Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) Options

If someone sold the $12 puts for ~$4.30 and bought the $12 calls for $2 then that is pretty much a wash at this price level: bullish because anything over $9.70 is profitable with accelerating profitability over $12.

Seems risky unless the 3-71 data is very strong because MAA will not be acted upon (approval or rejection) until March 2026.

Iborrowdesk site and AVXL is 20.1% there 20K shares available."To the Moon Alice" Shorts rammed the price down with 90K shares around 11:30AM today and the MOC came in at about 85K shares. We end up down a nickel. Yes, I grabbed a few of those cheap shares today. It is 5 O'clock somewhere. Time for a beer!
John k9uwa

I wouldn't hold my breath on legislation that has already failed multiple times, sponsored by an unpopular Senator. The information is more interesting for what it suggests is happening within the blarcamesine MAA process.

FYI: The up channel is still in force (it's a minor upwards channel that has been in force since the low below $8 (about 16 days, NO BREAKDOWN (yet)....what we have on the daily price chart is a "double back test" to the 50 day sma....yes, it's certainly possible to see the price drop to below that level, but as of now....no cigar for the bears!

It appears quite obviously that some people expect an approval by the EMA for Anavex’s blarcamesine to receive approval to begin selling in the over 2 dozen countries on the EU by or before October 2025.

Good luck and GOD bless,

Does that mean that the shorts think SP will go down further?
Or they're building The Short Covering of the Year?
Maybe both. : )

AVXL$$

Can anybody make some sense of the October 12 calls and puts? Some hedging probably but over 1000 contracts traded for each.

Wow....... so it means MAA approval = FDA approval if the "RESULT ACT" is passed.
Patiently waiting for the day
ANVX$$

There are no, at least not biotech, WGT stock out there! Don't fall irrationally in love with one - be investors!

feel sorry for those guys over at SAVA. I remember when it ran up to $120+ on that PH 2 're-evaluation' BS. I recommended
to the folks on the board to take the gift they were given. There were one or two that at least sold covered calls as the price fell
back. But a lot of complaining how the market wasn't getting it right as the price fell to $33-40 range.

Then they got walloped hard on the next round of bad news. And now this... Ugh...

I suspect that 2-73 may not be on the market in 10-15 years. 3-71 and other drugs will replace it, and that's a good thing. That means better results for people with CNS issues.

10 years is plenty of time for 2-73 to make Anavex a ton of money and help a lot of people.

2-73 may not be worth much in 10 years and Anavex will be worth a whole lot.

First we need approval !!!!

I just checked the Iborrowdesk site and AVXL is 20.1% there with 20K shares available.

Exactly. One could also say that your individual vote is immaterial to an election. True. But collectively they matter. 

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Anavex Life Sciences - Segmentation and Classification:

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This argument is a variant of the one Investor uses to argue against the fact that ~83 percent of all MAA applications get approved.

The argument here is that aggregate behavior is what counts, not individual actions. We contribute to a greater function, a public marketplace, that has helped Anavex to exist as a company. And, yes, no individual's decision is at all determinative. Both things are true.

Anavex wouldn't have sent Nell Rebowe to meet with Ted Cruz to support his RESULT Act had they received an 80 day letter last week that informed the company its MAA would be disapproved because there was only one 2b/3 AD trial. (Not that such a negative statement was ever in the cards.)

Probably because their small open label P2a trial sleep and other data was only indicative and doesn't all hold up in a larger RCT.

Looking at the larger chart picture, intermediate term pattern, time periods of a few months to half year, to a year...the larger waves... not short term trade waves. ... the latest wave was a rally from the 7.80 area to 10.20 area. Also like saying 8 to 10. The 50% Fib pullback targets 9.00 area, and overshoot looks at 8.75 area. Those can be considered normal pullback targets. In play now. as is the first step along the way, 9.25 area.

Unfortunately the peer reviewed article in JPAD does not give us sleep data as it was not a secondary end point. I wonder if we will ever see that data.

