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iShares China Large Cap

iShares China Large Cap (FXI)

29.69
-0.66
(-2.17%)
Closed November 24 4:00PM
29.68
-0.01
(-0.03%)
After Hours: 7:59PM

Professional-Grade Tools, for Individual Investors.

FXI News

Official News Only

FXI Discussion

View Posts
BottomBounce BottomBounce 12 months ago
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been rapidly accumulating gold, which suggests the country is laying the groundwork for significant changes in the dollar-centric international monetary system $FXI
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stocktrademan stocktrademan 4 years ago
China is a buy now as much as possible, as the daily is now at the second double bottom low...buy now or get left out your choice...If you are trading daily then you must look only at the weekly for the trend confirmation and it is currently valid bullish.



The chart is bullish for trading until the price closes below the dashed line and the color also changes red. Until then just great buying opportunities like now.

Reply if you need this setup for interpreting.

Longer term weekly traders may recognize a fractal situation where the same fortune holds for them as the daily traders.
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stocktrademan stocktrademan 4 years ago
SELL -XXX FXI 100 17 SEP 21 47 PUT @2.97 LMT
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stocktrademan stocktrademan 4 years ago
China's large cap ETF, aka a proxy for their stock index, looks like a buy currently on the weekly chart. Buy the low and then check back in a couple of months perhaps. Or investigate using your own research, finding Chinese stocks that fit the overall cohesiveness of their market currently, accepting more risk for reward. However that is not necessary and a misnomer technique really.

The misunderstanding is the assumption that reward and risk are equivalent and in competition. Money changes everything. Big money buying index ETFs is less risky than picking stocks. The index ETFs are diversifying to spread risk. This is similar to insurance. Insurance was borne in China. If you have a million dollars you will likely safely make more buying the Index ETF instead of spreading out to certain stocks, not only because of commissions but also event risk for the few companies, instead of an index that accepts all the stocks risks.



https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=fxi,uu[e,a]whclyiay[uu][pb5!b10!b50!b100!b200!d20,2!h.02,.20!f][vb5!b20][iut!lv8!lk9!LE12,26,9!ll14!la6,13,5!la8,17,9!la12,26,9!uc14!ub14!ub6!lo!lp7,3!lh9,3!LI14,3!lxa!ld8!lq!lg14!lf14][j20444984,y]&r=3555b
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makinezmoney makinezmoney 5 years ago
$FXI: China Drops 10% on MONDAY !!!!!!!!


You heard it here now............ Chinese Markets finally OPEN.


They are gonna get WALLOPED !


YOU KNOW IT !



GO Down $FXI........ DOWN !


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makinezmoney makinezmoney 5 years ago
$FXI: Called it........ actually went lower


Those PUTS are paying now !!!!!!!



GO $FXI
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makinezmoney makinezmoney 5 years ago
$FXI: I guess this 5% pullback isn't surprising.


Maybe going to $40 now with this CoronaVirus epidemic getting bigger.


Now at $42.15
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PennyStock Alert PennyStock Alert 5 years ago

UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25
http://www.proshares.com/funds/fxp.html
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PennyStock Alert PennyStock Alert 5 years ago
China Mobile (CHL) accounts for over 10% of assets in FXI fund.

Today's news
Apple, China Mobile Discuss China IPhone

#msg-24502526
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stocktrademan stocktrademan 6 years ago
FXI buy option

macd bullish divergence
macd histogram crossup
moving average support
central pivot crossup
stochastics oversold with %k crossing up %d
stochastic bullish divergence
bull flag
gap up
all the above confluent at a long term uptrending support trendline
recent geopolitical news developments appear bullish for index

