DiscoverGold
3 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 8, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 4, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 243.3k, down 18.4k.
Last week, after rallying for eight weeks in a row – since it ticked $2,608 on December 30th – gold dropped 3.6 percent. This week, the uptrend continued, as the metal added 2.3 percent to $2,914/ounce, which is well under the all-time high of $2,974 from the 24th last month. Sellers showed up at the highs as gold bugs struggled at $2,960s-70s for several sessions.
For now, gold could go either way – toward its record high or toward $2,800, which it broke out of on January 30th.
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DiscoverGold
3 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 8, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 29141 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. As of now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28961 and overhead resistance forming above at 29398. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 24th at 29740, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 15 weeks reaching a high during the week of February 24th at 29740. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 3.621% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 25415 as it has fallen back reaching only 28663 which still remains 12.77% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29740 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23793 and 31883. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 24th has exceeded the previous high of 27613 made back during the week of December 9th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 25415 made the week of November 11th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 28799. Additional support is to be found at 27320. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
5 days ago
Gold Holds Near Highs but Faces Potential Bearish Reversal
By: Bruce Powers | March 6, 2025
• After a strong rally, gold is testing key resistance, and a break below $2,891 could signal a deeper correction toward the $2,810–$2,813 support zone.
Gold continued to show strength on Thursday as it further consolidated near this week’s highs. On Tuesday a new high of $2,930 was reached for the current short-term rally. It followed a bullish reversal from support and a swing low at $2,833 (B) established last Friday. In addition, the closing price of the past two days was above the 20-Day MA, now at $2,909, and it looks like the same may happen today.
At the time of this writing, gold is trading in the top half of the day’s trading range, and it looks like it may end the day in a similar position. Also, a lower daily high and lower daily low will be established today, unless the week’s high at $2,930 is reclaimed before the end of the trading session.
Advance Completed a 78.6% Retracement
The completion of a 78.6% retracement was reached this week, and it was followed by a one-day bearish reversal signal today. This improves the chance that gold may see at least another leg down in the correction before it is through. There has only been one leg down so far, that ended at $2,833. Although the 20-Day line, which was previously dynamic support, was broken to the downside last Thursday, it followed the breakdown of another trending indicator, an uptrend line.
During the current advance the 20-Day line failed as resistance. However, the rising trendline shows a successful test of resistance around the trendline, which previously marked dynamic support. Might the trendline be tested again as resistance. Certainly, if there is an advance above this week’s high the trendline is a key area to watch for resistance.
Bearish Continuation Will Target $2,813
A bearish continuation of the one-day reversal signal will be indicated on a drop below today’s low of $2,891, as it triggers a bearish continuation. That will put gold in a position to test the next lower target zone, which is around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,813. The 38.2% retracement level is joined by the initial target for a falling ABCD pattern (purple) or zig zag pattern, at $2,810.
Since there are two indicators marking a similar price target ($2,813 to $2,810), it becomes more likely to be reached and show signs of support. A deeper bearish retracement following a new trend high in gold, should better prepare to continue to advance if a new high is triggered again. In the short-term the bull trend had gotten extended and due for a rest.
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Rebounds but Bearish Retracement May Resume Below $2,894
By: Bruce Powers | March 5, 2025
• After reclaiming the 20-Day MA, gold tested resistance at $2,930. A drop below $2,894 could confirm a continued bearish retracement.
Gold again tested resistance around the 78.6% retracement at $2,930 level on Wednesday with the day’s high of $2,930. The day’s high was slightly above Tuesday’s high of $2,928, and it followed a drop to support at $2,894 earlier in the trading session. Therefore, gold is set to complete the day with a higher daily high and higher low for the third day in a row. Also, the daily closing price may be at a high closing price for the bounce. Although these are short-term bullish indications, where they are occurring within the large pattern may have significance.
Bounce to Test Prior Support as Resistance
Following a new record high of $2,956 last week, gold pulled back below prior weekly lows and triggered a breakdown of a rising trendline and the 20-Day MA. Support was subsequently seen at a pullback low of $2,833 last Friday. The following rally was a three-day advance to Wednesday’s high of $2,930. However, the advance is likely a counter-trend rally to test previous support areas, unless there are clear additional bullish signs starting with a sustained advance above the record high of $2,956.
The 20-Day MA was tested as resistance yesterday and it failed as the line was reclaimed, reflecting short-term strength. Moreover, the close today is set to be above the 20-Day line. This is why multiple indicators are considered when analyzing a market.
Weakness Below $2,894 May Signal Bearish Reversal
The behavior of gold following last week’s breakdown is typical in the early stages of a bearish retracement. Key support levels are broken and eventually an upswing follows support, to some degree, to test prior support as resistance. Once that happens the decline may be ready to continue. An uptrend line and 20-Day MA previously marked dynamic support for the advance that followed an interim swing low in mid-December.
