NIO Inc (NIO) Options

The plan by the hedge fund manipulators and big investment houses. Give NIO and upside evaluation at $4.70 to create a psychological barrier. Let it run up to $4.70 then short it down. The big investment houses make a killing by lending shares to short positions. Their aim is suck out money from retail investors. The actual stock means nothing to them.

An overhead light fixture doesn’t have the fire load to cause the amount of smoke and fire seen in the video.
Something else is going on.. sabotage of the light fixture or video manipulation. I believe NIO is at war with a Stock Shorting Syndicate.
Short sellers have a lawsuit against NIO accusing the company of fraudulent earnings reports that caused a short squeeze. Evidently the shorts lost a ton of money when NiO’s PPS ran up to $60.

Short timing… Nio Reports Fire at Battery Swap Station Caused by Roof Lighting Issue [Video]

This is a video manipulation hit job.

https://eletric-vehicles.com/nio/nio-reports-fire-at-battery-swap-station-caused-by-roof-lighting-issue-video/

New NIO ET9 “SkyRide” Incorporates Steer-by-Wire System from ZF
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/02/20/new-nio-et9-skyride-incorporates-steer-by-wire-system-from-zf/

NIO Claps Back At Tesla Battery Swapping Claims

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NIO has completed more than 66 million battery swaps at its 3,000+ battery swapping stations. Tesla had one battery swapping station that was hard to find and barely used about a decade ago in California. Nonetheless, reportedly, someone at Tesla tried to shoot down battery swapping as a horrible idea in a recent post titled “What are the advantages of charging compared to battery swapping?” that was apparently directed at NIO Vice President of Power Shen Fei. “Although the automaker was not explicitly named, Tesla was mentioned multiple times in both the letter and Shen’s response, which he shared on his Weibo account on Saturday.”

I don’t know what’s going on here, but it sounds like some kind of battle for customers in China. I just find it humorous that someone would attack a company’s battery swapping approach as pointless when the company has performed 66 million battery swaps. Also, I have found it interesting that NIO has basically stood alone in the auto world in developing its vast battery swapping network, and have always wondered how that would evolve.

“Battery swapping is always an intermediate process. You always have to go somewhere to do something specifically for another purpose—just like going to a gas station to refuel,” the original post noted, before adding that charging “can be a destination or a stop along the way.” That’s all fair and good, and no one is saying charging doesn’t have a place and have some advantages, but perhaps battery swapping also has a place for a lot of people and a lot of scenarios?

“After you park, you don’t need any extra steps. You just plug in the charger, and by the time you’re ready to leave, the battery is charged,” the statement added. Yep, we get all that, and have been making this point for a decade and a half (or longer for some of you readers). But sometimes people could also benefit from a quick 3-minute battery swap, and there are many people who don’t have convenient home or workplace charging.

Here’s more (translated) from the original letter criticizing NIO’s battery swap system:

“Tesla had highly advanced battery swapping technology, but after testing it, we abandoned it for three reasons:

“1. Technological iteration: Battery technology is constantly evolving. Tesla integrates the battery into the vehicle chassis, reducing weight and improving efficiency. However, the structural constraints of battery swapping prevent flexibility in adapting new battery technologies.

“2. Safety concerns: Battery swapping requires frequent disassembly and installation of high-voltage components and fasteners. Doesn’t this pose safety risks? While we don’t know for certain, it is worth considering. Additionally, Tesla treats the battery as an integral structural component of the vehicle, which enhances safety.

BABA, NTES, or NIO: Which Chinese Stock Can Deliver the Highest Upside?
https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/baba-ntes-or-nio-which-chinese-stock-can-deliver-the-highest-upside $BABA $NTES $NIO

Huawei / NIO… The race to the bottom is over. The race to the top is just beginning…

Race to the bottom" in the context of Chinese EVs refers to a highly competitive market where companies prioritize producing cheap electric vehicles by cutting costs, often through heavy government subsidies, rather than focusing on innovation and quality, essentially driving prices down to the lowest possible level, which can be detrimental to long-term sustainability and profit margins for manufacturers; this is in contrast to a "race to the top" where companies would focus on developing the most advanced and high-quality EVs, even if it means slightly higher prices.

Race to the top…Huawei/NIO

Nio shows off ET9's safety in extreme scenarios as Chinese EV makers race for better tech…

Nio (NYSE: NIO) has showed off the ET9's safety performance in extreme scenarios in a new video, after a Huawei executive praised the model at the Maextro S800's tech event yesterday.
Yu responded to William Li on Weibo today and invited him to the Maextro S800 launch event in May.
Maextro is a new automotive brand jointly created by Huawei and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group (JAC), and the Maextro S800 will be officially launched in May, with an estimated price tag of RMB 1 million to RMB 1.5 million.

https://cnevpost.com/2025/02/21/nio-shows-off-et9-safety-in-extreme-scenarios/

I am waiting until earnings. Could be one hell of a buying opportunity.