FXI at 40.67, buy 12/21/18 FXI 45 calls for 0.21, 50 days to expiry, 13 delta























normal chart




log chart



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Rawlens Rawlens 6 years ago
Market Morning: Gene Therapy Deregulation, Amazon to the Movies, SEC on Musk’s Tail – Futures Up on China-U.S. Trade Talks, China at New 52-Week Lows. Washington sent an invitation to Beijing for trade talks in late August, and the Chinese have responded in kind. They plan to send their vice minister of commerce to discuss the situation, and U.S. futures are up on the news. Not so much for China, whose Shanghai Composite Index (NYSEARCA:FXI) hit new 52-week lows overnight, but has bounced somewhat since. Could the U.S. be “winning” the trade war? Not that a few days of market activity are particularly indicative. S&P 500 futures (NYSERACA:SPY) are nevertheless up handily at 0.3% after falling over 20 points yesterday. Futures however can deceive, as they were up yesterday, too, only to fall precipitously at market open. Read more: https://marketexclusive.com/market-morning-gene-therapy-deregulation-amazon-to-the-movies-sec-on-musks-tail/2018/08/
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ITMS ITMS 7 years ago
Is The Chart Pattern In The iShares China Large-Cap ETF Signaling Lower Prices Ahead?

One of the most popular way for traders and investors to trade and track the Chinese stock market is to use the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:FXI). This ETF includes Chinese companies such as China Construction Bank Corp, Tencent Holdings LTD, China Mobile LTD, CNOOC LTD and many others. Currently, the daily and weekly patterns in the FXI have shown choppy sideways consolidation. This consolidation pattern that is forming comes after a sharp decline from a January 26, 2018 peak. This indicates that the next major move for the FXI will be lower. The next important support level will be around the $43.00 a level. This area is where the stock broke out in August 2017. Often, prior levels will be solid support when initially retested.




Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks
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stocktrademan stocktrademan 8 years ago
FXI bullish option

buy a 19 MAY 17 37 call for 2.03









normal chart




log chart



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OTCRIDER OTCRIDER 9 years ago
PUTS ?
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Coujoe62 Coujoe62 10 years ago
Lol well 3 years later someone showed up
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Shaka_Zulu Shaka_Zulu 10 years ago
Boom
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Shaka_Zulu Shaka_Zulu 10 years ago
42 break coming soon
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Shaka_Zulu Shaka_Zulu 10 years ago
Yup!
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Shaka_Zulu Shaka_Zulu 10 years ago
Trend is building. Look for a slow steady run past 42 and then some $$$. Big money will be buying the trend.

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stocktrademan stocktrademan 10 years ago
$FXI DD Notes ~ http://www.ddnotesmaker.com/FXI

bullish
quick trade

bullish price objective 63


$FXI recent news/filings

## source: finance.yahoo.com

Thu, 25 Dec 2014 13:01:51 GMT ~ Snapback or Touch and Go in China


read full: http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog-snapback-or-touch-and-go-in-china-130153595.html
*********************************************************

Wed, 24 Dec 2014 19:33:53 GMT ~ Why The Recent Slump In Oil Prices Should Matter To You


read full: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-recent-slump-oil-prices-193353069.html
*********************************************************

Tue, 23 Dec 2014 15:14:00 GMT ~ Why The Bull Market In China Will Continue


read full: http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog-why-the-bull-market-in-china-will-continue-151441077.html
*********************************************************

Mon, 22 Dec 2014 23:41:00 GMT ~ Alibaba Enters Russell Global Indexes; When Will It Enter MSCI?


read full: http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2014/12/22/alibaba-enters-russell-global-indexes-when-will-it-enter-msci/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
*********************************************************

Mon, 22 Dec 2014 14:14:00 GMT ~ International Equities Year in Review and Outlook for 2015


read full: http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog-international-equities-year-in-review-and-outlook-141428499.html
*********************************************************


$FXI charts

basic chart ## source: stockcharts.com



basic chart ## source: stockscores.com



big daily chart ## source: stockcharts.com



big weekly chart ## source: stockcharts.com


$FXI company information

## source: otcmarkets.com

Link: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FXI/company-info
Ticker: $FXI
OTC Market Place: Not Available
CIK code: 0001332174
Company name: iShares Trust
Company website: http://www.ishares.com
Incorporated In: DE, USA

Business Description:


$FXI share structure

## source: otcmarkets.com

Market Value: Not Available
Shares Outstanding: Not Available
Float: Not Available
Authorized Shares: Not Available
Par Value: No Par Value
$FXI extra dd links

Company name: iShares Trust
Company website: http://www.ishares.com

## STOCK DETAILS ##
After Hours Quote (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/after-hours
Option Chain (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/option-chain
Historical Prices (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=FXI+Historical+Prices
Company Profile (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=FXI+Profile
Industry (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=FXI+Industry

