Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO) Quote

Yea. maybe $8.70. It will likely close around 9.70. And then a healthy pullback very soon. Not a bad thing. Needs some consolidation before the next move up.

A pullback near $8.50, would probably be a healthy thing right about now?

Daily chart.

Standard language with stock incentives that they immediately beat if company sold. Nothing unusual there. Go Nick go, new business with Halo stepping into fourth gear for a cash cow!!

Well it does show that Nick and the Board will certainly be motivated to sell this company at one point!

I think they're making sure they stay and stay active growing the company. Without some encouragement that life will be okay after a takeover maybe they wouldn't feel inclined to give it their all.

No not at all. I’m just suggesting that the BOD has put the C level people in a very nice position should the company be bought out.
My question would be why?

Are you suggesting the company has been sold or the executives have been let go?

We could see $40. That would mean with what Nick already has vested and outstanding non vested shares that would become vested plus he gets a year of salary and bonuses and I figure well over 1 million shares. At $40 he would walk away with over $50 million++
The others would do well also

It that a golden parachute?

Thanks for finding that. I guess we won’t be seeing $40.

Change of control.
Here's why we saw the huge awards of Performance Stock Units in the past week IMO

https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20356/html#a_010 Page 40

Overview of Executive Severance Plan, Employment Agreements and Potential Payments Upon Termination or Change in Control
Under the Plan, in the event of a termination of the Executive Participant’s employment by us without cause or a resignation by the Executive Participant for good reason, in each case within three (3) months prior to a change in control or within twelve (12) months following a change in control, the severance benefits for the Executive Participant shall consist of the following:

-immediate vesting in full of all of the Executive Participant’s outstanding equity awards; provided, however, if vesting is otherwise based on satisfaction of performance objectives, such objectives shall be deemed satisfied at 100% of target for each performance period.

Wasn't PPHM suppose to go to $180 per share before the 2 reverse splits?
Just sayin lol

There is no timeline for the wager. Buyout over $40 PPS I win, under $40, you win. No buyout, wager is a push.

I can actually remember like feeling like crying the day it dropped under $20 thinking no way $35 down to $20 and then all the way down to four and back up to $10 now!!
SUCH IS LIFE!!

I would like to make a bet and hope I lose it? lol Timeline please.

who wants to make a wager that there will not be a buy out at less than $40 PPS?

FFTT
JBAIN

Maybe a bidding war over $15?

Don't forget IMHO. Could definitely happen. But they could also just as easily move the ball forward. Nobody knows. Time will tell.

11 will trigger the buyout at 15. Unfortunately.

The stellar compliance record is steve King's legacy that carried over to Lias and Nick after his departure. Nick and Lias can get the credit for keeping the team responsible for maintaining such stellar compliance in place but that is something that is very easy to do. Where Nick failed is in filling,or starting to, the new capacity. Plus Steve King took Bavi into phase III. Had it not been for the phase II sabotage Bavi would have probably been approved. Nick has failed so far in starting to fill the new capacity after more than ample time. I do hope you are right but I hope we get taken over at a good price after all of this waiting. Maybe the price jump bodes well for the near future, i hope.

Being cryptic much!?!?!

Oh I think I know why the jump occurred…but you probably won’t like the reason…imao..,r

It's a Powell short squeezer

Shorts are covering imho!

HI OVERSOLD, UNDER APPRECIATED; FUTURE PROSPECTS LOOKING UP

Price action looks like someone is trying to shake loose shares from down trodden CDMO longs

What’s up with the volume and jump in SP?

As I opined months ago, the $8.5-$9.5 PPS level is going to be tough to crack. Not sure this will be the time, but the way the MM is moving the PPS it very well could be.

FFTT
JBAIN

Well that was a disappointing close after showing some real gains earlier....the stock price fell off a cliff....what was that all about?

Here we go!

Nice to see that Mark Ziebell is on the filings for "Performance" stock....I mean he did such a bang up job overseeing the original debenture financing!

As for $34....well sadly, I think that ship has sailed!

But all is not lost as I believe that now with the financing offerings again opening up for small Biotechs, we will be at the receiving end of their drug candidate orders and these can be very profitable. I am thinking and hoping that we will begin to see them starting to make at least somewhat of a dent into their excess capacity over the next several quarters and beyond.

I do see $15 at least within 18 months(barring no other debacle or major setback) and perhaps into the low $20's in a couple of years....maybe? So I am hoping and believing that the worst is now behind us and our stock price should begin to reflect the coming growth, revenue and profit coming to Avid.

And I still believe Avid could be taken out any time within the next couple of years, as the board and management would certainly benefit greatly.....and yes we common shareholders would also, but certainly not as much as Nick and company!

