Eat my shorts
11/15/2004
Well, it continues ever onwards and upwards. 4800 breached on the FTSE 100. Why? Well, look at valuations, as I mentioned in my talk in Leeds. Maybe it has taken us until 2004 to forget the exuberance of 2000.
It is until now our expectations changed. It is now maybe we reacted to the downside so much, worked so hard in pushing share prices lower and worked so hard in getting good earnings that we forgot the price-earnings valuations on the FSTE 100 and the Dow are at 4 year lows.
Even if the FTSE 100 and Dow rose 20% they would be at acceptable longer term averages. Hmmm. Makes you excited for next year no? Property has topped out, that's for sure. After all, it's not your personal earnings rising, your employer's earnings are rising. That means property down, stocks up!
Look at Reuters for instance. Bet their earnings are up a lot more than their employee salaries. Bottom line: the stock quadruples but the employee's don't rush out to buy houses double the price of their old ones.
Got a fascinating book in the post on Saturday. If like me you like to know what has happened on the markets on this day in history, but also like to know what's coming up in terms of results - then you'll love this - 'The UK Stock Market Almanac 2005' - it's in the ADVFN bookstore and is by Stephen Eckett.
Value-Growth
On my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth, the following names come up. Remember they are for a 6 month outlook: BHP Billiton, Associated British Foods, Centrica and Speedy Hire (I have not repeated all of last week's names which remain on the radar).
Crazy Small Stock
These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my view, but will almost certainly not stand still. Names on the radar include Victoria Oil, Stream Group, Centurian Energy.
If you're an ADVFN reader and would like to join me for New Year's Eve, this is where I will be: www.puccinosnorth.com - and I am happy to talk about the markets. I hope to see you there! Also, If you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better' posted to you then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh@tradermind.com.
Spreadbetters
Spreadbetters and futures traders often look at hard and soft commodities. Here's my quick take on the action for the week ahead - and boy was I right last week - now where's that trumpet? If you'd like to know more about how to be as accurate, drop me an email with your name and address.
- Copper: up (called v right last week)
- $/£: mixed (called up last week and was right, but only a slight move up - looks toppy now)
- Crude Oil: down (called v right by me last week)
- Dow: Up (called v right by me last week)
- Gold: Mixed to Up (called right by me last week)
- FTSE 100: Mixed to Up (called right by me last week)
- Soyabean Oil: Mixed (called right last week)
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