## COMPANY NEWS ##
Market Stream (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/stream
Latest news (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FXI/news - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=FXI+Headlines

## STOCK ANALYSIS ##
Analyst Research (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/analyst-research
Guru Analysis (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/guru-analysis
Stock Report (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/stock-report
Competitors (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/competitors
Stock Consultant (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/stock-consultant
Stock Comparison (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/stock-comparison
Investopedia (investopedia.com): http://www.investopedia.com/markets/stocks/FXI/?wa=0
Research Reports (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FXI/research
Basic Tech. Analysis (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=FXI+Basic+Tech.+Analysis
Barchart (barchart.com): http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/FXI
DTCC (dtcc.com): http://search2.dtcc.com/?q=iShares+Trust&x=10&y=8&sp_p=all&sp_f=ISO-8859-1
Spoke company information (spoke.com): http://www.spoke.com/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=iShares+Trust
Corporation WIKI (corporationwiki.com): http://www.corporationwiki.com/search/results?term=iShares+Trust&x=0&y=0
WHOIS (domaintools.com): http://whois.domaintools.com/http://www.ishares.com
Alexa (alexa.com): http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/http://www.ishares.com#
Corporate website internet archive (archive.org): http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.ishares.com

## FUNDAMENTALS ##
Call Transcripts (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/call-transcripts
Annual Report (companyspotlight.com): http://www.companyspotlight.com/library/companies/keyword/FXI
Income Statement (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/financials?query=income-statement
Revenue/EPS (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/revenue-eps
SEC Filings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/sec-filings
Edgar filings (sec.gov): http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001332174&owner=exclude&count=40
Latest filings (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FXI/filings
Latest financials (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FXI/financials
Short Interest (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/short-interest
Dividend History (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/dividend-history
RegSho (regsho.com): http://www.regsho.com/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=FXI&search=search
OTC Short Report (otcshortreport.com): http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=FXI
Short Sales (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FXI/short-sales
Key Statistics (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FXI+Key+Statistics
Insider Roster (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ir?s=FXI+Insider+Roster
Income Statement (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=FXI
Balance Sheet (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=FXI
Cash Flow (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=FXI+Cash+Flow&annual

## HOLDINGS ##
Major holdings (cnbc.com): http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/FXI/tab/8.1
Insider transactions (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=FXI+Insider+Transactions
Insider transactions (secform4.com): http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/FXI.htm
Insider transactions (insidercrow.com): http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=FXI
Ownership Summary (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/ownership-summary
Institutional Holdings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/institutional-holdings
Insiders (SEC Form 4) (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FXI/insider-trades
Insider Disclosure (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FXI/insider-transactions

## SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER VARIOUS SOURCES ##
PST (pennystocktweets.com): http://www.pennystocktweets.com/stocks/profile/FXI
Market Watch (marketwatch.com): http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/FXI
Bloomberg (bloomberg.com): http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FXI:US
Morningstar (morningstar.com): http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/s?t=FXI
Bussinessweek (businessweek.com): http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot_article.asp?ticker=FXI



$FXI DD Notes ~ http://www.ddnotesmaker.com/FXI
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Shaka_Zulu Shaka_Zulu 10 years ago
Ok. First move to 43.16
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Shaka_Zulu Shaka_Zulu 10 years ago
Boom. Clap.
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Shaka_Zulu Shaka_Zulu 10 years ago
A break of 41.58 is coming then a challenge to 42.... And beyond
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Shaka_Zulu Shaka_Zulu 10 years ago
First target hit next is 42
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Shaka_Zulu Shaka_Zulu 10 years ago
After 5 years of consolidation, FXI started to break away from trend in April and is ready to challenge 40 - 42 - 65. Now is the time to get in.
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xero90 xero90 12 years ago
50 about to cross 200! up
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zsvq1p zsvq1p 12 years ago
What ya thinking?

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xero90 xero90 14 years ago
anyone still here?
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thetechtrader thetechtrader 14 years ago
Mike Paulenoff tells subscribers: The technical set-up in the FXI coupled with the very constructive intermediate term chart pattern in the Shanghai Composite argue strongly that the China equity index is on the verge of pivoting to the upside into another powerful upleg off of its July low.

