DiscoverGold
22 hours ago
Gold Precious Metal Poised for Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | March 27, 2025
• Gold's surge to a new high of $3,060 underscores its bullish momentum, with a close above $3,058 confirming a trend continuation.
It looks like gold is ready to head higher rather than establishing a deeper bearish correction first. Gold rallied to a new record high of $3,060 on Thursday and it is set to close in a bullish position, in the top quarter of the day’s trading range. The rally followed the low for the day at $3,033. At the time of this writing, gold continues to trade near the highs of the day. A daily close above the prior high at $3,058 will confirm the trend continuation breakout signal and more so if the week completes with gold above that price level.
Pointing Higher
The next higher target for gold is at $3,079, defined by the confluence of several Fibonacci levels. And it certainly can keep rising given today’s trend continuation signal. Following that price zone there is an early 78.6% target for the CD leg of a rising ABCD pattern at $3,125. Otherwise, watch the area around the rising trend channel line as it may mark a resistance area. After that the next confluence zone is around $3,148 and $3,154.
Top Channel Line May Be Tested
Gold’s behavior around the lower top trend channel line should be telling as it represents the top of a large ascending parallel trend channel from a low in October 2023. The larger the pattern, the more significant the price level may be. There is also a shorter and current trend channel on the chart highlighted in green. The top line from that channel is higher than the larger channel line. Notice that the $3,125 price level could be reached even if resistance was seen at the initial channel line. It will depend on how the angle of ascent for the advance.
Daily Close Above $3,057 Confirms Breakout
Regardless of the above bullish signs, a daily close above $3,057 is needed to confirm the breakout. Gold would need to fall below today’s low of $3,018 before giving a bearish signal. The 20-Day MA marks a key trend support area and will continue to do so if gold continues higher. Despite the possibility that the price is getting more extended, a projection from the closest ABCD pattern (not shown) has an initial target at $3,177.
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DiscoverGold
2 days ago
Gold Consolidates Near All-Time High, Key Support Levels Eyed
By: Bruce Powers | March 26, 2025
• Gold continues consolidating near record highs, with support at $2,999. A breakdown below key levels could shift momentum toward further downside.
Gold consolidated for a third day in a row on Wednesday and it will likely end the session with a relatively narrow inside day. The consolidation range runs from last Friday’s low of $2,999 to Tuesday’s high at $3,036. Each day’s price range for this week has been inside the range from last Friday.
This reflects continued demand as the consolidation pattern as the price of gold has held up not much lower than the recent all-time high at $3,057. On the weekly chart, a relatively narrow inside week has formed, reflecting consolidation on that time frame.
Weekly Bull Pattern
Last week’s low was $2,982 and it is part of the trend structure of higher weekly lows, and therefore a potential support area. If the current weekly uptrend pattern of higher weekly lows is to be retained, support for the pullback would need to be seen at or above that price area. Nevertheless, there is potential support a little lower starting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,971.
Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is rising, and it rose above the prior trend high of $2,956 today. The 20-Day line represents a key potential support zone following the reclaim of the line on March 12. It is now at $2,959. This pullback would be the first test of the 20-Day MA as support since then. Since it is also associated with other key initial price levels, there is a good chance that support is seen.
Intraday Pattern is Bearish
Although the short-term consolidation may continue to evolve a while longer, a drop below $2,999 will signal a continuation of the decline. Further insight is provided by the 1-Hour intraday chart (not shown). It shows a breakdown from a head and shoulders topping pattern last week, followed by two successful tests of resistance around the neckline of the pattern this week.
And there is a parallel trend channel or bear flag type pattern below the neckline. Lines for both the neckline and bottom of the channel can be seen on the enclosed daily chart. Therefore, a dip below Tuesday’s low of $3,007 may provide a sign of weakness that could lead to a drop below $2,999.
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DiscoverGold
3 days ago
Gold Short-Term Strength Tested Amid Key Fibonacci Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | March 25, 2025
• Gold hit resistance at $3,036 and reversed intraday, suggesting uncertainty between a bullish breakout above $3,047 or a deeper correction below $2,999.
Gold rallied into resistance at $3,036 on Tuesday as it retraced the recent small decline. A 61.8% retracement was completed at $3,043 before resistance was seen and gold turned back down intraday. The low for the day was $3,007 gold is set to establish a higher high and higher low for the day. At the time of this writing, gold is at risk of closing in a relatively weak position, below the halfway point for the day’s trading range. That would be at $3,021.64.
Tuesday’s Price Range Has Key Price Levels
Following a new record high of $3,058 reached last Thursday, gold dropped to a low of $2,999 on Friday. That remains the low of the bearish pullback so far, which is not much. Near the record high for gold is the 200% extended retracement of the late-October bearish correction at $3,043. There looks to be two basic scenarios now developing in gold.
Either the bull trend continues towards a higher target, or a bearish correction continues. A higher daily high and higher low today showed short-term strength following a very minor decline. But a bearish reversal intraday at the 61.8% retracement and subsequent decline intraday suggests the possibility that a continuation of the pullback may follow.
Above $3,058 Targets $3,080
A rise above today’s high of $3,036 will show strength but gold would need to get above last Friday’s high of $3,047 before there is an indication that gold may challenge the recent high before a deeper pullback. If gold can subsequently exceed the record high it should have a chance to approach the next higher target around $3,080, which shows confluence of a couple Fibonacci levels. In addition, there is a top trend channel line (green highlight) that may present resistance a little above the higher price target.
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 20-Day MA Support
On the downside, a drop below Tuesday’s low of $3,007 indicates a likely deeper pullback while that is signaled on a drop below Friday’s low and the weekly low at $2,999. Downside initial targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,972 and the prior trend high at $2,956. Notice that the 20-Day MA has converged with that prior high and it continues to rise. The 20-Day line is at $2,955 and it also presents an important short-term pullback target.
