The latter half of fiscal 2011 was a difficult time for
developed as well as emerging markets. Socio-economic as well as
political issues caught the limelight worldwide. Concerns over the
euro zone continue to plague investors and the effects are not only
limited to the European and American markets but were also felt in
Asian markets as well (see Euro Small Cap ETFs: The Way to Play
Europe?).
Many Asian stock markets have been showing signs of a recovery
since the start of fiscal 2012. However, with the worsening
situation in Euro zone and consecutively weak unemployment numbers
from the U.S., Asian markets have again begun to witness a bearish
reversal (read ETF Trading Report: China, Global ETFs in
Focus).
In fact, the Chinese economy is growing in at a below average
pace due to slowdown in the manufacturing sector while things
aren’t much better in the rest of the BRIC bloc. India grew just by
a mere 5.3% for the January-March quarter, well below
expectations.
This is a very low figure compared to the impressive show put up
by the Indian economy in the recent past, further signaling the
BRIC weakness (read Indian Rupee ETFs: Is The Slide Over?).
Beyond these two major markets, some are also growing more
concerned about a quasi-emerging market in the region which could
face a slump as well. South Korea is perhaps one of the best
‘emerging’ markets for many investors although it often suffers
from high levels of volatility thanks to its relatively liquid
market and intense political issues.
South Korea: Economy and
Politics
Thanks to a hostile neighbor on its Northern border, South
Korean markets are often dictated by political problems. This can
be somewhat surprising as the country is generally one of the most
stable in the world but is obviously right next door to one of the
most volatile regimes on Earth.
Generally speaking, this saber rattling with the North has a
very negative impact on South Korea’s stocks and confidence by
foreign investors. As a result, foreign fund flows (portfolio flows
as well as direct investments) are also impacted in a big way and
can thus see big swings in a short period of time.
Beyond this, investors should note that the South Korean economy
is Asia’s fourth largest economy and is heavily dependent on
exports. The U.S and European markets form a major part of the
revenues for Korean exporters.
However, with shrinking demand for goods and services from
western economies, revenues for exporters have also started to
shrink. As a result, the Korean economy has not been able to grow
at the pace that it normally does (read Are Korean ETFs in
Trouble?).
Rising inflationary pressure and low policy rates by the Central
bank, Bank of Korea, have also led to the South Korean won
underperforming versus the United States Dollar (USD). In this
regard, it is prudent to note that many emerging as well as
developed market currencies have lost substantially versus the USD
on account of extremely low interest rates scenario in the U.S
economy and global risk aversion.
While this trend can certainly help the exporters in the nation,
it can result in stock price weakness for investors from outside
Korea as well, especially if the strong dollar trend continues
(read Dollar and Yen ETFs to Benefit from the Greek Drama).
South Korea: YTD Stock Market
performance
The Asian markets got off to an impressive start since the start
of 2012 on account of strong international and domestic cues. The
announcement of the Greek bailout package of €130 billion by the
European Union earlier in March and favorable economic data from
the U.S. were some of the developments driving the positive market
sentiments. (Read How to Play the Spain ETF (And the Euro Zone
Slump))
Most emerging, as well as developed nations’ stock markets
rebounded and South Korea’s GDP growth accelerated in the first
quarter of fiscal 2012. During this time the benchmark South Korean
stock market, KOSPI, gained almost 10.27% (absolute returns) from
January till March. Thereafter, since the beginning of April till
date, the index has slumped by almost 11.21%.
Due to this, we see that the broad market slump after March 2012
has pretty much wiped out gains from the first quarter. However,
this also means that presently the markets are trading at an
attractive valuation at current levels, indicating good entry
points. Presently the markets look oversold and there could be
subsequent and sharp market rallies.
However, questions have to be raised about a broader market
recovery as the future of the Euro zone and its constituents remain
in doubt. As investors gear up for developments to be triggered in
the Euro zone, it is expected that South Korean markets will show
signs of resiliency with policy and reform planning in order to
stimulate growth and stability in the economy.
For investors looking to play this trend in basket form, either
of the two South Korean ETFs highlighted below might be excellent
choices, assuming of course that the markets can rebound and risk
tolerance for Asian markets is relatively high:
iShares MSCI South Korea Index (EWY)
EWY tracks the MSCI Korea Index which measures the performance
of the broader South Korean equity markets. The index is a float
adjusted, market capitalization weighted index which mostly
consists of publicly traded large cap stocks. The ETF was launched
back in mid 2000 and has total assets of $2.53 billion.
It is also one of the most liquid and actively traded ETFs in
this space as indicated by its average daily volume of 2,390,678
shares. The ETF also adds a U.S flavor in its portfolio by holding
depository receipts issued by Korean companies that are traded in
the U.S equity markets.
EWY presently holds 106 securities with a 51.11% allocation
towards its top 10 holdings. However, the performance of this ETF
is heavily dependent on Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. as more than
22% of EWY’s total assets are allocated towards it. A substantial
allocation is also given to fellow heavyweights like Hyundai Motors
and Posco which have a combined weighting of more than 10%.
It is prudent to note that a majority of its total assets are
invested in export dominated large cap companies. These have,
however, taken a beating in terms of revenue due to diminishing
export demand on account of the global economic uncertainties (Read
Three Defensive ETFs for a Bear Market).
The ETF is heavily exposed to sectors such as Technology,
Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Financials. EWY has had a
pretty volatile last one year. Like most of the Asian emerging
markets ETFs, EWY has exhibited a dismal performance, slumping
-19.57% in the last one year period. A 52 week low of $44.67 and
high of $68.03 for EWY gives us an idea about its volatility.
First Trust South Korea AlphaDEX (FKO)
Launched in April of 2011, this is the latest addition in the
South Korean ETF space. FKO is designed to track the Defined South
Korea Index which is a subset of the S&P South Korea BMI
Index.
The ETF employs AlphaDEX methodology, selecting stocks which
have the potential to generate a positive alpha relative to
traditional passive indexing approach.
Stocks are ranked based on various fundamental as well as growth
factors. Based on these ranks, the stocks are assigned weights with
higher ranked stocks receiving more weights. Thanks to this unique
methodology, the ETF charges 80 basis points in fees and expenses
which is much higher than its other South Korean counterparts.
The ETF is comprised of 50 stocks from the entire spectrum of
market capitalizations, although it does have a large cap bias.
Also, it does well in allocating 32.30% in its top 10 holdings.
It has been over a year now since the ETF has debuted, however,
investors are still reluctant to show confidence in this product.
Total assets of $1.05 million and an average daily volume of 2,589
shares bear testimony to its unpopularity. Moreover, a high expense
ratio adds to investors’ woes. In terms of sector composition,
Industrials (27.96%), Consumer Discretionary (15.16%) and
Financials (14.56%) form a majority of its portfolio. (see Play A
Consumer Recovery With These Discretionary ETFs)
The ETF has slumped -29.12% in the previous one year period.
This is mainly attributable to the slump in the emerging Asian
markets on account of global woes.
However, the ETF had shown signs of recovery since the start of
2012, returning 9.89% for the first quarter, but since then it has
again showed signs of a downtrend fetching -16.41% from April till
the beginning of June given the worsening situation in the Euro
zone.
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ISHARS-S KOREA (EWY): ETF Research Reports
FT-S KOREA AD (FKO): ETF Research Reports
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