I'm not sure how Q4 will go. Sales were brisk YoY and revs are starting to show for swap. I guess it's all in the margins. Not sure if I should add at low 4's or wait until earnings come out.

I'm not quite 100% on my NIO position yet.

I expect the closer we get to NIO’s March 5th earnings call shots will want the PPS as low as possible. An expected call of increased losses will send the PPS into the $3.70- $3.50 range. They will crush the PPS. Only until proof of ramped up EV sales and/or a decrease in company financial losses will the tide turn against short sellers.
If NIO deliveries fall short in March on top of a bad earnings call NIO will see the $2.00 range. Value or no value short sellers are in control of the PPS until NIO sells a record number of cars or nears profitability. JMHO

NIO’s involvement in reducing EV tariffs.

A new working group to promote China-EU cooperation in the automotive industry has been formed, and a Nio (NYSE: NIO) Europe executive will play a key role in it.

Nio Europe vice president Zhang Hui was appointed by the CCCEU as the first chairman of the automotive working group

https://cnevpost.com/2025/02/20/nio-exec-named-1st-chair-ccceu-auto-group/

Really interesting development in NIO’s favor for the battery swap model.

China Leads the Way with New EV Inspection Standards: A Step Toward Global Road Safety

This initiative, set to take effect on March 1st, 2025, is drawing significant attention from car manufacturers, drivers, inspection stations, and regulatory authorities.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cosbertech_chinas-first-ev-inspection-standard-what-activity-7239181631691853826-bpwo

Electric Vehicle Inspection Solutions
In compliance with the latest Chinese GB-NEV Safety Technical Requirements, the EV Inspection Solution is designed to test the safety of electric vehicles. In addition to the chassis scan camera and visual check, the solution teslane incorporates a computerised Charging Terminal Tester and a 4WD Dynamometer specifically designed for EVs.
https://www.cosber.net/Product/info_itemid_66.html

$300k is my estimate also.

The buildout of Firefly Stations is supposed to be less expensive than the Gen 4 stations. Batteries are also less expensive.

Chinese power companies are working in partnership with NIO to install battery swap stations as a means of addressing the electrical grid’s inability to meet future peak power demand. NIO isn’t footing the entire bill in some utility districts. The utility districts see Battery Swap Stations as a means of selling more electricity without having to upgrade infrastructure. It is a win win situation that can be duplicated anywhere in the world. Elon Musk’s solution to the impending electrical grid’s inability to meet peak power demand is battery storage units strategically placed within the electrical grid.

Either way batteries will need to be installed to meet grid demand. NIO is ahead of the curve by using EV batteries and battery swap stations for mobility, power supply and grid management within the same system.

Nice work Frank. Nice to see the cost coming down. I guess it's fair to say that the total cost, after filling with batteries, would be just over 300k.

There was an illustration of the modular expansion unit with the patent application.
What I foresee is a trucking transport system transporting and swapping batteries from station to station according to demand. Most likely there will be strategically located battery service centers where batteries are stored, repaired, refurbished, charged… etc. Batteries will be recharged during low demand hours at a cheap rate then transported to be resold at the high demand rate at busy swap stations.

The above scenario is years away from becoming a reality. The fourth generation battery swap station unit took 6-7 years to get patent approval… why?
The modular extension patent was applied for in December 2024.

Battery Swap Station buildout cost.

I put this together on my phone. I will try and add the links when on my PC.

Generation 1 Battery Swap Station costs $410,000 - $480,00

The cost of building each second-generation power swap station for Nio is a minimum of 1.5 million yuan ($207,581), ,

The cost of building a third-generation battery swap station can range from around 1.5 to 3 million yuan (approximately $210,000 to $420,000)

Fourt Generation Battery Swap Station.
Oct 31, 2024 06:45
Nio Granted Patent for Cheaper Battery Swap Station After Seven-Year Wait

According to recent information, the cost to build a Nio fourth-generation battery swap station is estimated to be between $107,000 and $120,000 for installation, with variations depending on additional features like photovoltaic systems

Nio's fourth-generation battery swap stations are more open and support servicing of multi-brand vehicles with different sized battery packs

The cost of retrofitting each third-generation station with fourth generation is roughly RMB 200,000 (27,580) to RMB 300,000, Li said, adding that by the end of the year, there will be more than 1,000 battery swap stations available for Onvo.

