenses
|
|
|
(14.70)
|
(12.96)
|
Transportation
expenses
|
|
|
(0.92)
|
(1.21)
|
Operating netback per
boe
|
|
|
30.75
|
46.06
|
Operating income profit
margin
|
|
|
55 %
|
65 %
|
Net Debt to EBITDA
Management considers Net Debt to EBITDA an
important measure as it is a key metric to identify the Company's
ability to fund financing expenses, net debt reductions and other
obligations. EBITDA is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds
flow before interest expense. When this measure is presented
quarterly, EBITDA is annualized by multiplying by four. When this
measure is presented on a trailing twelve month basis, EBITDA for
the twelve months preceding the net debt date is used in the
calculation. This measure is consistent with the EBITDA formula
prescribed under the Company's Senior Credit Facility. Net Debt to
EBITDA is calculated as Net Debt divided by EBITDA. Refer below for
a calculation of Net Debt to EBITDA and to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of forecast
Net Debt to EBITDA.
(thousands of
dollars)
|
|
Twelve Months
Ended March 31
|
|
|
|
2023
|
2022
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
|
|
122,722
|
69,209
|
Interest expense
(Credit Facility and other)
|
|
|
4,612
|
5,534
|
Interest expense (Lease
liabilities)
|
|
|
36
|
20
|
EBITDA
|
|
|
127,370
|
74,763
|
Net Debt
|
|
|
46,204
|
73,392
|
Net Debt to
EBITDA
|
|
|
0.4
|
1.0
|
Net Corporate Acquisitions
Management considers Net corporate acquisitions
an important measure as it is a key metric to evaluate the
corporate acquisition in comparison to other transactions using the
negotiated consideration value and ignoring changes to the fair
value of the share consideration between the signing of the
definitive agreement and the closing of the transaction. Net
corporate acquisitions should not be considered as an alternative
to or more meaningful than "Corporate acquisitions, net of cash
acquired" as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of
the Company's performance. Net corporate acquisitions is calculated
as total consideration with share consideration adjusted to the
value negotiated with the counterparty, less working capital
balances assumed on the corporate acquisition. Refer below for a
calculation of Net corporate acquisitions and reconciliation to the
nearest GAAP measure, "Corporate acquisitions, net of cash
acquired".
(thousands of
dollars)
|
|
Twelve Months
Ended March 31
|
|
|
|
2023
|
2022
|
Corporate acquisitions,
net of cash acquired
|
|
|
-
|
432
|
Share
consideration(1)
|
|
|
-
|
-
|
Non-cash working
capital acquired
|
|
|
-
|
432
|
Derivative
contracts
|
|
|
-
|
-
|
Net Corporate
acquisitions
|
|
|
-
|
432(3)
|
|
|
(1)
|
During the three months
ended March 31, 2022, the acquired amount of Property, plant and
equipment was adjusted by $0.4 million as a result of adjustments
relating to the acquisition, with a corresponding increase in the
recognized amounts of Accounts payable and accrued
liabilities.
|
Production per Debt Adjusted Share
InPlay uses "Production per debt adjusted share"
as a key performance indicator. Debt adjusted shares should not be
considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than common
shares as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the
Company's performance. Debt adjusted shares is a non-GAAP measure
used in the calculation of Production per debt adjusted share and
is calculated by the Company as common shares outstanding plus the
change in net debt divided by the Company's current trading price
on the TSX, converting net debt to equity. Debt adjusted shares
should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful
than weighted average number of common shares (basic) as determined
in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company's
performance. Management considers Debt adjusted share is a key
performance indicator as it adjusts for the effects of capital
structure in relation to the Company's peers. Production per debt
adjusted share is calculated by the Company as production divided
by debt adjusted shares. Management considers Production per debt
adjusted share is a key performance indicator as it adjusts for the
effects of changes in annual production in relation to the
Company's capital structure. Refer below for a calculation of
Production per debt adjusted share and to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of forecast
Production per debt adjusted share.
