More US Consumers Drop Cable, DVDs As Content Moves Online
February 09 2009 - 8:30AM
Dow Jones News
For an idea of what's vexing U.S. entertainment industry
executives these days, take a look at how Todd Mundt in Louisville,
Ky., watches television and movies.
Eager to save money, the public radio station employee canceled
his cable-television subscription, opting instead to get his
favorite shows from a host of free streaming video sites, including
Hulu.com, a joint venture of General Electric Co.'s (GE) NBC
Universal and News Corp. (NWS). Rather than rent DVDs from
Blockbuster Inc. (BBI), Mundt streams movies from Netflix Inc.
(NFLX), a cheap and convenient substitute.
Mundt estimates he's saving at least $50 a month by getting his
entertainment over the broadband connection he would pay for anyway
just to have access to the Web. His prowess at finding
entertainment online has also made him the envy of friends and
colleagues.
"A lot of my friends take a look at my setup and say, 'Cool, how
do I do that?'" Mundt said.
Mundt is one of a growing tide of consumers that over the last
year or so have begun cutting their cable television subscriptions
and shunning DVDs as more content becomes available online and
faster broadband connections reach more parts of the country. Now,
with the economy in a tailspin and consumers pinching budgets, the
trend is picking up speed even though high-definition offerings and
live events are still hard to come by.
No one knows how many people have cut their cable subscriptions,
though some estimates have put the figure at about 1.1 million, or
1% of U.S. households with televisions. But already the trend is
being blamed for shrinking performances at entertainment giants
like Walt Disney Co. (DIS) and Time Warner Cable (TWC). Both
companies blamed slipping revenue in part on the trend at earnings
conferences last week.
DVD sales have also been hit. The Los Angeles-based Digital
Entertainment Group estimates DVD sales in 2008 fell 8% to $21.6
billion from a year earlier, while DVD rentals were flat.
Cable and satellite television operators, who rely on
subscription-based TV for about half of their revenue, are likely
to be the biggest losers from the trend.
"People, particularly young people, are saying all I need is
broadband," Time Warner Cable Chief Executive Glenn Britt said
recently. "The danger here is...people will choose not to buy
subscription video."
Internet delivered movies also threatens to undermine the $14
billion in revenue that movie studios generate by distributing
their titles on DVDs. That's because many consumers are asking
themselves why they should buy a disc when the same movies are
available over the Internet, often at a big discount or for
free.
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) is among the major U.S. studios to take
notice. Disney said its studio revenues were down 26% last quarter
and earnings before items were off 62% because of a soft DVD market
driven in part by people accessing entertainment online. Already
the shift has prompted Disney to shrink its home-video
business.
"Consumer choice grows, we all know this to be true," Disney
Chief Executive Robert Iger said recently. "This clearly has had an
impact on broadcast television and may have a long-term potential
impact on the DVD business."
Not all companies will suffer and already potential winners are
starting to emerge.
Netflix, the online DVD rental and movie streaming company is a
favorite among converts to online entertainment. The Los Gatos,
Calif.-based company offers unlimited movie streaming from its
12,000 title catalogue for just $9 a month.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), both of which
operate successful online streaming services, are also already
benefitting, as is software giant Microsoft Corp. (MSFT). In the
past three months, owners of Microsoft Xbox 360 game consoles have
bought packages that let them stream Netflix titles over their game
machines and have watched 1.5 billion minutes of programming over
that period.
Makers of hardware that connect Internet connections to
television sets are also expected to see a booming business. While
it doesn't disclose numbers, sales of Netflix's Roku device are
thought to be soaring. Meanwhile, sales of Apple's Apple TV unit
sales tripled in its last complete fiscal quarter.
Free video Web sites are also winners, though their payoff is
muted because most rely on advertising revenues, which have fallen
with the recession. Hulu is among the upstarts offering free,
higher quality videos like NBC's "Office".
Meanwhile, Google Inc.'s (GOOG) YouTube, and Yahoo Inc.'s (YHOO)
video Web site have seen increased use as well, according to a
January report by comScore.
-By Ben Charny, Dow Jones Newswires; 415-765-8230;
ben.charny@dowjones.com