Nio Files Patent for Expandable Battery Swap Stations

The patent, filed on December 27, 2024 describes a modular extension unit that can be attached to existing battery swap stations, increasing the number of batteries available. Currently, fourth generation stations can store upt to 23 batteries.
The patent also aims to address fluctuating demand in battery swap services, according to details released in a public patent application.

With the big block dark pool buys of 34 million and 40 million shares in the last few weeks coupled the 40 million share UBS buy in December something big is coming.
Or
This is the biggest slight of hands bull trap short setup in history.

BIG Money BUYS $177.5M TODAY – NIO Shorts RETURN 1M 🔥 BIG THINGS Coming for NIO
446 views · 1 hour ago#nio #niovehicle
...more

Financial Journey

Financial Journey claims the 40 million sell right after the bell today was actually a buy. 🤷‍♂️

I came across prices of a battery swap unit costing $500,000 to a low of 1/3 of the $500k price… and every thing in between.
That really is a good question. I will dig a little deeper and let you know.

Thanks for the insight Frank.👍 Since you have a good grip on pricing in China, do you know how much it costs NIO to deploy one Gen four swap station? I've been trying to find that information but I couldn't. I'm trying to get an idea when profitability will actually be possible.

The BYD Seagull is a death trap.

The BYD Seagull will need to meet stricter European crash test regulations before it can be sold in the EU. These changes will increase the cost of production

The BYD Seagull has 74–75 horsepower (hp).
The BYD Seagull is a 5-door, 4-seat hatchback. It has a single electric motor with 75 hp (55 kW) and 135 Nm of torque. Both battery packs can be recharged from 30% to 80% SOC in 30 minutes using a fast charger.
0–50 km/h (31 mph) acceleration time: 4.9 seconds
Price range
Active: Starts at $9,700
Free: Starts at $10,500
Flying: Starts at $12,000

The Xpeng Mona M03 electric sedan comes in three variants, with prices starting at $16,390 and going up to $21,870. The variants are based on the car's CLTC range in kilometers.
Variants and prices
515: The entry-level variant with a starting price of $16,390
620: The mid-tier variant with a starting price of $18,220
580 Max: The top-of-the-line variant with a starting price of $21,870

It is happening. News came out yesterday. Naked shorting hit Tesla and DJT. It is personal.
Musk said publicly the “short selling is vital to the market” narrative is a Bullshit lie. He also said the SEC is compromised by being offered lucrative jobs in the hedge fund sector if they don’t go after the fraud.

Firefly Competition in China
If you check out the various models and compare apples to apples the Firefly is not over priced. Granted, the Firefly offers only one model at this time unlike its competitors offering bare bones cheaper packages. If you are referring to bottom end models I agree NIO is overpriced to compete with the base price models selling in the $12,000 dollar range. But as far as head to head battery range, safety, horse power, top speed, 0-100kph, advanced tech, size,… NIO’s list price for the Firefly is NOT overpriced as compared to their competitor’s top end models. Not even to mention the battery subscription option bringing the initial purchase price of the Firefly well below the competition’s top end models.

The competition in China.
BMW Mini: The Firefly is priced similarly to the discounted electric Mini Cooper in China.
Mercedes-Benz Smart: The Firefly is positioned as a competitor to the Smart.
BYD Seal: The Firefly competes with domestic brands like the BYD Seal.
Xpeng Mona: The Firefly competes with domestic brands like the Xpeng Mona.

Is this a wish or is it happening? Have a link?

GWM signs charging partnership with Nio
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gwm-signs-charging-partnership-nio-090920298.html $NIO

Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency launches SEC investigation

DOGE SEC IS ASKING FOR INFORMATION ON STOCK MARKET CORRUPTION BETWEEN THE SEC AND ILLEGAL NAKED SHORT SELLING, COMMITTED BY HEDGE FUNDS

I'm bullish on NIO and hold a fair position here.

So....the CEO is starting to look for ways to save money and streamline operations but can't see past his own ego. The NIO Houses are a gigantic waste of commercial floor space at the shareholder's expense. Firefly is too expensive and won't sell well...especially without swap in place yet. This crap of so many different companies is also a waste.

NIO needs to hire DOGE.

NIO’s next earnings date is 03/05/2025 Q4 2024
I don’t see any type of catalyst to help NIO survive a quarter over quarter increased loss. The shorts will land on NIO like flies on a fresh cow pie.
If they bring it down into the $3.50 ish range I will be buying more.

Either ONVO has an image problem or the L60 is just inferior when compared to the competition.

Agreed.....WFT happened to ONVO sales?

880 ONVO sales for 1 week with generous incentives isn’t a good sign.

Shorts will have their way with NIO until sales become substantial. The shorts know how to spin simple metrics to manipulate public sentiment.