As noted above, resistance was not seen on a test of the 20-Day MA. However, it has been seen around resistance of the trendline. Certainly, gold could go a little higher and test the line. But if there is a drop below today’s low of $2,894 the counter-trend rally may be about to come to an end and a second leg down from the record high might have begun.
Next Lower Support Target Around $2,820
A declining ABCD pattern has been added to the chart assuming today’s high is a swing high. If it is not, the “C” point of the pattern would be adjusted accordingly. It points to an initial lower target at $2,820. That level is joined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,813. Together, they provide additional evidence for a likely test of the $2,820 to $2,813 support zone if the bearish retracement continues.
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Continues to Look at Shrinking US Dollar
By: Christopher Lewis | March 5, 2025
• The gold market continues to see a lot of reasons for the market to continue higher, as the markets are looking to the shrinking US dollar and lower rates in America.
Gold Technical Analysis
The gold market initially pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Wednesday to test the $2,900 level for support. We have in fact found support in that area. So now the question is, can we continue to go higher? The $2,950 level above is a significant short-term resistance barrier and if we can break above there, then I think you’ve got a real shot at the gold market looking towards the $3,000 level.
Short-term pullbacks will not only see the $2,900 offer in support, but if we were to break down below there, the $2,850 level is your next support level, with the 50-day EMA coming into the picture. Keep in mind this is a longer-term uptrend, and we are seeing the US dollar shrink a bit, and as a result, the gold market probably gets some type of boost from that alone. All things being equal, I do think that we are in the midst of forming a big bullish flag and that should send this market much higher.
If it does, in fact kick off, we could be looking at a move to $3300 or so. For now, my target is just $3300, and only if we can slice through the $3,000 level easily. I do question that because it is a large round psychologically significant figure. And anytime you get one of those, a lot of times you get options from traders and bigger traders trying to collect profit or even trying to turn the market around. So, watch the 3,000 level if and when we break out.
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DiscoverGold
7 days ago
Gold Counter-Trend Rally Hits Key Resistance – What’s Next?
By: Bruce Powers | March 4, 2025
• Gold’s rally to $2,928 tested key resistance but remains corrective. A bearish breakdown suggests another decline is likely unless prices reclaim key trend levels.
Gold continued its counter-trend rally to a high of $2,928 on Tuesday, thereby completing a 78.6% retracement and a successful test of resistance around a rising trendline. There was a breakdown of both the trendline and 20-Day MA last week. This week’s advance is to test prior support areas as resistance. Once resistance is seen, the bearish may be ready to resume.
Just based on basis price structure, there has only been one leg down from the $2,956 record high hit last week. Given the accompanying bearish indications noted above, plus a weekly reversal candle from last week, it seems likely that there will be at least one more decline before the correction is over. One more leg down should be a minimum, given the price history for gold.
Test of Resistance May be Complete
Since today’s high was marked by two indicators, it might be the top for the counter-trend rally. It is also a five-day high. Short-term strength was seen in today’s advance as the 20-Day MA was reclaimed and the day’s session looks likely to close above the 20-Day line, which is at $2,903. Nonetheless, the larger bull trend breakdown pattern remains dominant.
Although gold could continue to rise and test higher dynamic resistance levels indicated by the trendline, unless there is a daily close above the trendline or a rally above the record high, it looks more likely to continue the bearish correction. However, that might not happen immediately.
Possible Inside Week This Week
Given last week’s relatively wide trading range, this week’s price range could complete the week contained within last week’s range. That would set up an inside week for next week. Therefore, in the daily time frame this week could see consolidation above last week’s low of $ 2,833 and below today’s high. Near-term support is at today’s low of $2,882 and yesterday’s low of $2,855.
50-Day Support is Key
The 50-Day MA, now at $2,781, is a key potential support level during a bearish correction. Notice that the line continues to rise and is close to converging with the prior trend high at $2,790. There has not yet been a test of support for the 50-Day line since it was reclaimed in early January. Therefore, it should indicate support if reached during the current bearish retracement.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 1, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 261.6k, down 7k.
Gold bugs finally caught their breath. Gold dropped 3.6 percent this week to $2,848/ounce.
The metal had been rallying since it ticked $2,608 on December 30. Last week, it rallied 1.8 percent to $2,953/ounce; this was the eighth week in a row of positive weekly gains.
Concurrently, in five of eight sessions through last week, sellers showed up at $2,960s-70s. This continued in the first two sessions this week, with Monday tagging a fresh intraday all-time high of $2,974.