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DiscoverGold
5 days ago
Gold Cycle Update: U.S. Stocks Forming Key Low
By: Jim Curry | March 23, 2025
As mentioned in a prior article, the last correction of significance was due to play out with our 72-day time cycle, which ended up confirming a very early low - doing so with the late-February tag of 2844.10 (April, 2025 contract). With that, this wave is now seen as pushing higher overall into May, but with an in-between dip currently in force, coming from the smaller-degree cycles.
Gold, Short-Term
For the short-term picture, the smaller 10 and 20-day cycles are seen as heading slightly lower, with the next smaller-degree trough expected to come from these two waves. Shown below is the smaller 10-day component:
In terms of price, there is the potential for a drop back to the 10 and 20-day moving averages in the coming days, as these waves bottom out - with the lower 20-day average seen as key short-term support.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
Stepping back, the upward phase of our larger 72-day cycle is deemed to be in force, ideally pushing higher into May, plus or minus. Shown below is that 72-day wave:
If the upward phase of this 72-day cycle is to remain intact, then the next short-term decline with the smaller 10 and 20-day cycles would be favored to end up as countertrend, holding above the 2882.50 figure (April, 2025 contract) - their most recent bottom.
Stepping back then, a countertrend dip with the 10 and 20-day waves would be favored to give way to higher highs on the next swing up. In terms of price, the 3100 figure (April, 2025 contract) would be an ideal magnet to the next rally phase of these waves, with the same acting as a key resistance level, plus or minus.
Going further, adding weight to the idea of 3100 as a potential magnet - and a key resistance level - is the intersection of the extrapolated 34 and 72-day upper cycle channels, shown on the next chart:
Adding to the notes above, support to the current short-term downward phase with the 10 and 20-day cycles would be at or near the rising lower 34-day cycle channel - which is currently around the 2960's - not too far from the aforementioned 20-day moving average for Gold.
Stepping back further, as mentioned in our Gold Wave Trader report, a statistical analysis of the bigger 72-day cycle suggests the potential for an eventual push up to 3185-3240 into May, though an in-between correction could come from that 3100 figure.
The 310-Day Cycle
Above the 72-day cycle in Gold, there is a larger 310-day wave, which sets the direction for the mid-term trend:
With the January break to higher highs for the bigger swing (i.e., taking out the October, 2024 peak), the upward phase of this 310-day wave is seen as extended, though does have some potential to peak with the current upward phase of the smaller 72-day cycle.
In terms of price, we do have a key number with this 310-day cycle, which is the 2844.10 swing low from February. This number needs to hold any near-term downside going forward, in order to keep the 310-day cycle's extended upward phase intact.
U.S. Stock Market, Mid-Term
For the U.S. stock market, as mentioned in some of my prior articles the 180 and 360-day time cycles were seen as pushing higher into the late-2024 to early-2025 region - before topping, and giving way to a sharp decline into this Spring.
Here again is the smaller 180-day cycle on the S&P 500:
In terms of time, the trough for our 180-day wave has been projected for April of this year, but with a larger plus or minus variance in either direction - due to the size of the 180 and 360-day waves.
As mentioned in prior articles, a normal correction with this 180-day wave in U.S. stocks would take prices back to the rising 200-day moving average - which has obviously been met with the sharp decline off the mid-February peak. Since we are now below this 200-day moving average, it will also act as a first level of resistance.
With the above said and noted, the next low (and rally) of significance is expected to come from the 180 and 360-day waves in U.S. stocks, which are projected to bottom this Spring (i.e., April, plus or minus). Shown below is a combination forecast, from these 180 and 360-day cycles:
From a statistical inference with our smaller 180-day wave, there is the potential for a rally of some 17-20% off the next 180 and 360-day low, playing out into later this year. However, this will depend on whether the current correction phase of these waves ends up as countertrend, holding above the 5119.26 SPX CASH figure - the August, 2024 low - the last trough for our 180-day cycle.
In terms of price, it is too early to confirm an upside reversal point for these 180 and 360-day cycles, though one should ideally develop at some point. If triggered, it will be noted in our Market Turns report, which tracks the U.S. stock market; stay tuned.
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DiscoverGold
5 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 22, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 18, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 257.9k, up 21.8k.
There is no stopping the yellow metal. Gold added another 1.3 percent this week to $3,021/ounce, with Thursday registering a fresh intraday high of $3,057. This was an 11th up week in the last 12. Gold touched $2,608 on December 30th last year.
Not surprisingly, the metal remains overbought. In the event unwinding of this condition begins, what transpires at $2,960s-70s will be telling. Gold struggled at that range for two weeks last month before slightly coming under pressure and then bottoming on February 28th. The resistance was taken care of seven sessions ago.
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 22, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 30214 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. As of now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 30652 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28022. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 29740.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30171 and overhead resistance forming above at 30475. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 17th at 30652, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 30652 to 29914. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 30652 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 30652. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 30405 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 27917 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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BottomBounce
1 week ago
The ongoing gold price rally represents a dire warning for the future position of the U.S. dollar in international markets, according to Mohamed El-Erian, Former CEO of PIMCO and current president of Queens’ College, Cambridge.
“I think the gold issue is really important,” El-Erian said in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday morning ahead of the FOMC rate announcement. “You've heard me argue here [that] people cannot escape the dollar as a reserve currency, but they can start slowly doing two things. One is building pipes around it, and two, changing the asset allocation to include a little bit of other things. And gold is one of the other things.”
“This should be flashing yellow in Washington here, that if gold continues to go up, regardless of all this, it's broken down all its historical correlations,” he added. “There's something going on about the dollar internationally, and that's something that they have to take really seriously.” $GLD
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Rally Slows as Overbought Risks Emerge
By: Bruce Powers | March 20, 2025
• Gold’s strong weekly close suggests continued bullish momentum, but short-term risks remain if support at $3,026 fails.
