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I have written about Avanti Communications (LSE:AVN) several times before. Shares in the AIM listed satellite operator, are in my view, very cheap at 348.5p. But they are volatile. The year low is 241.25p the year high is 419.25p – some range. And they can move pretty sharply on rumours or indeed downright falsehoods. And so to, a brief note on the latest rumour.
The rumour ( courtesy of SpaceNews.com): The government of Luxembourg has asked international regulators to deny an operating license for Avanti Communications’ Hylas 2 Ka-band satellite launched in August, saying Avanti’s rights to the orbital position expired in May and that Hylas 2 will interfere with an SES satellite scheduled for launch in 2013.
The British government, which is London-based Avanti’s regulatory sponsor for Hylas 2, has rejected the Luxembourg claims with arguments that include the fact that Avanti’s Hylas 1, launched in November 2010, had reserved Hylas 2’s place in orbit by stopping at the Hylas 2 slot for 16 days before moving to its own allocated position. Britain has told regulators that Luxembourg’s proposal would cause “disastrous … consequences” for Avanti.
The Luxembourg and British governments presented their written arguments Aug. 30 and Sept. 5, respectively, in advance of a weeklong meeting of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Radio Regulations Board scheduled for the week of Sept. 10 in Geneva.
The ITU’s Radiocommunication Bureau, a lower body that recommends courses of action to the board, has sided with the British position, saying that while Hylas 2 did not arrive in orbit until three months after its slot and frequency reservation had expired, Avanti had made a good-faith effort to meet the deadline.
The Official comment from Avanti (we swapped emails today): It is not a threat. The ITU formally confirmed our filing and a major competitor has whinged. Shows you how much our spectrum is worth.
And the folks at the ITU who look at such gripes and recommend action for the Board to take (which it invariably does) have sided with Avanti. The article came out on Friday but since this nonsense started the shares have fallen by around 10%. I would be mined to regard that as an over-reaction.
I first tipped this stock at 116p a long while ago. Yeah, you read that right, a Tom Winnifrith tip which is 200% ahead and you thought that, having read the dumb posts of various BB morons, that I could not tip a waiter.
But let’s move on from the morons and let them go fill their boots with shares in overhyped rubbish like Range Resources (RRL) and Zoltav Resources (ZOL). Shares in Avanti Communications are still cheap (my target remains £11.50 on a base case scenario). For a detailed explanation of why they are so cheap & of that valuation click HERE.
even monkey can find winners
would it have stuck w/Ascot, Norseman (might be a good one now; yes, management counts), VGM, CGNR, RIVP?????, boy the list is endless.
Graham Curtis.
I agree monkeys can find winners and also losers. So why not look at the whole track record over 12 years and look at the average gain. It is available at http://www.t1ps.com and I am sure that if you look at the facts rather than picking out just losers you might be in a position to offer a more balanced judgement.
I am sorry and apologise when I offer a share tip and it goes wrong. Having produced something like 300 on t1ps over 12 years there are bound to be losers. Your maximum loss per tip is 100%. Perhaps you might start by looking at those where I have advised readers to bank gains of 1000% or more….
Best wishes
Tom
Misleading as usual Tom. OK let’s accept you first tipped them ,and some other stocks, when they were low. The point is however that you continued to tip them, and some other stocks, at vastly higher prices and so led t1ps investors to think they were still good buys at those higher prices. That’s why so many t1ps investors lost money … and you lost your reputation…and you also had to give up managing two funds which had initially done well but were ultimately shown to be full of rubbish and under researched stocks.
So the tip is only 200% ahead to those who bought initially. It’s also massively a large % down to many other investors who bought because you continued to tip it.
Hi Tom,
I read your posts with great interest and like them as well, about Avanti, the company released RNS on 10th sept, part of which saysmentions : “HYLAS 2 is located at the orbital position 31 East. Avanti, via its National Regulator OFCOM, has received the standard confirmation from the ITU Radiocommunication Bureau (which regulates such matters) that its ITU filing for the use of spectrum by HYLAS 2 at 31°E has been accepted and notified in accordance with ITU rules, providing the necessary regulatory basis for the operation of the HYLAS 2 satellite at 31°E. ”
Does this means that the Luxembourg issue you mentioned in your article solved ?
I agree, the most money I ever lost on a share was on Ascot which Tom kept very strongly tipping (slum dunk buy, tip of the year,etc etc)being the only reason I kept these, wiped out all the gains I made on my own selections. This is serious for me as I live on money made stock trading.
Also I believe that AVANTI have not resolved their dispute with Luxembourg and that any compromise which looks likely will be detrimental to profits.