Ahead lies a crucial breakout retest at $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 1, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 28485 and is trading up about 7.85% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 28970 and support forming below at 27671. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 24th at 29740, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29740 to 28441. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29740 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25890 and 29394. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29740. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 28580 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 27035 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 28022. Additional support is to be found at 27156. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Drops to $2,833, Confirming Bearish Reversal Signals
By: Bruce Powers | February 28, 2025
• A weekly breakdown below $2,853 signals further bearish pressure, with gold eyeing key support at $2,813, $2,769, and a potential monthly breakdown.
Gold continued its bearish retracement on Friday with a drop to a new low of $2,833. At the time of this the decline triggered another weekly breakdown below the three-week low of $2,853 and further confirmed the transition to a bearish retracement. If the week ends with gold below that weekly low, another bearish signal will be confirmed.
Nonetheless, gold will complete a reversal week with a close likely near the lows of the week and below last week’s low of $2,878, if not the three-week low. In summary, this week’s price action shows increasing selling pressure and a greater chance of testing lower support levels before the correction is complete.
Selling Pressure Intensifies
Although the next lower target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,813 the decisiveness of the bears will likely lead to a test of lower price. The prior trend high of $2,790 is an obvious target but if selling pressure is retained that price level may be broken. Lower price levels are identified by at least two indicators as possible support zone.
The first is the 50-Day MA at $2,769, which has converged with the 50% retracement, also at $2,769. Since the next lower uptrend line is rising toward the 50% retracement zone, by the time gold approaches that potential support zone, the trendline may also need to be considered. This is assuming there is not a failure of the trendline to remain support.
Monthly Bearish Shooting Star for February
The longer time frame pattern is a concern given that the month of February ends today. Gold is set to complete the month with a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. However, it is not bearish until a breakdown triggers thereby confirming the pattern. Nonetheless, it shows the month ending in a relatively weak position relative to the month’s trading range.
The low for the month is $2,772, near where the 50-Day line is now. This will leave gold in a precarious position where a monthly breakdown could be triggered. Nonetheless, follow-through will be key. If the monthly bearish shooting start triggers to the downside, it opens the possibility of an eventual test of prior monthly resistance at $2,726 from December.
20-Day MA Marks Key Potential Resistance
Interim rallies can be watched for signs of resistance that may develop into bearish intraday reversal patterns. The 20-Day MA is an obvious line to be tested as resistance and it is now at $2,896. It can be combined with Tuesday low of $2,888 for a potential resistance zone.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Bearish Reversal Triggered as Sellers Take Control
By: Bruce Powers | February 27, 2025
• Gold broke below key support at $2,893, signaling bearish momentum. Further downside targets include $2,813 and $2,764, while resistance looms at $2,892 and $2,888.
Gold triggered a bearish reversal on Thursday as it fell through the 20-Day MA at $2,893 and a prior weekly low at $2,853. This is the first lower weekly low in eight weeks and when combined with the moving average breakdown shows sellers in control.
A reversal week is indicated if this week ends with gold below last week’s low of $2,878. The low for the day was $2,868 and gold continues to trade near the lows of the day, at the time of this writing. It looks likely to end today’s session in a bearish position, below the 20-Day MA and in the lower third of the day’s trading range.
Next Lower Target is $2,813
The next downside target is the three-week low at $2,813. However, given today’s bearish momentum and decline below key price levels, it looks likely that the three-week low will also fail as support. Further down is the minimum anticipated 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,813, which may show signs of support.
Nevertheless, once one key moving average is broken the next higher moving average becomes a potential target. Therefore, the 50-Day MA is a maximum lower target for the correction. It is currently at $2,764 and rising, therefore close to converging with the 50% retracement level at $2,769.
Lower Potential Targets
A long-term bull trend continuation signal was generated in late-January on a breakout above the prior trend high at $2,790. That price level was resistance for the uptrend for approximately 13 weeks before it was surpassed. Therefore, it could easily be tested as support during a bearish retracement. Furthermore, since the 50-Day line is rising, it could converge with the former $2,790 high before it is reached.
Or certainly be in the vicinity of that price level. Nonetheless, it can also be considered the top of a potential support range going down to the 50% retracement at $2,769. This is assuming that the 50-Day line matches or exceeds the 50% retracement in the coming days or weeks.
Signs of Strength to Face Downward Pressure
Rallies will likely be used by investors to exit long positions and enter shorts. The 20-Day MA at $2,892 is an obvious potential resistance along with the lows of the previous couple of days at $2,888. Finally, since the month of February ends tomorrow, gold is at risk of ending the month in a relatively weak position in the lower half of the month’s trading range.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Struggles Near Highs, Testing Critical Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | February 26, 2025
• Gold’s bullish trend faces pressure as support at $2,888 is tested. A break lower could lead to further declines toward the 50-Day MA.