No sleep data has been reported. Disclosure, if positive, is unlikely to move the needle much. More likely, the data is non-significant, and won't ever be released. The 2b/3 had two sleep scales measured at baseline and every 12 weeks, the RSCAQ (retrospective sleep continuity assessment questionnaire) and the ISI (Insomnia severity index). These can give a measure of sleep quality and insomnia but are subjective, reported by the patient in the morning. The study did not include PSG or actigraphy that capable of objectively measuring or inferring wakefulness, NREM and REM sleep time/percent, respectively. Multiple studies have shown an association with sleep disturbances including reduced Stage 3 NREM sleep in the development and perhaps progression of AD. I would not hold my breath for the sleep scale data. 5 years out, we still have not seen the actigraphy data from the PDD.

The company has not made mention of it lately but in the past it noted improved sleep as one of the secondary effects of Blarcamasine.

Poor sleep behavior is a common complaint among AD sufferers.
This article indicates non REM sleep as a component of the process by which memories are stored and would be relevant in AD.

Unfortunately the peer reviewed article in JPAD does not give us sleep data as it was not a secondary end point. I wonder if we will ever see that data.

Yes, I see that too. Ugly looking plunge. From Resistance area 9.60/9.70, that I noticed to anticipate. The peak of the rally at 10.20/10.15/10.00/rolling over at 9.85 area, and plunging down yesterday to 9.30, looked a little harsh as well... and confirmed this pullback wave. I had marked the target area as 9.50/40/30 ... which happened to bounce at 9.30. So here we are now fumbling around 9.40 area. Below 9.30 would look like 9 dollars to me, and technical buy target zone 9.00/8.80/8.70. I see some chart points , moving avg. there.

You are simply a stone on the stream bed. The water flows around and above you (and me.) The notion that you are important is, IMO, incorrect. Your point is that somehow you (we) are important to the overall market for Anavex shares and that is important for Anavex when they sell more shares. But, no...the material state of the business is what sets the price. We are not material ourselves as investors. You (and I) could sell our shares in 5 minutes and it would make no difference excapt in a small way for a very short time.

The tricksters continue.
1minute chart shows normal trading. Then someone cannot stand 9.61 as support and blasts price heavily. Heavy hand still pushing down and currently price hits 9.40 low. Nasty bears, especially with news expectation and price moving so well last 3 weeks.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2025/3/25/hrrcdScreen_Shot_2025-03-25_at_9.34.18_AM.png

Here is a 3 day 5minute view of their shenanigans.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2025/3/25/bkglsScreen_Shot_2025-03-25_at_9.41.15_AM.png

Maurice Tangui has been around for a very long time. He's too old to bring anything to the finish line, so I think he's looking to cash in by selling his new company if he manages to make any progress.

"We welcome SAVA investors!"

1. Very few of them have any money any more.

2. They were never investors.

How Sleep Rewrites the Brain to Strengthen and Optimize Memories

https://neurosciencenews.com/sleep-memory-optimization-28509/

Good luck and GOD bless,

Your answer is probably as good as mine - almost!

Does that mean our AVXL shares will be wortless in 10–15 years?

Options purchase is treated as Cap Gains rates... as long as he then holds all for some period of time. His rate would be 24% or else 19% depending on his taxable income. definitely not 50%.
John k9uwa

Some of them, kund not included!

Sad. All the time, money, effort wasted. Not to mention the hope, expectation and excitement for the patients, caregivers, and investors.  

They may be confident that they can develop a SR1 agonist that works better and with less tolerability issues than A2-73 - and they are in a good position do so with in depth knowledge.

We welcome SAVA investors!

WGT are gasping at straw....Last time Mayo got excited when model posted picture with Elon's mom.

SAVA finally admits defeat.
https://stocks.apple.com/Acnejg0lSRJu5GWJQXhXofQ

The AAIC 2025 Conference corresponds at just about 210 days from EMA acceptance of Anavex’s blarcamesine review!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,

Alzheimer's Association International Conference® (AAIC®) 2025
July 27-31, 2025 > Toronto, Canada, and Online

⏳⏳⏳

Senator Cruz’s RESULT Act Contains a Particular View of the FDA’s Role – But What About CMS?

https://petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2015/12/18/senator-cruzs-result-act-contains-a-particular-view-of-the-fdas-role-but-what-about-cms/

Good luck and GOD bless,

Go, Nell!! Thank you, boi. If Trump were behind the Cruz' RESULT ACT, it will pass.

