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Alpesh Patel's columns :
10/23/2006	UK Markets Follow the Leader
10/06/2006	Eastern Europe and All That Jazz
09/26/2006	The Undecided Market >>
09/20/2006	Long Summer Into September
09/11/2006	Come on Markets - Get Back to Work
09/06/2006	Hurray its September and it is easier
08/30/2006	Last of the Quiet Time
08/23/2006	Roll On Work Time
08/15/2006	A Rabbit Like Market
08/07/2006	Looking both Ways
07/24/2006	"What a rally" or "What rally"?
07/17/2006	Quiet Summer on the Markets?
06/27/2006	Stock Analysis Principles
06/15/2006	Half-way point
05/31/2006	Almost Mid-Year...
05/08/2006	Almost Mid-Year
05/03/2006	New Month on Monday

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls

Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

The Undecided Market

09/26/2006

If you are confused about market direction then there is a good reason for that. It is because the market itself is clueless about direction too. We are entering into a squeeze presently between buyers and sellers and whichever the direction of the breakout, will be the direction to run with.

At the moment the clues will be in whether the market closes above the previous day's high point to see if there is strength or if it is actually a false rally. Even more important is if the market can string a couple of these together.

At present my confidence in the market finding direction is shot to pieces and so I will let it lead me, without my having strong convictions either way. I do not want to try to outsmart the markets. I am a trend-follower.

The benefit of that attitude is that it allows other people's money to get in first and then once they have cleared a path, I follow in. I think on a reward/risk basis I come out better.

The interesting thing when the market is so undecided is that often individual stocks doing well are rising because of their underlying quality, and not simply lots of money is entering the market. Consequently at times like these I like to see what is rising.

Of the FTSE 100, SABMiller has had a turnaround. AstraZeneca stands out too, as does Liberty International and Unilever.

(Don't forget to email me if you would like the presentation on the stocks I like for 2006, which I broadcast on BBC2 - the picks in the past two years produced a 83% compound return.)

Value-Growth

Based on my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth -remember they are for a 12 month outlook: Avon Rubber, Jarvis Securities, Vitec Group.

Remember I am targeting about 20-25% with the value growth criteria. Last year it produced 33% return.

On my momentum value indicator (which tracks stocks with value but which in the short term also have money going into the shares) I have only Jarvis Securities.

Crazy Small Stock

These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my view, but will almost certainly not stand still. Names on the radar include: AfriOre, Albidon.

Also, if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better', which covers spreadbetting, CFD trading and momentum indicators like the MACD, posted to you then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh.patel@tradermind.com.