Gold dropped to a low of $2,891 on Wednesday and thereby successfully tested support around the 20-Day MA, which is at $2,888 currently. An intraday bounce followed, and gold is back trading around the opening price, at the time of this writing. Nevertheless, bullish momentum has declined as gold consolidated near highs over the past couple of weeks. It is at risk of breaking below key trend support represented by the 20-Day MA, as well as an internal uptrend line. But the 20-Day line provides the more significant dynamic support levels.
Trend Support at Risk
Monday’s new record high of $2,956 completed a $373 or 14.5% advance when measured from the December swing low at $2,582. Notice that the angle of ascent of the trend steepened following that low and the subsequent reclaim of the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs. An upside breakout of a short resistance trendline also helped improve demand further. As the trend continued to rise following the December low, the rate of change in the price of gold increased. This dynamic can also be seen by the widening of the spread between the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA.
Bearish Potential
The accelerated advance is contained within a rising trend channel that shows the underlying angle of ascent for the larger bull trend pattern. Therefore, a decisive trend reversal signal could eventually see a test of support around the 50-Day MA or the lower trendline. Notably, there is a bearish divergence in the relative strength indicator (RSI) and it is trending down following some time in overbought territory.
If 20-Day MA Fails, the 50-Day MA Becomes a Target
Following the reclaim of the two moving averages, there has not yet been a pullback to test those lines as support until today when the 20-Day MA was tested. If the 20-Day line fails to hold, the 50-Day line becomes a potential target. This doesn’t mean that it will be achieved, but it certainly could be.
Other price levels that could see support include the prior trend high at $2,790 and a lower previous resistance zone starting around $2,726. However, if it is reached it shows a failure of support from both the 50-Day MA and the uptrend line. That would be bearish and open the possibility of testing the lower trend indicators represented by the 200-Day MA at $2,579 and an uptrend line.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Pulls Back After Failed Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | February 25, 2025
• After an unsuccessful breakout, gold is testing key support levels. A deeper correction could follow if $2,853 breaks, with downside targets at $2,790 and $2,754.
Gold has failed to follow through on a bull breakout of a pennant pattern triggered last week. On Tuesday, it fell sharply to a six-day low of $2,888 thereby triggering a breakdown of the pennant as the lower boundary line was broken. Support for the day was subsequently seen around a rising trendline. Gold looks set to end the day in a bearish position in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Since a failure of the bull breakout just occurred, it seems likely that potential support levels will be further tested before buyers take back control again.
20-Day MA is Key Trend Support
Key dynamic trend support is established by the 20-Day MA, currently at $2,880. The uptrend line provides a guide, but the 20-Day line deserves greater respect as the trendline could be broken while support of the 20-Day line is retained. Therefore, the 20-Day line along with previous price levels may help determine the potential scope of a pullback.
Last week’s low at $2,878 and the three-week low at $2,853 are weekly support levels to be aware of. The weekly pattern shows eight consecutive weeks of higher weekly highs and higher lows, including this week. However, this week is not over and if last week’s low fails to hold as support, the bullish weekly pattern will start to change. That could lead to a deeper correction or further consolidation.
Bearish RSI Divergence
There is a bearish divergence showing in the relative strength index (RSI) and a decline below a minor swing low on the RSI line just triggered. This would seem to be supportive of deeper or longer correction. Certainly, it shows a weakening of demand. Nonetheless, the reaction around key price levels will help provide a roadmap.
If the three-week low at $2,853 is broken, lower prices become more likely. A test of support at the prior trend high of $2,790 from October is an obvious potential downside target. It is followed by the 50-Day MA, around $2,754 currently. There is also an uptrend line slightly below the 50-Day line currently. It should also provide guidance if approached.
Strong Recent Performance
From the interim swing low of $2,582 in December, gold advanced by as much as $374 or 14.5% in 45 trading days, as of Monday’s new trend high of $2,956. That is a solid performance but also an indication some degree of rest is needed before gold it read to trend higher again.
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2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 22, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 268.7k, down 15.8k.
Gold bugs are clearly not in a mood to catch their breath. They have been rallying the metal since it ticked $2,608 on December 30. This week, it rallied 1.8 percent to $2,953/ounce. This was the eighth week in a row of positive weekly gains.
The yellow metal touched as high as $2,973 intraday Thursday – just past last week’s high of $2,969.