Correct. What happens on the secondary market will affect future capital raises. A company that has a strong demand for its shares doesn't need to issue as many new shares, and can do so at a higher price. If it chooses to issue debt, a healthy balance sheet will always get better rates than a company running on fumes. And how much money a pre-revenue company can raise has strong correlation to how long it can survive.

Shorts can take down a healthy company the same way a million ants can take down an elephant. It's not easy but it's possible. Drive the stock price so low that the amount of shares required for a current raise will preclude future raises because of the toxic funding spiral.

I get what Hoskuld is saying but to argue that the secondary market operates within a vacuum is simply incorrect.

In a somewhat abstract economic theory sense, those who buy in the secondary market encourage and enable fundraising in the primary market, because it assures liquidity. I think that is his or her main (only?) point. 

That was a pretty roundabout way of not responding to the main point. Yes, I bought shares from someone else. The purchase price I am willing to pay affects the overall price (collectively speaking), which does in fact affect the company. Anavex's finances aren't in a vacuum. Money flows in and out of the company. At some point, Anavex needed and will need more money. If it's not producing revenue, it must take on debt or issue new shares to stay alive, both of which will be way more expensive if investor sentiment is negative. When it becomes too expensive, money drains up and the company dies.

It's the same reason that if a country goes to war and enough people say "No," they will vote for different politicians who will end the war. Are the voters literally strapping on boots and loading their weapons and drawing up military strategy in some tent in the jungle? Of course not. But the war cannot continue indefinitely without public support.

Anavex is in the same situation.

But if they submitted for approval, it would show they thought they could handle any questions/concerns from the fda.

Most of us are waiting for the FDA to release them from the FDA's guidance, and our inclusion of ADL. It should have never been included in an early AZ trial. Getting statistical significance for something that accelerates well into AZ is a setup for failure.

Expect great news next week regarding AVXL

Good luck and GOD bless,

Monday on Fidelity the borrowing rate jumped from 4 to 4.625%
Today the borrowing rate jumped from 4.625% to 5.875% today

Sorry, BL, pretty terrible analogy. You bought shares from other shareholders who sold shares. You are not part of the company - not the 12th man. You aren’t curing AD, you aren’t making decisions or running trials. You may be emotionally attached to the stock but the stock doesn’t know you exist.

Cassava Sciences to discontinue all efforts to develop simufilam in Alzheimer's
"We are disappointed that the results of
REFOCUS-ALZ and RETHINK-ALZ showed no treatment benefit for patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease. These results were unambiguous," said Rick Barry, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cassava. "Cassava will discontinue all efforts to develop simufilam for Alzheimer's disease and we expect to phase out the program by the end of Q2 2025.
We remain dedicated to our mission of developing novel medicines for central nervous system disorders. While we have initiated preclinical studies to evaluate simufilam's potential as a treatment for TSC-related epilepsy, we maintain ongoing strategic expense management efforts."

Looks like the SAVA news will just drag us down too. Off to the course. I think I know where the stock is headed today. Same old same old.

Not for nothing, but to say that investors don't play a significant role isn't accurate either. It's not the best analogy but there's a reason why they call football fans the "12th man." Fans are the lifeblood of any pro sports team. Without them, there's no revenue which means there's no money to pay good players which means the team performs poorly and as the cycle continues, what eventually happens is relegation (soccer) or relocation (see: Oakland sports teams).

By your standard, shorts also don't play a meaningful role because they only operate and trade at the secondary market level. But enough short pressure can kill an otherwise healthy company if it cannot stay listed on a major exchange and loses access to various capital sources, thereby becoming dependent on toxic lenders which leads to death spiral financing and reduced investor interest, making each fundraising round more expensive to the point where the firm can no longer raise cash and ultimately sells off its assets in a pre-packaged fire-sale.

Just like in sports, with publicly traded companies eventually it's all about the money. Investors may not be on the front lines making decisions, but where and how they choose to invest their cash does have widespread and longterm implications, especially for pre-revenue companies that depend on investor sentiment for survival.