(thousands of
dollars)
|
|
Three Months
Ended March 31
|
|
|
|
2023
|
2022
|
Production
(boe/d)
|
|
|
9,020
|
8,221
|
Net Debt
($millions)
|
|
|
46.2
|
73.4
|
Weighted average
outstanding shares
|
|
|
87.9
|
86.4
|
Assumed share
price(2)
|
|
|
2.77
|
|
Production per debt
adjusted share growth(1)
|
|
|
21 %
|
|
|
|
(1)
|
Production per debt
adjusted share is calculated by the Company as production divided
by debt adjusted shares. Debt adjusted shares is calculated by the
Company as common shares outstanding plus the change in net debt
divided by the Company's current trading price on the TSX,
converting net debt to equity.
|
(2)
|
Weighted average share
price throughout 2022.
|
EV / DAAFF
InPlay uses "enterprise value to debt adjusted
AFF" or "EV/DAAFF" as a key performance indicator. EV/DAAFF is
calculated by the Company as enterprise value divided by debt
adjusted AFF for the relevant period. Debt adjusted AFF ("DAAFF")
is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow plus financing
costs. Enterprise value is a capital management measures that is
used in the calculation of EV/DAAFF. Enterprise value is calculated
as the Company's market capitalization plus working capital (net
debt). Management considers enterprise value a key performance
indicator as it identifies the total capital structure of the
Company. Management considers EV/DAAFF a key performance indicator
as it is a key metric used to evaluate the sustainability of the
Company relative to other companies while incorporating the impact
of differing capital structures. Refer to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of forecast
EV/DAAFF.
Capital Management Measures
Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers adjusted funds flow to be an
important measure of InPlay's ability to generate the funds
necessary to finance capital expenditures. Adjusted funds flow is a
GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the Company's
financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2023. All references to adjusted funds
flow throughout this MD&A are calculated as funds flow
adjusting for decommissioning expenditures and transaction and
integration costs. Decommissioning expenditures are adjusted from
funds flow as they are incurred on a discretionary and irregular
basis and are primarily incurred on previous operating assets.
Transaction costs are non-recurring costs for the purposes of an
acquisition, making the exclusion of these items relevant in
Management's view to the reader in the evaluation of InPlay's
operating performance. The Company also presents adjusted funds
flow per share whereby per share amounts are calculated using
weighted average shares outstanding consistent with the calculation
of profit per common share.
Net Debt / Working Capital
Net debt / working capital is a GAAP measure and
is disclosed in the notes to the Company's financial statements for
three months ended March 31, 2023.
The Company closely monitors its capital structure with a goal of
maintaining a strong balance sheet to fund the future growth of the
Company. The Company monitors net debt / working capital as part of
its capital structure. The Company uses net debt / working capital
(bank debt plus accounts payable and accrued liabilities less
accounts receivables and accrued receivables, prepaid expenses and
deposits and inventory) as an alternative measure of outstanding
debt. Management considers net debt / working capital an important
measure to assist in assessing the liquidity of the Company.
Supplementary Measures
"Average realized crude oil price" is
comprised of crude oil commodity sales from production, as
determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company's crude
oil production. Average prices are before deduction of
transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on
financial instruments.
"Average realized NGL price" is
comprised of NGL commodity sales from production, as determined in
accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company's NGL production.
Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do
not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
"Average realized natural gas
price" is comprised of natural gas commodity sales from
production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the
Company's natural gas production. Average prices are before
deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and
losses on financial instruments.
"Average realized commodity price" is
comprised of commodity sales from production, as determined in
accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company's production. Average
prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not
include gains and losses on financial instruments.
"Adjusted funds flow per weighted average
basic share" is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided
by the basic weighted average common shares.
"Adjusted funds flow per weighted average
diluted share" is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided
by the diluted weighted average common shares.
"Adjusted funds flow per boe" is comprised
of adjusted funds flow divided by total production.
Forward-Looking Information and
Statements This news release contains certain forward–looking
information and statements within the meaning of applicable
securities laws. The use of any of the words "expect",
"anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "may", "will", "project",
"should", "believe", "plans", "intends", "forecast" and similar
expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information or
statements. In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this
news release contains forward-looking information and statements
pertaining to the following: the Company's business strategy,
milestones and objectives; the Company's planned 2023 capital
program including wells to be drilled and completed and the timing
of the same and that the operated natural gas plant in Willesden
Green is expected to be online in the second half of July; 2023
guidance based on the planned capital program and all associated
underlying assumptions set forth in this press release including,
without limitation, forecasts of 2023 annual average production
levels, debt adjusted production levels, adjusted funds flow, free
adjusted funds flow, Net Debt/EBITDA ratio, operating income profit
margin, and Management's belief that the Company can grow some or
all of these attributes and specified measures; light crude oil and
NGLs weighting estimates; expectations regarding future commodity
prices; future oil and natural gas prices; future liquidity and
financial capacity; future results from operations and operating
metrics; future costs, expenses and royalty rates; future interest
costs; the exchange rate between the $US and $Cdn; future
development, exploration, acquisition, development and
infrastructure activities and related capital expenditures,
including our planned 2023 capital program; the amount and timing
of capital projects; forecasted spending on decommissioning; that
the Company has the financial capability to deliver consistent
return to shareholders and the dividend is supportable at a
$55 WTI pricing environment until
2025; that the Company's light oil and NGLs weighting is expected
to continue to increase as the Company is focused on drilling in
areas with higher oil weightings; that the production profile of
the two Pembina wells brought on production in April is expected to
remain flat for a few months; the expectation that the second
quarter will provide strong free adjusted funds flow; the
expectation that all curtailed production will be back online in
the fourth quarter of 2023; and methods of funding our capital
program.