Concurrently, in five of the last eight sessions, gold has found sellers at $2,960s. Not surprisingly, the technicals are overbought – the daily particularly. Continued failure at this resistance will open the door toward a crucial breakout retest at $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 22, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 29532 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 29734 while it is still trading above last month's high of 28629.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28899 and overhead resistance forming above at 29565. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 17th at 29734, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29734 to 28876. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29734 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29734. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 29394 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Bullish Breakout Stalls, Bearish Risks Increasing
By: Bruce Powers | February 21, 2025
• Gold’s breakout momentum stalls, raising concerns of a potential reversal. A decisive move above $2,955 or below $2,917 will shape the next trend direction.
Despite the poor performance of a bull pennant breakout that triggered on Wednesday, gold managed to hold up near trend highs on Friday. Friday was another low volatility day with a relatively narrow range for the third day in a row. Nonetheless, Friday will likely establish a lower daily high and lower daily low for the first time in five days.
And if the closing price is near current levels at the time of this writing, it will close near the close of the prior two days and at the top boundary line of a bull pennant trend continuation pattern. That shows resistance at the top of the bullish pattern and therefore a failed breakout so far.
Failed Breakout
A failed bullish breakout has the potential to follow through in the opposite direction. In other words, the chance for a bearish reversal is increasing. Today’s low of $2,917 is key near-term support as a drop below it may lead to a test of support near the lower boundary line of the pennant and a possible drop through the bottom of the pattern. As of today, the lower line looks to be around Tuesday’s low of 2,892 and therefore it can be used as a proxy for the line.
Support Levels Look Solid
Nonetheless, if the line is broken then there is an interim minor swing low included in the pennant formation at $2.878. A little lower is a lower swing low and the bottom of the pennant at $2,864. Notice that today the 20-Day MA (purple) has risen to $2,862, almost matching the pennant bottom.
Those two indicators are key to the current advance. If either is broken to the downside and gold stays there, the likelihood of a deeper bearish retracement increases. The angle of ascent for the trend will then change, possibly to match the lower 50-Day MA, now at $2,743.
Bullish Possible May Yet Occur
Despite the slow start to the pennant breakout, a decisive advance above this week’s high of $2,955 would trigger a bullish continuation of the trend on the weekly time frame. And that would put gold on track to target higher price levels. A 300% extension shows a possible target at $2,982. Further up is another extended price target at $3,012.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Hits $2,955 Record High, but Momentum Weakens
By: Bruce Powers | February 20, 2025
• Gold reached a record $2,955 but showed weakness, with key support at $2,892 and resistance at $2,961, signaling potential trend direction for the coming days.
Gold continued its advance to a new record high of $2,955 on Thursday but at a muted pace. Similar behavior was seen on Wednesday, as gold is likely to end the day with a relatively narrow range and a bearish position within the day’s trading range, which was $2,924 to $2,955.
Although there was a higher daily high and higher low established today and for the past three days, yesterday’s closing price was below the top boundary line of the pennant and today may end the same. At the time of this writing, gold is trading in a relatively weak position in the lower third of the day’s trading range.
Second Low Momentum Day
Since this is the second day following a bullish breakout signal for a pennant pattern, and there is little sign of buyers jumping in, the pattern remains at risk of failure. Today’s low is near-term support and if it is undercut a drop towards the lower region of the pattern becomes possible. Another bearish signal triggers below yesterday’s low of $2,919. Since the bottom boundary line is dynamic, last Thursday’s low of $2,900 and this Tuesday’s low at $2,892 can help guide.
Above $2,892 Shows Strength
Nonetheless, a drop below $2,892 increases the chance that the bull pennant breakout has failed. If correct, a decline through the bottom of the pennant becomes possible. Other key potential support levels begin with the bottom of the pennant and a minor interim swing low is at $2,864. Notice that the important trend indicator, the 20-Day MA, is nearby to that swing low at $2,854 and rising.
The 20-Day MA represents the more significant potential support level. Notice that it has not yet been tested as support since it was reclaimed on January 7. This would seem to indicate that it has a good chance of being tested as support on a deeper pullback, at a minimum. Further down is the prior trend high and now a potential support zone at $2,790.
Upside Targets
On the upside, the next higher price target is $2,961. It is followed by potential resistance at $2,982 and then $3,012. With only one day remaining in the week, the closing position of gold within this week’s trading range may offer insights into its potential direction for the following week.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Record High but Struggles to Confirm Strength
By: Bruce Powers | February 19, 2025
• Gold’s bullish pennant breakout saw new highs, but weak momentum raises concerns. Key levels at $2,947 and $2,919 could determine the next move.
Gold triggered a bullish breakout of a pennant pattern on Wednesday and proceeded to rise above the prior high of $2,943 to reach a new record high of $2,947. However, given a likely weak closing price today there is the possibility of a failed breakout. At a minimum, today’s closing price would need to be above yesterday’s high of $2,937 to confirm strength, and better yet above last Friday’s high of $2,940.