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20240712/AL2ZB62CZ22HQZZF222S2ZYZQTVUZZP2ZM62/

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20240711/AL2FB62CZ22HQZZF222S2ZYZPT9UZZM2Z262/

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20240711/AJ2P362CZ22HCZZF22242ZYZU7WVZZM2Z262/

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20240711/AV22462CZ22H9ZZF22262ZYZ9TAM8ZM2Z262/

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20240711/AO22P62CZ22HSZZF222I2ZYZ2URBIZM2Z262/

NOW IMAGINE ALL THESE SHARES DISTRIBUTED IF THE SHARE PRICE WAS $34+ AGAIN!!!! Sheesh Only weathermen and CDMO execs can be correct 25% of the time ...

Large AH trade
07/12/2024 17:23:24 EDT W 8.32 184268 NDD
07/12/2024 16:06:17 EDT I 8.51 1 ARCA
07/12/2024 16:02:52 EDT P 8.32 321 NDD
07/12/2024 16:02:50 EDT P 8.32 105 NDD
07/12/2024 16:02:47 EDT P 8.32 771 NDD
07/12/2024 16:02:46 EDT P 8.32 136 NDD
07/12/2024 16:02:44 EDT P 8.32 503 NDD
07/12/2024 16:02:40 EDT P 8.32 3238 NDD
07/12/2024 16:02:37 EDT P 8.32 1268 NDD
07/12/2024 16:02:19 EDT I 8.32 69 NDD
07/12/2024 16:02:01 EDT P 8.32 1304 NDD
07/12/2024 16:01:40 EDT P 8.32 212 NDD
07/12/2024 16:01:37 EDT P 8.32 672 NDD
07/12/2024 16:01:15 EDT P 8.32 2438 NDD
07/12/2024 16:00:11 EDT I 8.32 83 NDD
07/12/2024 16:00:11 EDT P 8.32 1767 NDD
07/12/2024 16:00:11 EDT P 8.32 473 NDD
07/12/2024 16:00:11 EDT P 8.32 335 NDD
07/12/2024 16:00:11 EDT P 8.32 226 NDD
07/12/2024 16:00:11 EDT P 8.32 2235

Where do we fine these milestones?

The vesting of the PSUs granted to the reporting person on July 9, 2024 is subject to the Issuer achieving certain fiscal year revenue and adjusted pre-tax net income milestones, each weighted 50%, over three (3) fiscal year performance periods beginning with the Issuer's fiscal year ending April 30, 2025 and continuing through the fiscal year ending April 30, 2027 (each a "Performance Period"). Subject to the Issuer attaining the applicable fiscal year milestones, 1/3rd of the PSUs will vest on the last day of each fiscal year during the Performance Period, subject to the reporting person's continuous service to the Issuer on such vesting dates. The number of PSUs listed is based on a maximum 200% achievement of each milestone during each Performance Period (the "Maximum Performance Target"). If a milestone is achieved at a rate below the Maximum Performance Target, or is not achieved, the corresponding portion of the PSUs that do not vest are forfeited.

I give you an A for consistency. -)

Don't eat dinner b4 viewing what Hart got for RSU shrs this yr... https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/704562/000168316824004762/xslF345X05/ownership.xml ...got little over 19k last yr...r

Well I kind of have to agree....Nick and his crew showed their competency in how they missed doing a minor filing on the original convertible financing which led to a complete debacle and forced them to repay the funds immediately and negotiate another package with interest rates jumping from 1.25% due in 2026 with a convertible price in the mid $20's, to 7% with a convertible price reduced to $9.89. So the minimum extra financing cost is approx $10 mil per year for 2024, 2025 and part of 2026....so lets say $25 to $30 million anyway. Also, when and if these shares are converted, this will result in much more dilution than the previous convertible and will certainly result in a much lower share price at that time.

Now all of the above does not mean that Avid will never succeed, nor that we(Avid) will ever trade back into the teens but this will certainly be a drag on the share price going forward as compared to the original convertible debt deal.

Now I still believe that Avid will yet succeed and think we have a shot at $15+in about 18 months or so, which is very good......but nothing close to where we would have traded. The bottom line remains that for Avid to make money and hence for the share price to go higher, they MUST start making progress on filling their capacity....even under the original convertible....sure their financing costs would have been lower, but making solid profits still would only come if they manage/d to fill capacity....and like I have said before....I think actual capacity is higher than $400 mil, or rather they have ways of increasing this.

So yes we may still have very good times ahead.....now as for the question of who was the better CEO?....only time will tell....remember that it was SK who saved the manufacturing side of Peregrine which allowed the share price to run when new management was brought in and allowed shareholders to cash in. I also do not believe that SK would have missed reading the original convertible financing terms that required minor filings and would have seen this package through to completion.