Gold showed signs of slowing momentum on Thursday following a new record high of $3,058. And it has established another new daily high and daily low thereby keeping the daily uptrend structure intact. It showed strength by reaching a new record high and rising further above a price resistance zone that ended at $3,043. But it is at risk of completing the day in the red, below the opening price of $3,058, and at a lower daily closing price.
Pattern of Rising Closing Prices
Since the current leg of the rally began following a minor pullback to $2,880, now an interim swing low, each new day ended higher than the closing price of the prior day, except for one. That is a pattern that might change if Thursday’s trading session ends at a price below Wednesday’s closing price of $3,023. Nonetheless, the pattern of higher lows takes precedence, and it remains along with the pattern of higher daily highs.
Parallel Channels
There are two rising parallel trend channels shown on the chart. One is highlighted and the other shown with two rising blue parallel lines. The top of the channels provides an approximation of where signs of resistance may be seen. The top line of the larger channel is now lower and therefore would be approached next. Notice that it is crossing a small confluence zone around $3,080 today. That confluence zone marks the next higher target area. The lower channel line adds to its potential significance as a resistance zone.
Near Term Support at $3,026
Irrespective of the possibility of gold reaching higher targets before a pullback, a drop below today’s low of $3,026 might change that. It would be a sign of short-term weakness, but what happened next would be more important. For example, is the decline continuing or is there a quick recovery and rising prices? The price channels can assist in identifying oversold and overbought areas. Notice that the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator is in overbought condition as a top channel line is approached.
Likely Bullish Weekly Pattern
With one more day to the week, gold is on track to end the week in the top quarter of the period’s trading range. That would show strong bullish momentum on a larger time frame than the daily. If this occurs, then it would seem the next higher target zone may have a better chance of being reached next week.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Hits Another Record High
By: Bruce Powers | March 19, 2025
• Gold surged to a new record high, breaking key resistance at $3,043, but may face overbought conditions that could lead to a pullback.
Gold reached its fourth new record high in five days on Wednesday, rising to $3,052. A new higher daily high and higher daily low will be established and a relatively narrow range day. The low for the day was $3,023. Strength will be confirmed by the closing price for Wednesday. At the time of this writing, gold is trading in the top half of the day’s trading range, and it is on track to have its highest ever daily closing price today. That will leave it poised for a possible continuation higher.
Resistance Zone Busted
In addition to continued bullish performance, today’s advance busted through a potential resistance zone that ended around $3,043. A daily close above that price level would provide another piece of bullish evidence for the trend. Once one price pivot is busted the next level becomes a potential target. The next higher price zone on the chart shows a potential price target around $3,078. That target is the 261.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that began in November of last year. Notice that the target is also around potential resistance near two top trend channel lines. They can be watched as well since the $3,078 price level is nearby.
Bullish Weekly Pattern
Regardless of the potential for bullish continuation in the near-term, the price of gold is getting extended and due for a pullback or rest day or two, if not more. It remains to be seen whether a breakout through the $3,043 price zone will prevail or whether resistance will be seen before much more of an advance is seen. This week is set to be the third consecutive higher weekly high and higher weekly low, thereby establishing the weekly uptrend. Since last week’s high was $3,005, a weekly closing price above that high will confirm a bull trend breakout on the weekly time frame.
Support Levels
Today’s low of $3,023 is near-term support and weekly support is $2,982. A move through either of today’s price levels should help determine the next direction for gold. Rising trend channels are shown on the chart as they can assist in identifying when an asset may be overbought or oversold and targets. As with many consolidation patterns, once price is rejected from one boundary line of the pattern there is the possibility that price will eventually test the other side. Since the top two rising trend channels show upper boundary lines higher than current prices, the top lines become potential targets.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Hits Record High, Eyes $3,043 Resistance Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | March 18, 2025
• Gold surged to a record $3,038, maintaining strong momentum. A breakout above $3,043 could push prices higher, while below $2,999 signals potential weakness.
Gold ascended to a new record high of $3,038 on Tuesday. It continues to trade near the highs of the day at the time of this writing and could easily go higher before the end of the day’s trading session. Nonetheless, it is on track to close in a bullish position, near the highs of the day. A potential resistance zone was entered earlier in the day, but gold busted right through all potential resistance levels and is now challenging the top area of the price range that goes to $3,043.
If that price level is exceeded with conviction, gold will have a chance to reach the next higher target zone around $3,078. Notice that there is also a top trend channel line above current prices and on the way to the next potential resistance zone.
Strong Upward Momentum
Strong upward momentum was exhibited today by the relatively wide trading range and full green candlestick pattern. Buyers took control at the opening of the day’s session, and they remain in charge as the end of Tuesday’s session approaches. This doesn’t mean that gold will keep rising before a pullback, but it certainly could. As noted, a rise above today’s high will need to contend with potential resistance around the top of a previously identified price range at $3,043. If that high is not exceeded either a rest day that takes the form of an inside day could occur, or the beginning of a bearish pullback could begin.
Near-term Support at $2,999
A drop below today’s low of $2,999 would signal weakness and a likely deeper pullback to test support levels. Key potential support levels are at the prior high of $2,956, followed by the 20-Day MA at $2,931 along with a previous interim swing high at $2,930. Since two indicators are marking a similar potential support area, that area should be given added significance if it is approached.
Bullish on All Time Frames
Gold is bullish on all time frames and there is uncertainty in the global economic backdrop. Nonetheless, despite being overbought on the RSI gold could certainly go higher if additional bullish signals are triggered. Moreover, there is the possibility of an accelerated rally at some point given growing economic uncertainly. With that in mind, the top trend channel line noted above may provide added insight if it is approached.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold $GLD - $3000 Magnet Hit. Now stretching for my $3,050. Target...
By: Sahara | March 18, 2025
• $GOLD $GLD - $3000 Magnet Hit
Now stretching for my $3,050. Target...
Streaming giant Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is climbing out of the gate this morning, up 4.3% at $957.12, after landing an upgrade to "buy" from "neutral" at MoffettNathanson. The brokerage also hiked its price target by $250 to $1,000, an 8.9% upside to Friday's close of $918, citing the company's ability to enhance engagement monetization.