Instead, gold is at risk of closing below Tuesday’s high as it is trading below that price level at the time of this writing. It looks like gold will end the day with a relatively narrow range that does not reflect a strong bullish breakout. That could change but for now the day’s price range provides key near-term price levels.
Pennant Breakout at Risk
The bull pennant has not failed yet, it is just getting off to a slow start and that is a concern. Nonetheless, what happens next will be important. A decisive rally above today’s high could lead to a test of the next target area around $2,961. Further up is a target derived from a long-term price pattern that began in 2022 and points to $2,982. Subsequently, a price zone from $3,012 to $3.043 marks the confluence of four targets. Since they are relatively close together, it may be most useful considering it as a range of potential resistance.
Top Channel Line Provides a Guide
Another guide is provided by a trendline across the top of a bullish trend channel. The potential resistance zone starting at $3,012 is in the price area around the top trendline. Also, notice that when considering that line along with the near-term uptrend line a rising bearish wedge type pattern is indicated.
Gold could rise towards a test of resistance near the top line and still hit the higher resistance zone before breaking above the line. As a matter of fact, the $3,012 price line is crossing the trendline today. An interesting coincidence or is the market telling us to watch that line? Let’s see.
Below $2,919 is Short-term Bearish
Given support at today’s low of $2,919, a decisive drop through that low opens the possibility of gold testing support around the lower end of the pennant consolidation pattern. Tuesday’s low of $2,892 provides a proxy for the line as of today. However, last Friday’s low at $2,877 is a minor interim swing low and therefore has greater significance as it is part of the bullish price structure.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Setups Up with Bullish Pennant Pattern
By: Bruce Powers | February 18, 2025
• Gold's strong breakout challenges recent bearish signals, with a bull pennant pattern suggesting further upside if resistance at $2,943 is decisively breached.
Gold came back strong on Tuesday and is on track to end the day at a new record high daily closing price. At the time of this writing, it reached a high for the day of $2,936 and it continues to trade near the highs. Nonetheless, it is on track to possibly close in the top quarter of the day’s trading range following a bullish breakout above Monday’s narrow range inside day. Even though there was a shortened trading day for futures, the one-day breakout is bullish, particularly since gold may have a strong close for the day.
Minor Pullback Shows Strength
There was only a minor pullback following the record high of $2,943 reached five days ago. And then there was an attempt to break out above that high last Friday before the sellers took back control and drove the price of gold lower. The day ended in a clearly bearish position near the lows of the day and having established a possible double top pattern.
A clear decline from a second high would be expected to lead to further weakness. But given today’s bullish price action the bearish implications of Friday’s trading activity seem to have diminished. Instead, gold could make another attempt to go higher before a deeper pullback and it may have some success. Regardless, indications of strength would be needed to indicate that gold may go higher.
Bull Pennant Forms
Since the new record high was hit last week a bull pennant pattern has formed on the daily chart for gold. It takes the form of a small symmetrical triangle. Today’s high price confirms the top boundary line of the pattern as there are three points touching the line. Therefore, a rise above today’s high of $2,937 would provide a bullish signal but with less confidence than a decisive breakout above last Friday’s high of $2,940.
A sustained bull breakout of the pennant would confirm the bullish reversal following an attempt to breakdown last Friday. Therefore, a bull breakout may have greater strength given the failure of the breakdown. Failed patterns can lead to sharp moves in the opposite direction. Nevertheless, gold could consolidate further within the pattern before it is ready to move.
Counters Last Week’s Bearish Indications
It is interesting to note that a similar situation would occur on a breakout above the $2,943 high, which is also a weekly high. Gold established a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern last week. It shows a weekly closing price in the lower third of the week’s price range. Although the one-week pattern needs to be confirmed by a breakdown below last week’s low, it nonetheless shows sellers in charge and the potential for further bearish price moves.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 16, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 284.5k, down 18k.
Gold’s upward momentum continued this week, but not before showing signs of fatigue. Up 0.5 percent this week to $2,901/ounce, it has rallied for seven consecutive weeks. The metal ticked $2,608 on December 30.
The yellow metal essentially went parabolic for a month and a half. This likely is coming to an end – not the move itself but the parabolic side to it. This Tuesday – a spinning top session – gold rallied as high as $2,969, but the bulls failed to keep the gains. As a result, a shooting star developed on the weekly. Weakness lies ahead.