Nio stock price may surge 75% in 2025: find out why
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/nio-stock-price-may-surge-75-in-2025-find-out-why/ar-AA1zc9wX?ocid=BingNewsSerp $NIO

The NIO Firefly is shaping up to be best in its class for price, battery mileage, horsepower, top speed, safety (EU 5 star), advanced driving technology, and a choice of battery swap, battery upgrade and conventional charging.

No doubt that major accumulation is going on here. When all the HF's and institutions get their desired positions, then, and only then, will good news/company performance affect SP.

UBS Group AG is a Swiss-based multinational bank and financial services company that offers a variety of services to clients.

UBS investment bankers and private bankers are known for their strict bank–client confidentiality

On February 14, 2025 - UBS Group AG filed a 13F-HR form disclosing ownership of 44,160,805 shares of NIO Inc. - Depositary Receipt (Common Stock) (US:NIO) valued at $192,541,110 USD as of December 31, 2024. The entity filed a previous 13F-HR on November 14, 2024 disclosing 4,107,936 shares of NIO Inc. - Depositary Receipt (Common Stock). This represents a change in shares of 975.01% during the quarter. The current value of the position is $196,073,974 USD
@amulpatel8207
5 hours ago

Chery's sub-brand Exeed has partnered with Nio to build battery swap-enabled models that will go on sale in the third quarter of 2025… an SUV and a sedan.

The cycle time to build a new battery swap-enabled model is about 18 months, and by 2027 and 2028 there would be a relatively large number of new models built using Nio's battery swap technology, Li said at the time.
Models from the battery swap alliance ( Changan, Geely, Chery and JAC) is expected to help Nio's energy arm, Nio Power, grow independently.

Nio announced on May 31, 2024 that Nio Power had received a RMB 1.5 billion ($205 million) investment. Nio still holds around 90 percent of Nio Power after it secured its first external financing.

The battery swap fee is around $5.00 per swap not $1.00
The charge station fee for conventional charging averages around $5.00. As you can see revenue can ramp up considerably in a short period of time.
$50 Million per year at $1.00 is really $250 million per year with the $5.00 fee.

The real coin starts when other brands start using Nio swap stations. I believe that one of the partners is launching a compatible vehicle sometime this year.

Let’s crunch some numbers…
Hypothetical
NIO did over 1 million battery swaps during the Chinese holiday
In the same time period EV drivers used NIO power chargers over 1 million times.
If NIO received just $1 per charge… only one dollar. In a period of two weeks NIO brought in over $2 million. At this rate, a period of one year is over $50 million.
NIO is creating the infrastructure to ramp up charging numbers at an exponential rate. NIO Power is a major key to profitability.

Shorts a short sighted goons lacking the foresight to foresee an inevitable squeeze much less a company’s intrinsic value.

Shorts are Walking it down to close the gap.

Short squeeze or shorts leave... either way... money coming.

Let’s be prescient…

Soon a NiO vehicle owner will have the option to send their autonomous driving vehicle to a nearby battery swap station. Imagine sending your vehicle to a battery swap station to get charged while you are at work, shopping, sleeping… time spent powering up your vehicle will be zero minutes. NIO is years ahead of the curve.
While battery swap station detractors are playing checkers NIO is playing 4D Chess.

Autonomous driving will soon be a reality. NIO is presently doing a pilot Robo Taxi trial in Oslo.

NIO Power…
Great Wall Motor is the 17th brand to have a charging service partnership with Nio. Great Wall Motor's Haval, Wey, Ora, and Tank brands can find and use Nio Power's charging piles nationwide through their mobile apps and enjoy an upgraded charging experience.
Great Wall Motor sold 321,795 new energy vehicles (NEVs), including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2024.

https://cnevpost.com/2025/02/14/great-wall-motor-plugs-into-nio-charging/

Let’s be prescient…

The power company solutions to curb quick charging power grid overload will be in pricing.

Higher prices for quick charging will curb the use of quick charging options making quick charging a choice for those able can pay the extra premium. The less affluent will have to choose different options like battery swapping, slow charging or if available home charging. In this inevitable scenario battery swapping is the solution for those lacking home charging access.

A sudden influx of electric cars could put immense pressure on the existing power grid, potentially leading to blackouts.

Power demand isn’t energy demand. The quicker the battery charge the more power is demanded from the power grid.‘Energy supply means nothing if the infrastructure lacks the capability to deliver the power demand required by quick charging by a large number of EV vehicles. We will reach this brick wall sooner than expected as EVs become more popular and quick charging becomes the norm.
While the short sighted investors and battery swap detractors play checkers NIO is playing chess by installing battery swap stations capable of power storage, slow battery charge, and grid management. NIO has the solution to prevent the impending grid power blackouts caused by quick charging EVs.

$144M Dark Pool BUY Mystery
Lucid had similar buying action.