2013 was a phenomenal year for stock investing, as the S&P 500
added more than 30% in the time frame. This came after a flat 2012,
and the great performance was had despite worries over the taper
and still muted economic growth.
It was also a great year for the ETF world as well, as close to 100
(net) new products hit the market, and assets under management
crossed the $1.5 trillion mark. Now there are more than 1,500
choices out there, giving investors a near paralyzing amount of
ways to slice and dice exposure to hundreds of market niches.
A few of these stand out though, as potential top performers for
the New Year. Below, we highlight seven of our best ETF ideas for
2014, any of which we are looking for outperformance from over the
next 12 months:
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
As the Fed continues to taper, longer term rates look likely to
creep higher. However, short term rates are holding pretty firm,
creating a bigger interest rate spread between long and short term
rates (see all the Top Ranked ETFs here).
This is great news for companies like regional banks which focus on
‘basic’ banking activities like lending. After all, these banks
borrow money from depositors at low short term rates, and give
loans at the higher rates, making it that much easier for these
firms to make money.
While there are a number of ways to play this, KRE seems like a
fantastic option. The fund holds 80 stocks in its basket, and it
currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (strong buy), suggesting that
2014 could bring good things to this fund much like what we have
seen in the past few months.
db X-trackers MSCI Germany Hedged Equity Fund
(DBGR)
Europe is coming back in a big way, and this trend could continue
in 2014 as well. However, if the dollar strengthens,
euro-denominated investors could lag, meaning that a hedged play
could be the way to go.
Investors can do this by targeting Europe’s strongest economy,
Germany, with DBGR. This fund offers up great exposure to the
central European economy, but does so without the euro, making it
likely to outperform more traditional German ETFs if the euro
falters in 2014.
DBGR also has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Health Care Portfolio
(PSCH)
2013 was a great year for health care, and particularly so in the
biotech space. However, for 2014, pipelines for many of the majors
might be a little light, and they could be looking to small caps in
the space to help boost their long term outlooks (read Play Surging
Health Care with These Small Cap ETFs).
And with the huge cash war chests that many companies have, M&A
activity could pick up this year, as there is only so many buybacks
companies can justify. While looking at specific small caps is an
interesting idea, you can spread the risk around with PSCH in order
to play off this trend a little more safely.
PSCH has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold).
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW)
Concerns are starting to build over a variety of emerging markets
thanks to a number of political issues. Fortunately, for nations
tied to developed markets, the resurgence in both the U.S. and
Europe could pull their heavily-correlated economies higher.
One such economy that fits this bill is Mexico with EWW. The
country could be poised to surge in 2014, and given some economic
liberalization—specifically with regards to the country’s plans for
its state oil company—the Mexico ETF could be an excellent
pick.
EWW currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold).
EG Shares Emerging Markets Consumer Titans ETF
(ECON)
If individual countries aren’t your preference for emerging
markets, a look to the consumer world may also be an interesting
selection. After all, emerging nations are seeing huge gains in
their consuming class, and companies on the ground floor stand to
benefit from this trend (also see Inside the New Emerging Markets
Consumer Growth ETF).
Plus, many companies in ECON are not found in other emerging market
ETFs, suggesting a level of diversification too. And with a heavy
focus on large cap staples, the volatility level shouldn’t be too
bad for most investors.
Global X Guru Index ETF (GURU)
Want to invest like some of the biggest and most powerful
institutional investors? Try out this fund from Global X which
invests in securities based on publically released 13-F filings.
This is clearly a winning strategy, as the fund soared by more than
43% in 2013, and if markets continue to march higher, there is
plenty of reason to believe that this trend can continue, making
GURU an excellent pick.
After all, GURU only focuses on longer-term holdings and funds with
lower turnover, targeting only the highest conviction stock picks
based on a proprietary selection process, suggesting this fund
could be a winner again in 2014.
Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF (MGV)
Small caps easily crushed large caps for the first half of 2013.
The last few months saw a bit of a shift though, with large caps
starting to take the lead once again. I think that this trend will
continue once again, especially given the high PEs of many small
cap securities (save for those likely to be impacted by M&A
activity).
Fortunately, investors can focus on the biggest of the big with
MGV, which only holds about 150 ultra-large cap value stocks. And
with a fee of 12 basis points, this is a pretty cheap choice for
investors seeking a concentrated look on some of the country’s most
famous value companies (read Mega Cap ETFs for Mega Returns).
MGV currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold)
Bottom Line
2013 was a great year for stocks and many are still bullish on the
markets heading into 2014. However, after the huge run we saw last
year, investors may have to be a bit more nimble this time
around.
For investors seeking to do this, any of the seven picks above may
be great ways to accomplish this task. And for all the top ranked
ETFs, make sure to check out our full list here for more ideas on
investing this year.
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Author is long ECON.
DB-XT MS GER HD (DBGR): ETF Research Reports
EMERG-GS DJ EMC (ECON): ETF Research Reports
ISHARS-MEXICO (EWW): ETF Research Reports
GLBL-X GURU IDX (GURU): ETF Research Reports
SPDR-KBW REG BK (KRE): ETF Research Reports
VANGD-MG CAP VL (MGV): ETF Research Reports
PWRSH-SP SC HCP (PSCH): ETF Research Reports
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