Gold remains overbought on several timeframes. Ahead lies a crucial breakout retest at $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 15, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower making it an outside reversal to the downside warning that a further decline is possible. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 28637. Therefore, the closing below the previous low creates an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 2.50%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side. At the moment, the market remains bearish on our momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 28045 settling at 29454. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 29045 which we penetrated intraday and closed below warning this market is in a panic type sell-off. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 28637. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the sell-off is subsiding. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 29045
Previous... 28045
Tomorrow... 28637
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 29685. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28761 and overhead resistance forming above at 29070. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 10th at 29685, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29685 to 28799. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29685 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25596 and 29060. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29685. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 29346 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 26970 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Forecast: Gold & U.S. Stock Cycles Update
By: Jim Curry | February 9, 2025
As we move into the year 2025, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the configuration of the time cycles, for both the Gold market - as well as for U.S. stocks.
Gold, Short-Term
For the very short-term, until proven otherwise the upward phase of a dominant 10-day wave is seen as in force in the Gold market, with that cycle shown below:
In terms of time, this 10-day wave is next projected to bottom in the coming days, with any reversal below the 2874.20 figure (April, 2025 contract) being the best confirmation it has peaked. In terms of price, that action would put the 10-day moving average as the ideal magnet, though with the potential for additional weakness through the same.
Stepping back further, of more key focus now is the bigger 72-day wave. As per my last article back in December, this 72-day cycle was confirmed to have bottomed out back in mid-November of last year, and with that was favored to push higher into the mid-January to early-February timeframe - which we are now into.
Here again is our 72-day cycle in Gold:
Once this 72-day wave tops out, its next bottom (as projected by our 72-day detrend indicator) is due around the early-April window, plus or minus. In terms of price, our downside 'reversal point' for this 72-day cycle is currently set at the 2795.80 figure (April, 2025 contract).
With the above said and noted, any push below the 2795.80 figure - if seen at any point going forward - would confirm this 72-day wave to have topped, thus putting the 72-day moving average and lower 72-day cycle band as the expected magnets. This downside reversal point number is moving up every few days, with the most current number always posted in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader report.
With that, a countertrend correction with the 10-day cycle - if seen - would be expected to give way to a push back to or above whatever high that forms on the current upward phase. In terms of time, that would be favored to play out into mid-to-late February, which would then be the odds-on favorite to peak our larger 72-day component.
In terms of price, any short-term decline (such as with our aforementioned 10-day cycle) would need to remain above the 2795.80 figure, in order to keep the upward phase of the bigger 72-day cycle intact.
The Mid-Term View for Gold
From the comments made in my last article back in late-December, the assumption had been that the upward phase of our 72-day cycle would end up as countertrend, against the 2825.90 swing top from back in early-October. That peak was seen as our last top for the bigger 310-day wave, which is shown again on the chart below:
With Gold having taken out its early-October peak on the upward phase of our 72-day wave, that action now negates the downward phasing of our 310-day cycle. In other words, this particular cycle either bottomed very early - back in mid-November - or else is seeing some very extended upward phase, something of a rarity.
Adding to the notes above, if we look at our detrend that tracks this 310-day wave, we can see a good divergence having formed, which would support the idea of an extended cycle. Either way, prices can continue to extend higher for now, though - with the position of our smaller 72-day wave - any confirmed turn with that cycle would have decent odds of turning the bigger component.
For the bigger picture, I think the next mid-term buy for Gold will still come from a late-Spring, 2025 bottom, ideally made as close to the lower four-year channel as possible. In terms of patterns, that decline would be favored to end up as countertrend, before giving way to another 20%+ rally into later this year.
U.S. Stock Market, Mid-Term
For the mid-term picture in U.S. stocks, as mentioned in some of my prior articles, the 180 and 360-day time cycles were seen as pushing higher into the late-2024 to early-2025 region.
Here is the smaller 180-day cycle on the SPX:
In terms of time, the next trough for our 180-day wave is projected for April, which is also the general timeframe for a bottom with the 310-day cycle in Gold. In terms of price, a normal correction with this 180-day wave in stocks will take prices back to the rising 200-day moving average - and may also provide key mid-term support for the SPX.
The Presidential Cycle
Going further with the above, we are currently in 'post-election' year with the presidential cycle, which suggests a late-February low - followed by another low around the early-April timeframe - which is in line with our assessment with the 180-day time cycle. Here is a chart of the post-election year path:
From a Springtime bottom, the post-election year pattern turns higher into mid-to-late Summer - a rally which could be as much as 17-20% off the Spring bottom, based upon an average rally with our 180-day time cycle. From a July/August peak, the post-election path shows weakness into early-Autumn, before turning higher again into year-end. More on all as we continue to move forward.
Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 8, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 302.5k, up 3.1k.
