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Alpesh Patel's columns :
06/15/2005	Media Manipulation
06/08/2005	India - Again
05/29/2005	When its game over
05/18/2005	The End of the Universe
05/11/2005	Hedge Fund Woes
05/04/2005	Downwards in an up market or upwards in a down market?
04/27/2005	Tougher than a gangsters granny
04/20/2005	Miserable or Not?
04/13/2005	Cap and Floor
04/04/2005	Misery of Joy?
03/23/2005	Time for Timestrip?
03/09/2005	Thinking about Investment Courses
03/02/2005	Thinking About Mistakes
02/25/2005	Itchy Teeth
02/16/2005	When does a stock story get old?
02/07/2005	Return Free Risk
01/24/2005	What You Need To Know >>
01/12/2005	What You Need To Know
12/21/2004	Year End
12/14/2004	Of Mountains and Markets
12/08/2004	Strong Dollar Policy and Other US Macho Nonesense
11/30/2004	Irish Eyes Are Smiling
11/22/2004	Oil. Oh it's so last month
11/15/2004	Eat my shorts
11/08/2004	Big Rally Big Fall
10/31/2004	Big Week
10/25/2004	Vacuum
10/15/2004	Dip and dive or dip and rise: 4600, 4700�4500.
10/11/2004	Oil making us boil.
09/27/2004	The Trends Re-Appear
09/27/2004	Oil
09/21/2004	No Retail Therapy Here
09/14/2004	Do you feel lucky punk?

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls

Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

What You Need To Know

01/24/2005

Until 28th Jan

The FTSE 100 trend upward since April 2003 is definitely still intact. As for the short-term it is showing a bearish warning sign. Those familiar with momentum indicators, such as my favourites, like the MACD and Stochastic, know about the advance warning such indicators give when they start making 'lower lows' and the price does not. Well that is happening presently - giving ample reason to look for a move to 4700 on the FTSE 100.

In January ITV is making the early running - up 12%. Cairn is another one which after almost monthly new oil discoveries in India, plunged in December for failing to meet expectations. Well it is now recovering and a touch to £14 seems likely in my book.

The major stock market indices making much of the running in 2005 include Construction and Building Material. Consider that interest rates will not change for at least 3 months. Electronic and Electrical Equipment makers are also doing well - looks like we'll spend on an iPod before food nowadays.

Momentum

Looking for the pure momentum price plays, ignoring value and growth for a moment the strongest trends are in the following and are worth examining: Wilmington Group, Carr's Mining, Invesco Recovery Trust 2005, Anglo Pacific Group.

Value-Growth

On my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth, the following names come up. Remember they are for a 6 month outlook: Gooch & Housego, Findel, BHP Billiton, Speedy Hire. I know they keep coming up - but there you are.

Bids

For those who like to look for bid candidates - here are my estimations: Capital Radio, UltraFrame (also for selling short) and Tribal Group (again, selling short).

Crazy Small Stock

These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my view, but will almost certainly not stand still. Names on the radar include: Antisoma, Safeland, Bisichi Mining.

Also, if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on 'Investing Better', which covers momentum indicators like the MACD, posted to you then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh@tradermind.com.