Over the past 12 months Netflix stock has climbed 55%, though its shorter-term performance has struggled. Since the start of 2025 the equity has inched 5% higher, with its most recent pullback captured by the ascending 120-day moving average. Today's pop puts the shares even closer to their Feb. 14 record high of $1,064.50, and on pace for their best day since Jan. 22.
Heading into today analyst sentiment was split. Despite a prolific market cap, there is still ample room for further upgrades, with 13 of the following analyst sporting a tepid "hold" or "sell" recommendation. Bull notes from a renewed bounce off the aforementioned trendline could keep the wind at the equity's back.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Three Reasons to Consider Gold
By: David Keller | March 14, 2025
• Gold has dramatically outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in 2025.
• Gold prices remain in a primary uptrend, with our Market Trend Model reading bullish on all time frames.
• Gold stocks are outperforming physical gold, and could represent a "catch up" trade going into Q2.
Even with an impressive run of relative performance thus far in 2025, some investors still remain skeptical of gold's uptrend. Let's look at the performance of gold through three different angles, all using the best practices of technical analysis.
Gold Has Dramatically Outperformed in 2025
Whether you think gold has merit as a store of value, as a safe haven, or for no reason at all, there is no denying that gold has registered much stronger returns than stocks so far in 2025.
The S&P 500 index is now down about 4.0% for the year, even with Friday's strong finish to the week. The Roundhill Big Tech ETF (MAGS) is down 12.4%, while the growth-heavy Nasdaq 100 is down about 6.2%. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), meanwhile, is up another 13.7% in 2025 after an exceptionally strong 2024.
There have been a number of times over my career where people have pushed back when gold is doing well. They have claimed that it's just an anomaly, or that it shouldn't go higher because of some particular reason. My answer is always to bring up the chart and remind us both, "The market doesn't care what we think!"
Gold Prices Remain in a Primary Uptrend
Let's break down gold's outperformance in greater detail using a daily chart of GLD. At a time when many stocks and ETFs have broken below moving average support, gold stands out as remaining above two upward-sloping moving averages.
GLD has featured two clear consolidation phases since the end of 2023, one from April to July of 2024, and the other from October through December 2024. In both cases, the ETF bounced off price support a number of times before eventually resolving these patterns to the upside. Consolidations are very common in long-term bullish phases. What's important is that the uptrend continues after the price exits the range, as we've often seen recently with GLD.
We can also apply our proprietary Market Trend Model to gold prices, which can help us to better compare the trend in gold to other ETFs and indexes. We can see that the GLD is currently bullish on all three time frames, compared to the S&P 500, which is now bearish on the short-term and medium-term time frames. When stocks are in a confirmed downtrend, I prefer to look for things that remain in primary uptrends, and gold fits the bill.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 15, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 11, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 236.1k, down 7.2k.
Gold bugs forced another breakout on Thursday. The metal struggled at $2,960s-70s for two weeks before coming under pressure a tad. This Thursday, gold broke out of this hurdle to cross $3,000 intraday. Come Friday, in a long-legged doji session, it printed a new intraday high of $3,017 before closing at $3,001/ounce. For the week, the yellow metal added three percent. Since ticking $2,608 on December 30th, this was the 10th up week in 11.
In the sessions ahead, what transpires at $2,960s-70s will be telling.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 15, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 30171. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 10 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 9 days. This market is trading above our normal trading envelope which resides at 29845 suggesting it is strong and still in a breakout position. Additionally, this market is very strong while our projected overhead resistance stands at 30263 and 30394.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Wed. Jun. 4, 2025. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 29704.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 10th at 30171, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 30171 to 28825. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 30171 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 30171. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 28842 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Continues Its Strong Rally for the Week
By: Christopher Lewis | March 14, 2025
• The gold market continues to look very strong, as we have now touched the $3000 level. This is a market that continues to see a lot of interest at the moment, as the world worries about geopolitical issues, and of course, tariff wars.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold markets initially pulled back just a bit during the early part of the week to break down below the $2,900 level but have since shot straight up in the air. This was a breakout of a small bullish flag that suggests that we could go as high as $3,300. And I do think that is more likely than not going to be what happens. That being said, we are hanging around the $3,000 level. So don’t be surprised at all if we see a little bit of a pullback in the short term in order to collect profit, that type of thing. Also, there are typically a lot of options traders in this general vicinity, and many traders have been involved in gold for some time now.
So, this is a scenario where there are plenty of value hunters underneath willing to take advantage of it. And I do think that the geopolitical and trading concerns around the world continue to make the gold markets very attractive to protect wealth. So, I’m looking to buy on dips, but if we were to break above the $3,010 level, then I think we’re just going to continue ripping to the upside to the $3,300 level. The $3,300 level, of course, will be attractive as a target for those who were paying close attention to this bullish flag. I have no interest whatsoever in shorting gold anytime soon as the longer-term trend is very obvious at this point in time.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Hits Record High, Eyes $3,004 on Strong Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | March 13, 2025
• Gold surged to a record $2,985, signaling strong bullish momentum. A close above $2,982 could drive prices higher, with $3,004 as the next target.
Bullish momentum in gold accelerated on Thursday as it broke out to a new record high of $2,985 before stalling. Trading continues near the highs of the day at the time of this writing and gold could go higher before the end of today’s trading session. An initial new high target zone from $2,978 to $2,982 was reached and exceeded slightly, a sign of strength.
A strong daily close in the upper third of the day’s trading range will keep gold in a position to continue higher. The start of the initial target zone at $2,978 was derived from a rising ABCD pattern, while the 127.2% extended target for the pattern is higher at $3,004. Nevertheless, there is an interim target at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bearish correction begun from the February peak.
