Former Fed Economist Blasts Central Banks' 'Frankenstein Lab' of Policy
September 14 2016 - 6:59PM
Dow Jones News
By Adam Creighton
WASHINGTON -- A former Federal Reserve economist slammed what he
considers central bankers' hubris and impotence Wednesday, likening
them to the "royal court at Versailles before the French
Revolution."
Jason Cummins, now chief U.S. economist and head of research at
hedge fund Brevan Howard Inc., said proposals to abolish cash,
extend negative interest rates and tinker with inflation targets --
what he called "the Frankenstein lab of monetary policy" -- would
be rejected by a public "fed up" with monetary experts.
"People don't like chess grandmasters siting around with other
Ph.D.s talking about getting rid of their money. That pisses people
off," he said at a conference at the Peterson Institute for
International Economics, referring to criticism of Harvard
University economics professor Kenneth Rogoff's latest book "The
Curse of Cash."
Mr. Rogoff, an actual chess grandmaster and former Federal
Reserve Board economist, later told The Wall Street Journal that
his book talked about getting rid of large bills, not all cash,
noting that Canada already has taken away the C$1,000 bill and that
the 500-euro note is being phased out. "You don't go writing a book
for what's going to happen tomorrow, but what'll happen long in the
future," he said.
Mr. Cummins had been invited to comment on a policy paper that
recommends central banks redouble their efforts to stimulate
economies through asset purchases, also known as quantitative
easing, and by pushing interest rates well below zero -- polices
that have been pursued with mixed results in Japan, Europe and the
U.S.
Mr. Cummins, who ran macroeconomic forecasting during his days
as a senior Fed economist, apologized and instead launched a
self-described "rant" on the failure, and potential demise, of
independent central banking. "You are not going to have independent
central bankers in the next 10 years if you keep on this path," he
warned.
He said the general public would have been "aghast" at the
seeming cluelessness of the monetary policy experts gathered at the
Kansas City Fed's recent conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
Mr. Cummins said the links between central banks and real
economic variables, such as growth and employment, had broken down;
and central banks had failed even to achieve their targets for
consumer price inflation.
"The economy has rolled over and died in an environment when
financial conditions have never been easier," he said. "People
aren't consuming, businesses aren't investing, they aren't buying
houses even with a 3.5% mortgage rate," he said, warning that the
"inchoate anger of the populace" might ultimately see a vote for a
"demagogue that would make Andrew Jackson look like Abraham
Lincoln."
"Worrying about whether the Fed will raise rates in September is
insanity," Mr. Cummins said. "Why not sideline discussion about
raising interest rates...and let's just wait till inflation is
actually 2%?"
Mr. Cummins said the public had been tricked into thinking
central banks are consequential. "The maestro culture created by
[former Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan has been one of the worst
features of central banking," he said.
Mr. Cummins -- who is also chairman of the U.S. Treasury's
Borrowing Advisory Committee, which advises the government on the
state of the economy -- said central banks' success at keeping
inflation low before the financial crisis had been good luck. "We
banked it as if we were the smartest people on the block; we
aren't."
"My biggest worry is that the public will conclude
that...capitalism is just socialism for the rich," he said.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 14, 2016 18:44 ET (22:44 GMT)
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