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Alpesh Patel
Alpesh Patel's columns :
11/13/2003Now they have risen
11/07/2003From here until rate rises
10/30/2003The Best Advice from now until end Dec
09/29/2003Lessons in shorting
08/29/2003One Last Throw of the Dice
08/26/2003To hot in the kitchen. and everywhere else
06/18/2003Making Money, dosh, mullah
06/11/2003The Dollars Doing What?
05/30/2003Oh no, not more Europe?
05/23/2003More strategy ideas
03/03/2003Is it that bad?

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls
Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

The interest in Interest rates : beware and prepare.

04/13/2004

Will we or won't we - raise interest rates that is and which stocks are most likely to be impacted. For me as an investor looking to hold stocks for a week to two weeks I would rather look at stocks as they are performing now, assuming the market has the same insight as I do on what rates might do, than try to be too smart and predict the state of the world a week from now based on interest rate changes which may or may not occur.

So, for instance with momentum based trades - starting with small caps which I have not done for a while - Elementis is going through the roof, look for daily higher highs and exit on any lower low relative to the previous day.

A similar principle should be added for Vernalis. Capital & Regional is a more longer term upward trend. It could fall as low as 460p but still keep its longer term uptrend.

After sharp falls, ebookers looks like it wants to return to 450p and for those who held it at that price only a few weeks ago will be praying for it to do so. The momentum look promising but any drop below 300p would mean a complete back to the drawing board.

As long as Alphmeric stays above 80p - I am positive in the short term for it. It seems it's cool to be Indian - (what a relief) - and JP Morgan Fleming Indian Investment Trust has doubled in a year. The upward momentum has resumed as it breaks overhead resistance and the world's largest democracy goes to the vote this month.

Value-Growth

What about on my proprietary value-growth radar? These are stocks based on good valuations and strong revenue and earnings growth plus several other factors I put into the melting pot to cook up winners. So any newbies on there which I have not mentioned recently?

Yes indeed, Ennstone has come up but I am only positive if it moves above 42p. All the others I have mentioned recently and all are doing very well.

As I mentioned last week, "well, it does seem the Bank of England might be willing to raise rates without the Americans raising there's - that means they are willing to see a soaring exchange rate and complaints from exporters and increases in imports all to stop consumers spending. But it won't stop consumers spending. I see little reason why interest rates in 3 years will not be double there existing levels." Beware.


Alpesh B Patel, author of “Alpesh Patel on Stock Futures” available from the ADVFN bookstore.