Multiple Bullish Indications
Keep in mind that targets are all potential prices if certain things happen. For gold, a daily close above the $2,982 level shows strength that could lead to further upside in the near term. Today’s bull breakout was decisive and showed strong upward momentum. Moreover, a bull breakout of an inside week triggered this week, as well as a bullish monthly signal.
The last advance following a bull breakout of monthly consolidation in March of last year, was followed by a seven month advance until the recent $2,790 high. Although that might not happen this time, it shows the potential for higher prices. Also, bullish indications show the potential for a new phase to the uptrend. This means that pullback lower could lead to new entry setups to take advantage of the continuation of the rising long-term trend.
If Pullback, Could Test $2,956 Support
The reclaim of the 20-Day MA yesterday and successful test of support of the line with the low of the day, prepared the launch. A new high breakout just began and a new rally above the 20-Day line. Further, during the recent bearish correction the 20-Day went flat over the past week or so, but it did not turn down. It is now starting to turn up again. If a decline comes before new highs, key potential support levels, marked by the confluence of price levels on the chart, are around $2,956, $2,945, and a range from $2,936 to $2,930.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Breaks Above $2,930, Eyes New Record Highs
By: Bruce Powers | March 12, 2025
• Gold’s rally positions it for a record high attempt, with $2,990 in sight, yet bearish divergence in RSI suggests caution as underlying momentum slows.
Gold retained its upward momentum on Wednesday and triggered a breakout above a lower swing high at $2,930. The advance also broke out above the 78.6% retracement level, also at $2,930, where gold had been stalled for about six days. Moreover, the 20-Day MA at $2,913 was reclaimed and tested as support with the day’s low of $2,906. This shows the progression of a strengthening trend.
The high for the day is $2,940, at the time of this writing and a daily close above that high will confirm the strength of the breakout. Currently, trading continues above that price level and in the upper third of the day’s trading range. This puts gold in a position to possibly close at the second or third highest daily closing price ever.
Potential Challenge to Record High of $2,956
The recent bearish retracement to a swing low of $2,833 and subsequent rally puts gold in a strong position to potentially break out to a new record high. A new record high of $2,956 was established in late February, putting it in sight of the current advance.
The first new high target at $2,978 is established by a rising ABCD pattern that looks for price symmetry between the two recent upswings. It can be considered along with another target close by at $2,982. The next higher target above that price zone is at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the recent bearish correction at $2,990.
Weekly Breakout Confirms Strength
It is also significant that today’s bull breakout triggered a weekly breakout above last week’s high, which took the form of an inside week. A daily close this week above last week’s high of $2,930 will confirm the breakout on the weekly time frame.
Bearish RSI Divergence a Concern
Despite the bullish indications noted above, there is a concern about a bearish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI). It shows diminishing bullish momentum. In addition, last month ended with a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. So far, trading in March has been contained inside the $2,772 to $2,956 price range from February. As gold approaches the peak of last month’s price range it is at risk of losing momentum before a new record high. Selling pressure indicated by the monthly shooting star candle pattern shows the potential for increased selling pressure as the $2,956 record high is approached.
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3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 8, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 4, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 243.3k, down 18.4k.
Last week, after rallying for eight weeks in a row – since it ticked $2,608 on December 30th – gold dropped 3.6 percent. This week, the uptrend continued, as the metal added 2.3 percent to $2,914/ounce, which is well under the all-time high of $2,974 from the 24th last month. Sellers showed up at the highs as gold bugs struggled at $2,960s-70s for several sessions.
For now, gold could go either way – toward its record high or toward $2,800, which it broke out of on January 30th.
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3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 8, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 29141 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. As of now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28961 and overhead resistance forming above at 29398. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 24th at 29740, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 15 weeks reaching a high during the week of February 24th at 29740. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 3.621% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 25415 as it has fallen back reaching only 28663 which still remains 12.77% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29740 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23793 and 31883. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 24th has exceeded the previous high of 27613 made back during the week of December 9th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 25415 made the week of November 11th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 28799. Additional support is to be found at 27320. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Holds Near Highs but Faces Potential Bearish Reversal
By: Bruce Powers | March 6, 2025
• After a strong rally, gold is testing key resistance, and a break below $2,891 could signal a deeper correction toward the $2,810–$2,813 support zone.
Gold continued to show strength on Thursday as it further consolidated near this week’s highs. On Tuesday a new high of $2,930 was reached for the current short-term rally. It followed a bullish reversal from support and a swing low at $2,833 (B) established last Friday. In addition, the closing price of the past two days was above the 20-Day MA, now at $2,909, and it looks like the same may happen today.
At the time of this writing, gold is trading in the top half of the day’s trading range, and it looks like it may end the day in a similar position. Also, a lower daily high and lower daily low will be established today, unless the week’s high at $2,930 is reclaimed before the end of the trading session.
Advance Completed a 78.6% Retracement
The completion of a 78.6% retracement was reached this week, and it was followed by a one-day bearish reversal signal today. This improves the chance that gold may see at least another leg down in the correction before it is through. There has only been one leg down so far, that ended at $2,833. Although the 20-Day line, which was previously dynamic support, was broken to the downside last Thursday, it followed the breakdown of another trending indicator, an uptrend line.
During the current advance the 20-Day line failed as resistance. However, the rising trendline shows a successful test of resistance around the trendline, which previously marked dynamic support. Might the trendline be tested again as resistance. Certainly, if there is an advance above this week’s high the trendline is a key area to watch for resistance.
Bearish Continuation Will Target $2,813
A bearish continuation of the one-day reversal signal will be indicated on a drop below today’s low of $2,891, as it triggers a bearish continuation. That will put gold in a position to test the next lower target zone, which is around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,813. The 38.2% retracement level is joined by the initial target for a falling ABCD pattern (purple) or zig zag pattern, at $2,810.
