- Between Six and Ten Gigatons per Annum of Residual CO2
Emissions Are Likely to Remain Unabated Globally in 2050
- It Is Unlikely That Voluntary Demand Alone Will Meet Global
Needs and Supporting Policies Will Be Required
- The Integration of Durable Carbon Dioxide Removal into
Existing and Proposed Policies Could Drive Up to 2.5 Gigatons in
Demand by 2050
BOSTON, June 24,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The role of high quality,
durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which can remove and
sequester emissions for 100 to 1,000+ years, is critical to
limiting temperature rise as shown in all scenarios from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). An estimated six
to ten gigatons (Gt) per annum of residual CO2 emissions is likely
to remain unabated globally in 2050. CDR purchases have grown
substantially, from 600 kilotons (kt) in 2022 to 4.5 megatons (Mt)
purchased in 2023, and are expected to reach between 60 and 750
megatons per annum by 2040. However, this falls far short of the
scale needed to reach net zero. These are among the findings of a
new report being released today by Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
titled Scaling CDR: Demand Drivers for Durable
CDR.
CDR demand needs to scale up significantly—from 125 kt of
durable CDR delivered in 2023 to the multi-gigaton scale needed by
2050. Without government action, this is unlikely to
materialize.
"Unlike many climate technologies, the primary value of CDR is a
public good," said Karan Mistry, BCG
partner and managing director, and coauthor of the report. "This
brings its own challenges when it comes to such a sizeable
scale-up, but also a significant opportunity for policies to drive
demand. Many of these policies can simultaneously incentivize the
maximum emissions reductions possible, as well as the scale-up of
CDR demand."
New regulatory and compliance demand drivers could lead to about
0.5 to 2.5 Gt CO2 per annum in durable CDR, covering up to 30% of
residual emissions. Some of these are:
- Carbon pricing mechanisms, including emissions trading schemes
and border carbon adjustments, could drive the largest share of
potential demand, with 1.3 Gt.
- Other significant levers include regulatory requirements in
aviation (up to 400 megatons), marine (up to 200 Mt), and power (up to 200 Mt).
- Coverage of residual emissions by durable CDR is expected to be
highest in Europe and North America, about 65%, and lowest in
Asia Pacific, around 20%.
- Addressing the remaining 70% of residuals, primarily located in
Asia Pacific, would require
reducing emissions further or increasing CDR demand further.
Methods for increasing CDR demand in Asia
Pacific and globally could include expanding the scope of
existing and proposed demand drivers and creating new durable CDR
demand drivers.
Download the publication here:
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2024/boosting-demand-for-carbon-dioxide-removal
Media Contact:
Eric
Gregoire
+1 617 850 3783
gregoire.eric@bcg.com
About Boston Consulting Group
Boston Consulting Group
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was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.
Today, we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational
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SOURCE Boston Consulting Group (BCG)