Gold tried to unwind the overbought condition it was in by beginning with Monday’s intraday weakness ticking $2,802, and that was bought. This was a successful test of the prior highs of $2,802 posted on October 30 and $2,803 on January 29. By Friday, the yellow metal ticked $2,911 intraday – a fresh high – to end the session at $2,888/ounce. For the week, it jumped 1.9 percent. This was a sixth consecutive weekly gain.
Momentum is strong, although the daily remains extended. Should weakness develop, gold bugs will be tested if they can defend $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
NY Gold Futures - Pressing Higher »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 8, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 28876 and is trading up about 9.33% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 29106 while it is still trading above last month's high of 28629.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 28771.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 3rd at 29106, which was up 12 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29106 to 28022. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29106 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29106. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 28456 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Retreats After Hitting $2,882 Record High
By: Bruce Powers | February 6, 2025
• Gold retreated after reaching $2,882, signaling a potential pullback as it nears resistance, with $2,790 identified as key support in case of further weakness.
Following a new record high of $2,882 hit during Wednesday session, gold pulled back on Thursday and will likely leave a lower daily high and lower daily low for the day. Yesterday’s high follows the completion of an extended upside target from a rising ABCD pattern where the CD leg of the advance was 161.8% (golden ratio) of the first leg up, labeled AB.
Therefore, the advance in the price of gold during the second leg up has a harmonic relationship with the price change seen in the first leg. Once that happens, a potential pivot level has been identified. Given the subsequent bearish reaction following the $2, 882, it looks like the market recognized the area around the price target. Although it was not a direct hit, as the target was at $2,889, it was close enough given the bearish reaction.
Consolidation or Pullback May be Next
Moreover, the next potential resistance level on the chart is $2,940. That leaves a bit of a gap above the $2,889 price level to the next target. Gold will be in a better position to fill that gap and make a run for the next higher target price once there is a rest of some degree, either taking the form of a deeper pullback or consolidation. Gold has had a strong run rising as much as $300 or 11.6% since completing a swing low at $2,582 (C) in December.
On a relative performance basis, that is the strongest upswing of the prior eight and reflects strong underlying momentum. But it also indicates that at least a temporary high may have been reached, for now. The full upswing, beginning from the November swing low at $2,537 (A), had a gain of as much as $345 or 13.6%.
Further Weakness Indicated Below $2,834
A drop below today’s low of $2,834 will signal further weakness and increase the chance for a deeper pullback. The recent breakout level and prior trend high at 2,790 becomes a potential support area and has a good chance of being tested, at a minimum if a pullback deepens. If support is tested around that price level and it is followed by a bullish reversal, that will be a sign of strength and could end the correction, if it comes.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Extends Rally, but Overbought Signals Hint at Pullback
By: Bruce Powers | February 5, 2025
• Gold surged to a record $2,882 before resistance emerged, with overbought conditions signaling a potential pullback. Key support lies at $2,790 and $2,772.
Gold’s bull trend continued to rise on Wednesday as it hit a new record high of $2,882 before encountering resistance. Following that high gold began to pull back intraday and is currently trading near the midpoint of the day’s trading range, which is at 2,861. During Wednesday’s advance gold exceeded potential targets at $2,856 and $2,874, before stalling a little below the next higher target at $2,889.
That price level is the 161.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that began from the recent swing low at $2,537 (A). It shows a harmonic relationship between the first (AB) and second (CD) upswings. Once that occurs, the possibility of encountering resistance increases.
Price Reaching Overbought
Certainly, the price of gold looks to have gotten extended and is due for a correction of some degree. Both the intraday pullback today and the completion of an ABCD pattern target, point to that conclusion. Moreover, the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator reached an overbought of 76.50 today, like the 77.24 overbought reading listed at the minor interim swing high from late-September 2024.
Resistance Seen Following Day’s High
Overall, gold showed strength during Wednesday’s advance as it rose beyond lower targets, as noted above. Nonetheless, prices can go only so far before they are due for a price correction in a retracement. To what degree that might occur remains to be seen. And there is little sign of it yet. The upswing from the $2,582 swing low (C) completed a $300 or 11.6% rally as of today’s high at $2,882.
That level of performance exceeds the previous six rallies, which peaked at 8.6%. However, it is interesting to note that as gold was rising out of a base following the October 2023 lows, it did see similar stronger rallies, from 10.6% to 17.8%. Does the current 11.6% advance point to further strong momentum as the next leg up in the long-term bull trend begins?
Key Support Starts at $2,840
Further weakness is likely if there is a drop below today’s low of $2,840. The recent new trend high breakout level at $2,790 will then provide the first more significant potential support area. Also, this week’s low at $2,772 is a potential support level, assuming it is not broken before this week ends.
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