Since there are two indicators marking a similar price target ($2,813 to $2,810), it becomes more likely to be reached and show signs of support. A deeper bearish retracement following a new trend high in gold, should better prepare to continue to advance if a new high is triggered again. In the short-term the bull trend had gotten extended and due for a rest.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Rebounds but Bearish Retracement May Resume Below $2,894
By: Bruce Powers | March 5, 2025
• After reclaiming the 20-Day MA, gold tested resistance at $2,930. A drop below $2,894 could confirm a continued bearish retracement.
Gold again tested resistance around the 78.6% retracement at $2,930 level on Wednesday with the day’s high of $2,930. The day’s high was slightly above Tuesday’s high of $2,928, and it followed a drop to support at $2,894 earlier in the trading session. Therefore, gold is set to complete the day with a higher daily high and higher low for the third day in a row. Also, the daily closing price may be at a high closing price for the bounce. Although these are short-term bullish indications, where they are occurring within the large pattern may have significance.
Bounce to Test Prior Support as Resistance
Following a new record high of $2,956 last week, gold pulled back below prior weekly lows and triggered a breakdown of a rising trendline and the 20-Day MA. Support was subsequently seen at a pullback low of $2,833 last Friday. The following rally was a three-day advance to Wednesday’s high of $2,930. However, the advance is likely a counter-trend rally to test previous support areas, unless there are clear additional bullish signs starting with a sustained advance above the record high of $2,956.
The 20-Day MA was tested as resistance yesterday and it failed as the line was reclaimed, reflecting short-term strength. Moreover, the close today is set to be above the 20-Day line. This is why multiple indicators are considered when analyzing a market.
Weakness Below $2,894 May Signal Bearish Reversal
The behavior of gold following last week’s breakdown is typical in the early stages of a bearish retracement. Key support levels are broken and eventually an upswing follows support, to some degree, to test prior support as resistance. Once that happens the decline may be ready to continue. An uptrend line and 20-Day MA previously marked dynamic support for the advance that followed an interim swing low in mid-December.
As noted above, resistance was not seen on a test of the 20-Day MA. However, it has been seen around resistance of the trendline. Certainly, gold could go a little higher and test the line. But if there is a drop below today’s low of $2,894 the counter-trend rally may be about to come to an end and a second leg down from the record high might have begun.
Next Lower Support Target Around $2,820
A declining ABCD pattern has been added to the chart assuming today’s high is a swing high. If it is not, the “C” point of the pattern would be adjusted accordingly. It points to an initial lower target at $2,820. That level is joined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,813. Together, they provide additional evidence for a likely test of the $2,820 to $2,813 support zone if the bearish retracement continues.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Look at Shrinking US Dollar
By: Christopher Lewis | March 5, 2025
• The gold market continues to see a lot of reasons for the market to continue higher, as the markets are looking to the shrinking US dollar and lower rates in America.
Gold Technical Analysis
The gold market initially pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Wednesday to test the $2,900 level for support. We have in fact found support in that area. So now the question is, can we continue to go higher? The $2,950 level above is a significant short-term resistance barrier and if we can break above there, then I think you’ve got a real shot at the gold market looking towards the $3,000 level.
Short-term pullbacks will not only see the $2,900 offer in support, but if we were to break down below there, the $2,850 level is your next support level, with the 50-day EMA coming into the picture. Keep in mind this is a longer-term uptrend, and we are seeing the US dollar shrink a bit, and as a result, the gold market probably gets some type of boost from that alone. All things being equal, I do think that we are in the midst of forming a big bullish flag and that should send this market much higher.
If it does, in fact kick off, we could be looking at a move to $3300 or so. For now, my target is just $3300, and only if we can slice through the $3,000 level easily. I do question that because it is a large round psychologically significant figure. And anytime you get one of those, a lot of times you get options from traders and bigger traders trying to collect profit or even trying to turn the market around. So, watch the 3,000 level if and when we break out.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Counter-Trend Rally Hits Key Resistance – What’s Next?
By: Bruce Powers | March 4, 2025
• Gold’s rally to $2,928 tested key resistance but remains corrective. A bearish breakdown suggests another decline is likely unless prices reclaim key trend levels.
Gold continued its counter-trend rally to a high of $2,928 on Tuesday, thereby completing a 78.6% retracement and a successful test of resistance around a rising trendline. There was a breakdown of both the trendline and 20-Day MA last week. This week’s advance is to test prior support areas as resistance. Once resistance is seen, the bearish may be ready to resume.
Just based on basis price structure, there has only been one leg down from the $2,956 record high hit last week. Given the accompanying bearish indications noted above, plus a weekly reversal candle from last week, it seems likely that there will be at least one more decline before the correction is over. One more leg down should be a minimum, given the price history for gold.
Test of Resistance May be Complete
Since today’s high was marked by two indicators, it might be the top for the counter-trend rally. It is also a five-day high. Short-term strength was seen in today’s advance as the 20-Day MA was reclaimed and the day’s session looks likely to close above the 20-Day line, which is at $2,903. Nonetheless, the larger bull trend breakdown pattern remains dominant.
Although gold could continue to rise and test higher dynamic resistance levels indicated by the trendline, unless there is a daily close above the trendline or a rally above the record high, it looks more likely to continue the bearish correction. However, that might not happen immediately.
Possible Inside Week This Week
Given last week’s relatively wide trading range, this week’s price range could complete the week contained within last week’s range. That would set up an inside week for next week. Therefore, in the daily time frame this week could see consolidation above last week’s low of $ 2,833 and below today’s high. Near-term support is at today’s low of $2,882 and yesterday’s low of $2,855.
50-Day Support is Key
The 50-Day MA, now at $2,781, is a key potential support level during a bearish correction. Notice that the line continues to rise and is close to converging with the prior trend high at $2,790. There has not yet been a test of support for the 50-Day line since it was reclaimed in early January. Therefore, it should indicate support if reached during the current bearish retracement.
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4 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 1, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 261.6k, down 7k.
Gold bugs finally caught their breath. Gold dropped 3.6 percent this week to $2,848/ounce.