Chartwork on both Shanghai Composite and FXI at http://www.mptrader.com/middayminute/12/2010/7/
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Pennybuster Pennybuster 14 years ago
I'm in and Adding. :)
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adrian07 adrian07 15 years ago
Hey is anyone following FXI??

I think it is interesting, as is a play on China for all, longs and shorts.

I was suprised to see it move down today, reversing gains of last three days, it didn't quite make a close above $40, shame as this would have been great long entry point. Look for reverse head and shoulders.


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xero90 xero90 16 years ago
lol
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frenchee frenchee 16 years ago
no--we are out of office...
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xero90 xero90 16 years ago
Is anyone over here?
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frenchee frenchee 16 years ago
Short-term buy signal now in effect for FXI...
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frenchee frenchee 16 years ago
Where China Is Spending to Save Its ETFs and Economy

February 27, 2009 at 1:00 pm by Max Chen


ETF ChinaThe abrupt halt in China’s immense growth has prompted the country’s leaders to step in and provide relief for the ailing economy and, as a result, exchange traded funds (ETFs) targeting the emerging market.

China’s Communist Party has announced a hefty boost in public spending to ease along economic growth as export demand slows and the Central Bank has warned of deflationary risks, report Zhou Xin and Chris Buckley for Reuters UK. The government will spend money on infrastructure projects, social security improvements and expand domestic demand to enhance economic growth.

China’s Central Bank has prioritized the maintenance of stable economic growth by relaxing monetary policies and ensuring sufficient liquidity. The bank will also keep the yuan stable at a balanced level with a more flexible exchange rate.

The Chinese government is distributing around $580 billion in stimulus spending that was previously announced at the end of last year. China’s economic growth has dragged to 6.8% in the fourth quarter from 9% in the third quarter, and 10.1% in the second quarter.

According to TheStockAdvisors for iStockAnalyst, a potential investor should not miss out and have some exposure to the Chinese market when a recovery eventually comes their way. They note three ETFs to play through China’s markets:

* iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI). It covers the largest and most liquid Chinese companies that are available to foreign investors. It is seen as a Chinese version of the Dow.
* iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH). This is a broader ETF that covers 85% of publically available capitalizations of the Hong Kong Market. It is similar to our Wilshire 500. There are 44 holdings in the ETF. Financials account for 56%. Utilities make up 19%, industrials 12%, consumer discretionary 9%, tech 1.5%, telecom 1.5% and energy 0.4%.
* PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio (PGJ). This ETF tracks the Halter USX China Index which is made of U.S.-listed companies that get most of their revenue through China.

Carl Delfeld, managing director and global strategist of Chartwell Partners Wealth Management, thinks FXI is poised to fall more, writes Trang Ho for Investor’s Business Daily.

The Finance Minister calculates a deficit of $139 billion, or 3% of GDP. Exports fell 17.5% in January compared to the same month last year. Imports also diminished 43% for the same year-over-year period. The government has vowed to keep an 8% GDP growth target.

If you’re looking into a Chinese-themed country ETF and still don’t know which one you’d like then take a look here for a more in-depth view of other differences.
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frenchee frenchee 16 years ago
Weekly charts in iBox suggest short-term support at 23.35 will not hold next week. Looks like FXP is still the play with a target of 50.39.

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frenchee frenchee 16 years ago
China Moves Aggressively to Push Stock Prices Higher
By Tony Sagami

September 23, 2008

Over the last six years, the Chinese central bank had been focused on cooling down its red-hot economy and fighting inflation by repeatedly increasing interest rates and reserve requirements at Chinese banks.

How repeatedly? How about 18 straight rate increases!

Not any more. For the first time in six years, the People's Bank of China (the Chinese equivalent of our Federal Reserve Bank) reduced interest rates. China's key lending rate will drop from 7.47% to 7.2% as well as reducing bank reserve requirement by a full 1% to 16.5%.

After 18 rate hikes, you can just imagine how enthusiastic Chinese investors are over the news. And for good reason too.

The drop in lending rates and bank reserve ratios will provide a strong base of support of Chinese asset prices --- both stocks and real estate --- as well as stimulate the Chinese economy. Lowering interest rates will lower the cost of business borrowing and the cut in reserve requirements will reduce the funding costs for banks.