Now would SK have embarked on the huge expansion that Nick pushed through????? Who knows? And if Nick manages to fill up capacity in a timely manner, we will all sing his praises no doubt. With rates starting to come off or predicting to start to come off, this will open the doors to new financing for a lot of smaller Biotechs leading to more drug candidates and more contracts for Avid....high profit contracts!

So we will see as we are now in the hands of Nick G.....if he fails to meaningfully start filling up capacity, he will be gone and the company will probably be sold.

Ha Ha ...good one! Not alot of facts support your positive view of Nic and his clown show

Short interest was down a bit.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/cdmo/short-interest

Settlement Date Short Interest
06/28/2024 12,358,079
06/14/2024 15,076,940
05/31/2024 11,510,830
05/15/2024 11,862,647

This stock, like many small cap stocks, reacts positively to any indication that interest rates will be going down. The positive inflation news today bodes well for CDMO and all small cap stocks. All other things equal, we should see a steady rise in share price as interest rates retreat from current highs.

And with the added benefit of a huge short position... especially those 5 million or so that piled on in May/June!

MM is keeping it orderly, so far 😁

$8.30 HIGH SO FAR! ….. $8.27 at 11:50 am …. Great rebounding
From the low of $4.00 …. I doubled down at $4.20 back then, but still underwater after 28 years in this equity …. Didn’t even want to sell at $34+, but did sell some then, and redeployed some back at $4.20 …. IT IS A MM GAME … WE ARE ALWAYS THE LAST TO KNOW …. BLESSINGS TO ALL

Finally some good news the market is reacting positively to. Thanks.

KeyBanc Capital Markets maintained its Overweight rating on Avid Bioservices (NASDAQ:CDMO) stock, with a steady price target of $14.00.

https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/keybanc-still-confident-in-avid-bioservices-stock-despite-lower-orders-93CH-3507234

Hesitancy on new sales might be attributed to the Catalent model?...Would a startup commit a new drug/molecule/gene process to a company that might get bought out for sole manufacturing capacity?...I could imagine the pharma musical chairs scenario playing out at CTLT to make room for Ozempic....That horror show is probably on the minds of the startups looking for a home to get their drug going...imao...r

"Steve King a much better CEO than Nick."

I respectively and adamantly disagree. No comment on Steve King and the former team. Nick and his team can turn this around. I am willing to give him the benefit of some time. We don't know what's going on behind closed doors. There were 6 or 7 products up for FDA approval. The market is turning around. Demand is returning quickly and optimally. They have a strong, stellar compliance record. There were no excuses given last quarterly meeting. Yes accountability is important. I only wish they would promote their new business wins more aggressively. His team was doing a phenominal job before some hiccups. It happens. I believe they have the mental tenacity to turn this around. I believe wholeheartedly that our best days are ahead! I believe Nick and his team has what it takes to bring this company to potential. AIMO

At this point the only thing I am hoping and waiting for is the sale of the company. Green and the board cannot get it done because they haven't gotten it done after all of this time. Building a new plant and expansion is a very bad move if you cannot fill the new capacity in an industry and at a time when there is
good demand. Maybe HALO will move all of their manufacturing to Avid but that obviously will not be because of anything Green at al will have done. They seem to be too comfortable drawing their fat salaries without even thinking that their stocks could be worth a lot more if they started to fill the capacity.

But that takes work, accountability of your sales team accountability to your shareholders, things that they do not appear to have. They relish in things like esg compliance and maybe DEI (don't know if they are pursuing dei but it wouldn't surprise me). Steve King was a much better CEO than Green has proven to be so far. Hoping that maybe another Steve forces a sale of the company. Steve Cohen.

How does Nic justify his role as CEO, makes $6mil a year for what? Destroying hundreds of millions in shareholder value? Or how about missing a debt covenant and costing us millions? Or the amazing sales team that can't close deals? Are Institutional holders indifferent or passive index holders. The board?? Ha ha blissfully unaware or aware and complicit ... Time to force a sale this is beyond criminal

HALO is up $20 this year, from $33 to $53. Wish we would see some of that in our share price.

Yes absolutely if they can attract such people. More apt to attract experienced, effective sales people with strong standing in the industry. Either way they need to know what is hindering sales and eliminate it. Take all excuses away. The market downturn is no longer a valid excuse. The market is robust and capacity is badly needed.

Set their sales people up for success. Promote success. Take away all excuses. No excuses. Then it's a matter of managing the sales process -- ensuring everyone is being aggressive and closing sales. Coaching where needed and holding people accountable. You aren't doing anyone a service by keeping low performers on the payroll. Not even the person that needs to be eliminated. They learn nothing if they are allowed to under perform. It certainly would help to have experienced sales people with established track records and relationships.