The metal had been rallying since it ticked $2,608 on December 30. Last week, it rallied 1.8 percent to $2,953/ounce; this was the eighth week in a row of positive weekly gains.
Concurrently, in five of eight sessions through last week, sellers showed up at $2,960s-70s. This continued in the first two sessions this week, with Monday tagging a fresh intraday all-time high of $2,974.
Ahead lies a crucial breakout retest at $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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4 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 1, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 28485 and is trading up about 7.85% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 28970 and support forming below at 27671. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 24th at 29740, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29740 to 28441. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29740 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25890 and 29394. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29740. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 28580 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 27035 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 28022. Additional support is to be found at 27156. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Drops to $2,833, Confirming Bearish Reversal Signals
By: Bruce Powers | February 28, 2025
• A weekly breakdown below $2,853 signals further bearish pressure, with gold eyeing key support at $2,813, $2,769, and a potential monthly breakdown.
Gold continued its bearish retracement on Friday with a drop to a new low of $2,833. At the time of this the decline triggered another weekly breakdown below the three-week low of $2,853 and further confirmed the transition to a bearish retracement. If the week ends with gold below that weekly low, another bearish signal will be confirmed.
Nonetheless, gold will complete a reversal week with a close likely near the lows of the week and below last week’s low of $2,878, if not the three-week low. In summary, this week’s price action shows increasing selling pressure and a greater chance of testing lower support levels before the correction is complete.
Selling Pressure Intensifies
Although the next lower target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,813 the decisiveness of the bears will likely lead to a test of lower price. The prior trend high of $2,790 is an obvious target but if selling pressure is retained that price level may be broken. Lower price levels are identified by at least two indicators as possible support zone.
The first is the 50-Day MA at $2,769, which has converged with the 50% retracement, also at $2,769. Since the next lower uptrend line is rising toward the 50% retracement zone, by the time gold approaches that potential support zone, the trendline may also need to be considered. This is assuming there is not a failure of the trendline to remain support.
Monthly Bearish Shooting Star for February
The longer time frame pattern is a concern given that the month of February ends today. Gold is set to complete the month with a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. However, it is not bearish until a breakdown triggers thereby confirming the pattern. Nonetheless, it shows the month ending in a relatively weak position relative to the month’s trading range.
The low for the month is $2,772, near where the 50-Day line is now. This will leave gold in a precarious position where a monthly breakdown could be triggered. Nonetheless, follow-through will be key. If the monthly bearish shooting start triggers to the downside, it opens the possibility of an eventual test of prior monthly resistance at $2,726 from December.
20-Day MA Marks Key Potential Resistance
Interim rallies can be watched for signs of resistance that may develop into bearish intraday reversal patterns. The 20-Day MA is an obvious line to be tested as resistance and it is now at $2,896. It can be combined with Tuesday low of $2,888 for a potential resistance zone.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Bearish Reversal Triggered as Sellers Take Control
By: Bruce Powers | February 27, 2025
• Gold broke below key support at $2,893, signaling bearish momentum. Further downside targets include $2,813 and $2,764, while resistance looms at $2,892 and $2,888.
Gold triggered a bearish reversal on Thursday as it fell through the 20-Day MA at $2,893 and a prior weekly low at $2,853. This is the first lower weekly low in eight weeks and when combined with the moving average breakdown shows sellers in control.
A reversal week is indicated if this week ends with gold below last week’s low of $2,878. The low for the day was $2,868 and gold continues to trade near the lows of the day, at the time of this writing. It looks likely to end today’s session in a bearish position, below the 20-Day MA and in the lower third of the day’s trading range.
Next Lower Target is $2,813
The next downside target is the three-week low at $2,813. However, given today’s bearish momentum and decline below key price levels, it looks likely that the three-week low will also fail as support. Further down is the minimum anticipated 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,813, which may show signs of support.
Nevertheless, once one key moving average is broken the next higher moving average becomes a potential target. Therefore, the 50-Day MA is a maximum lower target for the correction. It is currently at $2,764 and rising, therefore close to converging with the 50% retracement level at $2,769.
Lower Potential Targets
A long-term bull trend continuation signal was generated in late-January on a breakout above the prior trend high at $2,790. That price level was resistance for the uptrend for approximately 13 weeks before it was surpassed. Therefore, it could easily be tested as support during a bearish retracement. Furthermore, since the 50-Day line is rising, it could converge with the former $2,790 high before it is reached.
Or certainly be in the vicinity of that price level. Nonetheless, it can also be considered the top of a potential support range going down to the 50% retracement at $2,769. This is assuming that the 50-Day line matches or exceeds the 50% retracement in the coming days or weeks.
Signs of Strength to Face Downward Pressure
Rallies will likely be used by investors to exit long positions and enter shorts. The 20-Day MA at $2,892 is an obvious potential resistance along with the lows of the previous couple of days at $2,888. Finally, since the month of February ends tomorrow, gold is at risk of ending the month in a relatively weak position in the lower half of the month’s trading range.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Struggles Near Highs, Testing Critical Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | February 26, 2025
• Gold’s bullish trend faces pressure as support at $2,888 is tested. A break lower could lead to further declines toward the 50-Day MA.
Gold dropped to a low of $2,891 on Wednesday and thereby successfully tested support around the 20-Day MA, which is at $2,888 currently. An intraday bounce followed, and gold is back trading around the opening price, at the time of this writing. Nevertheless, bullish momentum has declined as gold consolidated near highs over the past couple of weeks. It is at risk of breaking below key trend support represented by the 20-Day MA, as well as an internal uptrend line. But the 20-Day line provides the more significant dynamic support levels.
Trend Support at Risk
Monday’s new record high of $2,956 completed a $373 or 14.5% advance when measured from the December swing low at $2,582. Notice that the angle of ascent of the trend steepened following that low and the subsequent reclaim of the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs. An upside breakout of a short resistance trendline also helped improve demand further. As the trend continued to rise following the December low, the rate of change in the price of gold increased. This dynamic can also be seen by the widening of the spread between the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA.
