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Alpesh Patel
Alpesh Patel's columns :
01/13/2004The Resolutions
01/02/2004The Year's High
12/22/2003Slow down or Ramp up?
12/16/2003Xmas Rally or Not?
12/09/2003That good news is bad for the markets
11/27/2003It's not Christmas Yet
11/13/2003Now they have risen
11/07/2003From here until rate rises
10/30/2003The Best Advice from now until end Dec
09/29/2003Lessons in shorting
08/29/2003One Last Throw of the Dice
08/26/2003To hot in the kitchen. and everywhere else
06/18/2003Making Money, dosh, mullah
06/11/2003The Dollars Doing What?
05/30/2003Oh no, not more Europe?
05/23/2003More strategy ideas

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls
Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

The Real Hot Stuff

06/21/2004

Nice weather eh? Warm, good for picnics…Forget it. Whilst you were sunbathing and having fun, rallies are underway. In the US, Yahoo, Apple, Ebay - are all trending higher.

This is no time for leisure and pleasure - get back to those screen…if you please.

Okay, here's the real hot stuff. SIG, in the FSTE 250 is still running up fairly well. Not necessarily a valuation play, but on pure momentum,. With support around 370p - I would definitely change my mind on it if it fell below that level however.

Cairn Energy of course continues roaring ahead. For short term traders it is the base at 1100p to watch for as support - if it breaks the analysis of a continued rally would be wrong. For the very risk averse it is the support level at 1150p.

Check out Findel too for a pure momentum play. Colt Telecom is showing an uptrend since breaking upwards from its downtrend. It's up 20% since the low and likely to climb in my view, but, but, but, I want to see it stay above 80p - else I will be wrong on my analysis.

Sportingbet caught my eye. With full year figures in the twelve months to March 31st showing sales up to £1.08 billion and pre-tax profit rocketing to £9.2m from a paltry £1.4m.

Although the stock has outperformed 98% of stocks in the past 12 months, the trend is in place and looks set to continue.

However, the stock is twice as risky based on volatility as the market average. Any liberalisation of the highly restrictive US online gambling laws, which would benefit the stock, would be a long time coming.

Value-Growth

On the value-growth screen I have which shows me which stocks are well-valued based on a number of my own criteria and also which are showing revenue growth, earning growth and also protected under a number of other criteria including dividend yields - I have some interesting new ones showing up: Findel again, Lookers, although the medium term trend is down, Hunting, but again, the medium term trend is down, Peacock Group, which although it has climbed sharply and so could drop, looks okay for now on a value-growth basis, Kingspan is also promising. Genus shows up, but the recent stratospheric rise means I am hesitant with it.

Don't forget you can get my new multimedia audio-visual CDROMs on 'How To Invest Better' from the ADVFN bookstore under 'Alpesh' in the search engine.

Crazy Small Stock

I get requests for 'high octane plays' - so here goes. Check out JKX Oil & Gas, ASOS is also a bit 'crazy' if it keeps above 30p, OverNet Data is your third.

All pure adrenalin momentum plays - not recommendations but simply 'crazy small stocks which may continue steep rises (or turn and burn) - but they almost certainly won't stand still.


Alpesh B Patel, author of “Alpesh Patel on Stock Futures” available from the ADVFN bookstore.