Without limitation of the foregoing, readers are
cautioned that the Company's future dividend payments to
shareholders of the Company, if any, and the level thereof will be
subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors of InPlay. The
Company's dividend policy and funds available for the payment of
dividends, if any, from time to time, is dependent upon, among
other things, levels of FAFF, leverage ratios, financial
requirements for the Company's operations and execution of its
growth strategy, fluctuations in commodity prices and working
capital, the timing and amount of capital expenditures, credit
facility availability and limitations on distributions existing
thereunder, and other factors beyond the Company's control.
Further, the ability of the Company to pay dividends will be
subject to applicable laws, including satisfaction of solvency
tests under the Business Corporations Act (Alberta), and satisfaction of certain
applicable contractual restrictions contained in the agreements
governing the Company's outstanding indebtedness.
Forward-looking statements or information are
based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions
of InPlay which have been used to develop such statements and
information but which may prove to be incorrect. Although InPlay
believes that the expectations reflected in such
forward looking statements or information are reasonable,
undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements
because InPlay can give no assurance that such expectations will
prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions
which may be identified herein, assumptions have been made
regarding, among other things: the impact of increasing
competition; the general stability of the economic and political
environment in which InPlay operates; the timely receipt of any
required regulatory approvals; the ability of InPlay to obtain
qualified staff, equipment and services in a timely and cost
efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of the operator of
the projects in which InPlay has an interest in to operate the
field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the ability of
InPlay to obtain debt financing on acceptable terms; the timing and
amount of purchases under the Company's NCIB; the anticipated tax
treatment of the monthly base dividend; field production rates and
decline rates; the ability to replace and expand oil and natural
gas reserves through acquisition, development and exploration; the
timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility construction and
the ability of InPlay to secure adequate product transportation;
future commodity prices; that various conditions to a shareholder
return strategy can be satisfied; expectations regarding the
potential impact of COVID-19 and the Russia/Ukraine conflict; currency, exchange and
interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and
environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which InPlay
operates; and the ability of InPlay to successfully market its oil
and natural gas products.
The forward-looking information and statements
included herein are not guarantees of future performance and should
not be unduly relied upon. Such information and statements,
including the assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known
and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause
actual results or events to defer materially from those anticipated
in such forward-looking information or statements including,
without limitation: the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
and the Russia/Ukraine conflict; inflation and the risk of a
global recession; changes in our planned 2023 capital program;
changes in our long range plan; changes in our approach to
shareholder returns, including in relation to the Company's NCIB
and the timing and amount of any potential purchases thereunder;
changes in commodity prices and other assumptions outlined herein;
the risk that dividend payments may be reduced, suspended or
cancelled; the potential for variation in the quality of the
reservoirs in which we operate; changes in the demand for or supply
of our products; unanticipated operating results or production
declines; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or
other regulatory matters; changes in development plans or
strategies of InPlay or by third party operators of our properties;
changes in our credit structure, increased debt levels or debt
service requirements; inaccurate estimation of our light crude oil
and natural gas reserve and resource volumes; limited, unfavorable
or a lack of access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of
adequate insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain
other risks detailed from time-to-time in InPlay's continuous
disclosure documents filed on SEDAR including our Annual
Information Form and our MD&A.