Bearish Potential
The accelerated advance is contained within a rising trend channel that shows the underlying angle of ascent for the larger bull trend pattern. Therefore, a decisive trend reversal signal could eventually see a test of support around the 50-Day MA or the lower trendline. Notably, there is a bearish divergence in the relative strength indicator (RSI) and it is trending down following some time in overbought territory.
If 20-Day MA Fails, the 50-Day MA Becomes a Target
Following the reclaim of the two moving averages, there has not yet been a pullback to test those lines as support until today when the 20-Day MA was tested. If the 20-Day line fails to hold, the 50-Day line becomes a potential target. This doesn’t mean that it will be achieved, but it certainly could be.
Other price levels that could see support include the prior trend high at $2,790 and a lower previous resistance zone starting around $2,726. However, if it is reached it shows a failure of support from both the 50-Day MA and the uptrend line. That would be bearish and open the possibility of testing the lower trend indicators represented by the 200-Day MA at $2,579 and an uptrend line.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Pulls Back After Failed Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | February 25, 2025
• After an unsuccessful breakout, gold is testing key support levels. A deeper correction could follow if $2,853 breaks, with downside targets at $2,790 and $2,754.
Gold has failed to follow through on a bull breakout of a pennant pattern triggered last week. On Tuesday, it fell sharply to a six-day low of $2,888 thereby triggering a breakdown of the pennant as the lower boundary line was broken. Support for the day was subsequently seen around a rising trendline. Gold looks set to end the day in a bearish position in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Since a failure of the bull breakout just occurred, it seems likely that potential support levels will be further tested before buyers take back control again.
20-Day MA is Key Trend Support
Key dynamic trend support is established by the 20-Day MA, currently at $2,880. The uptrend line provides a guide, but the 20-Day line deserves greater respect as the trendline could be broken while support of the 20-Day line is retained. Therefore, the 20-Day line along with previous price levels may help determine the potential scope of a pullback.
Last week’s low at $2,878 and the three-week low at $2,853 are weekly support levels to be aware of. The weekly pattern shows eight consecutive weeks of higher weekly highs and higher lows, including this week. However, this week is not over and if last week’s low fails to hold as support, the bullish weekly pattern will start to change. That could lead to a deeper correction or further consolidation.
Bearish RSI Divergence
There is a bearish divergence showing in the relative strength index (RSI) and a decline below a minor swing low on the RSI line just triggered. This would seem to be supportive of deeper or longer correction. Certainly, it shows a weakening of demand. Nonetheless, the reaction around key price levels will help provide a roadmap.
If the three-week low at $2,853 is broken, lower prices become more likely. A test of support at the prior trend high of $2,790 from October is an obvious potential downside target. It is followed by the 50-Day MA, around $2,754 currently. There is also an uptrend line slightly below the 50-Day line currently. It should also provide guidance if approached.
Strong Recent Performance
From the interim swing low of $2,582 in December, gold advanced by as much as $374 or 14.5% in 45 trading days, as of Monday’s new trend high of $2,956. That is a solid performance but also an indication some degree of rest is needed before gold it read to trend higher again.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 22, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 268.7k, down 15.8k.
Gold bugs are clearly not in a mood to catch their breath. They have been rallying the metal since it ticked $2,608 on December 30. This week, it rallied 1.8 percent to $2,953/ounce. This was the eighth week in a row of positive weekly gains.
The yellow metal touched as high as $2,973 intraday Thursday – just past last week’s high of $2,969.
Concurrently, in five of the last eight sessions, gold has found sellers at $2,960s. Not surprisingly, the technicals are overbought – the daily particularly. Continued failure at this resistance will open the door toward a crucial breakout retest at $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 22, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 29532 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 29734 while it is still trading above last month's high of 28629.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28899 and overhead resistance forming above at 29565. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 17th at 29734, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29734 to 28876. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29734 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29734. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 29394 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Bullish Breakout Stalls, Bearish Risks Increasing
By: Bruce Powers | February 21, 2025
• Gold’s breakout momentum stalls, raising concerns of a potential reversal. A decisive move above $2,955 or below $2,917 will shape the next trend direction.
Despite the poor performance of a bull pennant breakout that triggered on Wednesday, gold managed to hold up near trend highs on Friday. Friday was another low volatility day with a relatively narrow range for the third day in a row. Nonetheless, Friday will likely establish a lower daily high and lower daily low for the first time in five days.
And if the closing price is near current levels at the time of this writing, it will close near the close of the prior two days and at the top boundary line of a bull pennant trend continuation pattern. That shows resistance at the top of the bullish pattern and therefore a failed breakout so far.
Failed Breakout
A failed bullish breakout has the potential to follow through in the opposite direction. In other words, the chance for a bearish reversal is increasing. Today’s low of $2,917 is key near-term support as a drop below it may lead to a test of support near the lower boundary line of the pennant and a possible drop through the bottom of the pattern. As of today, the lower line looks to be around Tuesday’s low of 2,892 and therefore it can be used as a proxy for the line.
Support Levels Look Solid
Nonetheless, if the line is broken then there is an interim minor swing low included in the pennant formation at $2.878. A little lower is a lower swing low and the bottom of the pennant at $2,864. Notice that today the 20-Day MA (purple) has risen to $2,862, almost matching the pennant bottom.
Those two indicators are key to the current advance. If either is broken to the downside and gold stays there, the likelihood of a deeper bearish retracement increases. The angle of ascent for the trend will then change, possibly to match the lower 50-Day MA, now at $2,743.
Bullish Possible May Yet Occur
Despite the slow start to the pennant breakout, a decisive advance above this week’s high of $2,955 would trigger a bullish continuation of the trend on the weekly time frame. And that would put gold on track to target higher price levels. A 300% extension shows a possible target at $2,982. Further up is another extended price target at $3,012.
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