The View From Here
11/17/2005
This week I am in India (again) and Singapore, having returned from my hedge fund speech in Switzerland - thank god for hotels with wireless internet. Ahh, I am back in blighty on Monday, then off to India again for a day trip(!) 10 days later for a board meeting for ICICI's international private bank on whose Investment Advisory Committee I sit. Anyway, enough of the Alpesh 'Michael Palin' Patel diaries.
They say travel broadens the mind. I certainly think it helps the investment mind.
First things first, I want to invite my ADVFN readers to a reception I am hosting at the London Stock Exchange from 6pm on December 1st with refreshments and most importantly some of the stocks I like for 2006. First come, first served - so email me to reserve your free seat: Alpesh@tradermind.com.
You know in search of trends in difficult times I like to look at sectors and stocks which have done well over the past two weeks and three months. Tobacco continues to do very well. As does information technology and the insurance and electronics sectors too.
Now the reason I like to look at prices is because how on earth am I to forecast those sectors doing well in the present environment unless I see it with rising prices and money having moved in to push prices. After that, you can do all the ex post facto, 20-20 hindsight, 'after the event' smart ass talking you want. The fact of the matter is that money has flowed into these sectors. Will it stay or rotate out?
I am certainly impressed with the level of momentum and trend strength for the short-term in those sectors. Following trends makes more sense than forecasting prices.
Of the FTSE 100 stocks to catch my eye with their trends and strength are the unobvious ones like Exel, Glaxo, and Scottish Power.
Sure you continue to expect the mining stocks to do very well, but Pharmaceuticals have been a touch call for a while now. By the way, Next and GUS, both of whom I mentioned a few weeks ago as likely to be week because of a lack of a far eastern angle, and domestic consumption issues anyway, are still some of the worst performing FTSE 100 stocks. Do I see a turnaround? Well, I don't see the excitement. Not least as M&S (even M&S) starts capturing more spending pounds.
Value-Growth
Just some of the names from my Alpesh Patel Special Edition ShareScope trading software on my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth: Remember they are for a 6 month outlook: BAe Systems (still), EMAP (new), Greene King (returns), Rio Tinto and Rolls Royce (still)
Remember I am targeting about 20-25% with the value growth criteria. Last year it produced 33% return.
On my momentum value indicator (which tracks stocks with value but which in the short term also have money going into the shares) I have: Marks & Spencer (still), PSD Group, PD Ports, Lonmin, First Derivatives.
Crazy Small Stock
These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my view, but will almost certainly not stand still. Names on the radar include Alizyme, Autonomy, Dialight, Elementis, Keller.
Also, if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better', which covers spreadbetting, CFD trading and momentum indicators like the MACD, posted to you then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh@tradermind.com.
Spreadbetters
Spreadbetters and futures traders often look at hard and soft commodities. Here's my quick take on the action for the week ahead:
- Oil: Sideways to down
- Copper: Higher
- Gold: Sideways to higher
- £/$: Sideways to down
- Dow: up
- FTSE 100: Up
- Soyabean Oil: Down
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