This press release contains future-oriented
financial information and financial outlook information
(collectively, "FOFI") about InPlay's financial and leverage
targets and objectives, InPlay's long-term forecast, and potential
dividends and share buybacks, all of which are subject to the same
assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and qualifications as set
forth in the above paragraphs. The actual results of operations of
InPlay and the resulting financial results will likely vary from
the amounts set forth in this press release and such variation may
be material. InPlay and its management believe that the FOFI has
been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management's
reasonable estimates and judgments. However, because this
information is subjective and subject to numerous risks, it should
not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results.
Except as required by applicable securities laws, InPlay undertakes
no obligation to update such FOFI. FOFI contained in this press
release was made as of the date of this press release and was
provided for the purpose of providing further information about
InPlay's anticipated future business operations and strategy.
Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this press release
should not be used for purposes other than for which it is
disclosed herein.
The internal projections, expectations, or
beliefs underlying our Board approved 2023 capital budget and
associated guidance, as well as management's preliminary estimates
and targets in respect of plans for 2024 and beyond (which are not
based on Board approved budgets at this time), are subject to
change in light of, among other factors, the impact of world events
including pandemics and the Russia/Ukraine conflict, ongoing results, prevailing
economic circumstances, volatile commodity prices, and industry
conditions and regulations. InPlay's financial outlook and guidance
provides shareholders with relevant information on management's
expectations for results of operations, excluding any potential
acquisitions or dispositions, for such time periods based upon the
key assumptions outlined herein. In this document reference is made
to the Company's longer range 2024 and beyond internal plan and
associated economic model. Such information reflects internal
estimates and targets used by management for the purposes of making
capital investment decisions and for internal long range planning
and budget preparation. Readers are cautioned that events or
circumstances could cause capital plans and associated results to
differ materially from those predicted and InPlay's guidance for
2023, and more particularly 2024 and beyond, may not be appropriate
for other purposes. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be
placed on same.
The forward-looking information and statements
contained in this news release speak only as of the date hereof and
InPlay does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise
any of the included forward-looking statements or information,
whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise,
except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
Risk Factors to FLI
Risk factors that could materially impact
successful execution and actual results of the Company's 2023
capital program and associated guidance and long-term preliminary
plans and estimates include:
- volatility of petroleum and natural gas prices and inherent
difficulty in the accuracy of predictions related thereto;
- the extent of any unfavorable impacts of wildfires in the
province of Alberta;
- changes in Federal and Provincial regulations;
- the Company's ability to secure financing for the Board
approved 2023 capital program and longer term capital plans sourced
from AFF, bank or other debt instruments, asset sales, equity
issuance, infrastructure financing or some combination
thereof;
- those additional risk factors set forth in the Company's
MD&A and most recent Annual Information Form filed on
SEDAR
Key Budget and Underlying Material Assumptions to
FLI
The key budget and underlying material
assumptions used by the Company in the development of its current
and previous 2023 guidance and preliminary estimates are as
follows:
|
|
|
Actuals FY
2022
|
Updated
Guidance FY 2023
|
Previous
Guidance FY
2023(1)
|
WTI
|
US$/bbl
|
|
$94.23
|
$80.00
|
$80.00
|
NGL Price
|
$/boe
|
|
$50.14
|
$45.00
|
$45.80
|
AECO
|
$/GJ
|
|
$5.04
|
$3.10
|
$3.40
|
Foreign Exchange
Rate
|
CDN$/US$
|
|
0.77
|
0.73
|
0.73
|
MSW
Differential
|
US$/bbl
|
|
$1.82
|
$2.85
|
$3.20
|
Production
|
Boe/d
|
|
9,105
|
9,500 –
10,000
|
9,500 –
10,500
|
Revenue
|
$/boe
|
|
71.79
|
59.00 –
64.00
|
60.25 –
65.25
|
Royalties
|
$/boe
|
|
11.55
|
8.75 – 10.25
|
8.75 – 10.25
|
Operating
Expenses
|
$/boe
|
|
13.16
|
11.75 –
14.75
|
11.75 –
14.75
|
Transportation
|
$/boe
|
|
1.18
|
1.00 – 1.25
|
1.10 – 1.35
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
1.49
|
0.75 – 1.25
|
0.35 – 0.85
|
General and
Administrative
|
$/boe
|
|
2.86
|
2.25 – 2.95
|
2.25 – 2.95
|
Hedging loss
(gain)
|
$/boe
|
|
1.97
|
(0.58) –
(0.82)
|
(0.50) –
(0.75)
|
Decommissioning
Expenditures
|
$ millions
|
|
$3.0
|
$3.5 – $4.0
|
$3.5 – $4.0
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$131
|
$117 – $123
|
$126 – $138
|
Dividends
|
$ millions
|
|
$3
|
$15 – $16
|
$15 – $16
|
|
|
|
Actuals FY
2022
|
Updated
Guidance FY 2023
|
Previous
Guidance FY
2023(1)
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$131
|
$117 – $123
|
$126 – $138
|
Capital
Expenditures
|
$ millions
|
|
$77.6
|
$75 – $80
|
$75 – $80
|
Free Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$53
|
$37 – $48
|
$46 – $63
|
|
|
|
Actuals FY
2022
|
Updated
Guidance FY 2023
|
Previous
Guidance FY
2023(1)
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$131
|
$117 – $123
|
$126 – $138
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
1.49
|
0.75 – 1.25
|
0.35 – 0.85
|
EBITDA
|
$ millions
|
|
$136
|
$121 – $127
|
$128 – $140
|
Working Capital (Net
Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
($33)
|
($16) –
($10)
|
($2) – $10
|
Net
Debt/EBITDA
|
|
|
0.2
|
0.0 – 0.2
|
(0.1) – 0.1
|
|
|
|
Actuals FY
2022
|
Updated
Guidance FY 2023
|
Previous
Guidance FY
2023(1)
|
Production
|
Boe/d
|
|
9,105
|
9,500 –
10,000
|
9,500 –
10,500
|
Opening Working Cap.
(Net Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
($80.2)
|
($33)
|
($33)
|
Ending Working Cap.
(Net Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
($33)
|
($16) –
($10)
|
($2) – $10
|
Weighted avg.
outstanding shares
|
# millions
|
|
86.9
|
88.7
|
88.6
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
3.39(3)
|
2.75
|
3.00
|
Prod. per debt adj.
share growth(2)
|
|
|
51 %
|
10% – 20%
|
16% – 36%
|
|
|
|
Actuals FY
2022
|
Updated
Guidance FY 2023
|
Previous
Guidance FY
2023(1)
|
Share outstanding, end
of year
|
# millions
|
|
87.0
|
89.1
|
89.1
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
3.03(4)
|
2.75
|
3.00
|
Market
capitalization
|
$ millions
|
|
$263
|
$245
|
$267
|
Working Capital (Net
Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
($33)
|
($16) –
($10)
|
($2) – $10
|
Enterprise
value
|
$millions
|
|
$296
|
$255 – $261
|
$257 – $269
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$131
|
$117 – $123
|
$126 – $138
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
1.49
|
0.75 – 1.25
|
0.35 – 0.85
|
Debt Adjusted
AFF
|
$ millions
|
|
$136
|
$121 – $127
|
$128 – $140
|
EV/DAAFF
|
|
|
2.2
|
2.2 – 2.0
|
2.1 – 1.8
|
The change in the current 2023 guidance from
prior guidance results from forecasted production to be within the
lower half of guidance given the curtailments experienced to date
in 2023 and their expected impact over the next few quarters as
detailed in this press release.
The Company's 2024 and 2025 preliminary plans
remains the same as previously released January 18, 2023, with net debt (working capital)
updated to reflect the updated 2023 ending net debt. The 2024 and
2025 preliminary plan guidance calculations which are impacted by
this change and the change in assumed share price to $2.75 are outlined below.
|
|
|
Updated
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(5)
|
Updated
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2025(5)
|
Previous
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(1)(5)
|
Previous
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2025(1)(5)
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
EBITDA
|
$ millions
|
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
Working Capital (Net
Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
$20 – $32
|
$63 – $74
|
$38 – $50
|
$81 – $92
|
Net
Debt/EBITDA
|
|
|
(0.1) –
(0.3)
|
(0.3) –
(0.5)
|
(0.2) –
(0.4)
|
(0.5) –
(0.6)
|
|
|
|
Updated
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(5)
|
Updated
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2025(5)
|
Previous
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(1)(5)
|
Previous
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2025(1)(5)
|
Production
|
Boe/d
|
|
10,250 –
11,250
|
10,950 –
11,950
|
10,250 –
11,250
|
10,950 –
11,950
|
Opening Working Cap.
(Net Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
($16) –
($10)
|
$20 – $32
|
($2) – $10
|
$38 – $50
|
Ending Working Cap.
(Net Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
$20 – $32
|
$63 – $74
|
$38 – $50
|
$81 – $92
|
Weighted avg.
outstanding shares
|
# millions
|
|
89.1
|
89.1
|
89.1
|
89.1
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
2.75
|
2.75
|
3.00
|
3.00
|
Prod. per debt adj.
share growth(2)
|
|
|
24% – 44%
|
21% – 39%
|
17% – 36%
|
18% – 37%
|
|
|
|
Updated
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(5)
|
Updated
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2025(5)
|
Previous
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(1)(5)
|
Previous
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2025(1)(5)
|
Share outstanding, end
of year
|
# millions
|
|
89.1
|
89.1
|
89.1
|
89.1
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
2.75
|
2.75
|
3.00
|
3.00
|
Market
capitalization
|
$ millions
|
|
$245
|
$245
|
$267
|
$267
|
Working Capital (Net
Debt)
|
$ millions
|
|
$20 – $32
|
$63 – $74
|
$38 – $50
|
$81 – $92
|
Enterprise
value
|
$millions
|
|
$213 – $225
|
$171 – $182
|
$217 – $229
|
$175 – $186
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
Debt Adjusted
AFF
|
$ millions
|
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
$138 – $150
|
$144 – $154
|
EV/DAAFF
|
|
|
1.7 – 1.4
|
1.4 – 1.1
|
1.7 – 1.4
|
1.3 – 1.1
|
|
|
(1)
|
As previously released
January 18, 2023 and March 15, 2023.
|
(2)
|
Production per debt
adjusted share is calculated by the Company as production divided
by debt adjusted shares. Debt adjusted shares is calculated by the
Company as common shares outstanding plus the change in working
capital (net debt) divided by the Company's current trading price
on the TSX, converting working capital (net debt) to equity. Future
share prices assumed to be consistent with the current share
price.
|
(3)
|
Weighted average share
price throughout 2022.
|
(4)
|
Ending share price at
December 31, 2022.
|
(5)
|
InPlay's estimates and
plans for 2024 and beyond remain preliminary in nature and do not,
at this time, reflect a Board approved capital expenditure
budget.
|
- See "Production Breakdown by Product Type" below
- Quality and pipeline transmission adjustments may impact
realized oil prices in addition to the MSW Differential provided
above
- Changes in working capital (net debt) are not assumed to have a
material impact between the years presented above.
- The assumptions above do not include potential future purchases
through the Company's NCIB.
Test Results and Initial
Production Rates
Test results and initial production ("IP") rates
disclosed herein, particularly those short in duration, may not
necessarily be indicative of long term performance or of ultimate
recovery. A pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation
has not been carried out and thus certain of the test results
provided herein should be considered to be preliminary until such
analysis or interpretation has been completed.
Production Breakdown by Product
Type
Disclosure of production on a per boe basis in
this press release consists of the constituent product types as
defined in NI 51–101 and their respective quantities disclosed
in the table below:
|
Light and Medium
Crude oil
(bbls/d)
|
NGLs
(boe/d)
|
Conventional
Natural
gas
(Mcf/d)
|
Total
(boe/d)
|
Q1 2022 Average
Production
|
3,571
|
1,307
|
20,054
|
8,221
|
2022 Average
Production
|
3,766
|
1,402
|
23,623
|
9,105
|
Q1 2023 Average
Production
|
3,788
|
1,458
|
22,648
|
9,020
|
2023 Annual
Guidance
|
4,250
|
1,468
|
23,445
|
9,625(1)
|
2024 Annual Preliminary
Plan
|
4,655
|
1,565
|
27,180
|
10,750(2)
|
2025 Annual Preliminary
Plan
|
4,900
|
1,685
|
29,190
|
11,450(2)
|
Notes:
|
1.
|
This reflects
forecasted production within the Company's 2023 production guidance
range of 9,500 to 10,000 boe/d.
|
2.
|
This reflects the
mid-point of the Company's annual production forecast
range.
|
3.
|
With respect to
forward–looking production guidance, product type breakdown is
based upon management's expectations based on reasonable
assumptions but are subject to variability based on actual well
results.
|
References to crude oil, light oil, NGLs or
natural gas production in this press release refer to the light and
medium crude oil, natural gas liquids and conventional natural gas
product types, respectively, as defined in National Instrument
51-101, Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("Nl
51-101").
BOE equivalent
Barrel of oil
equivalents or BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in
isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 mcf: 1 bbl is based on an
energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the
burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the
wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of
crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different
than the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a 6:1 conversion
basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
SOURCE InPlay Oil Corp.