The biggest benefit of this turnabout in monetary policy isn't cheaper money but the clear signal that the Chinese government is going to stop pushing the exchange rate of the renminbi higher.

Congress has been aggressively pushing China to raise the exchange rate of its currency against the U.S. dollar but the higher Chinese renminbi has been killing Chinese exporters but now that monetary policy has switched from tightening to loosening, the renminbi is almost certain to reverse course, start to decline, and give its exporters a gigantic boost.

Let's connect three very important fundamental dots in China.

DOT #1: The Chinese economy has slowed but only slightly. Chinese GDP has increased by double-digit rates for five years in a row and has grown by 10.1% in the first six months of 2008. That's a little off its 11%-plus rate of last year, but China is still growing by a very healthy pace.

DOT #2: The Shanghai Composite Index is down by 60% from its November peak. That big decline has pushed the valuations of Chinese stocks from very expensive to very cheap. In fact, I think the valuations are dirt, dirt cheap compared to the pace of economic growth.

DOT #3: The about-face in monetary policy is akin to throwing gasoline on a smoldering fire. Now that the Chinese stock market has the interest rate wind at its back, the new path of least resistance will be upward. I've been waiting for a catalyst to catch the Asian markets on fire and we now have it.

While the aftermath of the AIG/Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/Bear Stears/Lehman Brothers meltdown may not be over and I cannot say with 100% certainty that Asian stocks have hit bottom...but I think we're darn close. That makes this a very opportune time to add some Asian spice to your portfolio.
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frenchee frenchee 16 years ago
looks like the next resistance area is the downtrend line on the daily charts in the iBox.
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EquityTrader EquityTrader 16 years ago
Absolutely watch the FXP go too.
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frenchee frenchee 16 years ago
Got a short-term buy signal today...
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EquityTrader EquityTrader 16 years ago
Excellent post. US companies aren't buying right now. Could see FXP go to $120.
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frenchee frenchee 16 years ago
China Cuts 1-Year Lending Rate; Reduces Lending Curb (Update1)

By Li Yanping

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- China cut interest rates for the first time in six years and reduced the amount of cash that some banks are required to set aside after economic growth slowed and amid tumult on Wall Street.

The People's Bank of China cut the one-year lending rate to 7.20 percent from 7.47 percent, effective tomorrow, and lowered the reserve ratio by 1 percentage point at some banks. The changes were in a statement on the central bank's Web site today.

Cooling inflation has given the central bank more room to move, while global financial turmoil adds to the risk of bigger slowdowns in China's export markets. Policy makers want to protect jobs and prevent a slump in the world's fourth-biggest economy after four quarters of slowing growth.

``This is the first tangible sign of a move to a pro-growth stance by the Chinese government,'' said Mark Tan, who helps oversee about $3 billion in Asian equities at UOB Asset Management in Singapore.

The central bank pushed the reserve requirement to a record 17.5 percent in June. The nation's largest banks were excluded from the cut. The requirement for smaller banks drops by 1 percentage point from Sept. 25. For lenders in earthquake- affected areas, the reduction is 2 percentage points.

-- With reporting by Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Michael Dwyer

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frenchee frenchee 17 years ago
March from the mid March low continues strong...
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frenchee frenchee 17 years ago
Yes--don't know it will stary north of 100 however.
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EquityTrader EquityTrader 17 years ago
Think FXP will go beyond $100 in the next 30 days.
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frenchee frenchee 17 years ago
FXI nearing trend breakout on the daily charts shown in the iBox. If FXI breaks the downtrend line, time to go long with FXI. Otherwise, if the uptrend line is broken on FXI, go long FXP.
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EquityTrader EquityTrader 17 years ago
I love the FXP! :) moves 4% a day!
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Myself °¿° Myself °¿° 17 years ago
Yeah, did you see the FXP i/v drain?...
Fun stuff eh?!
Thanks for the post.

FXI -




FXP -



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frenchee frenchee 17 years ago
ProShares UltraShort China ETF: Caveat Emptor!
posted on: February 18, 2008 | about stocks: FXI / FXP

A week ago I concluded that the UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares fund (FXP) was not working as advertised. I decided to follow up with ProShares to get to the bottom of the mystery and ended up discovering that there is much more to these leveraged funds than meets the eye. In short (no pun intended) this fund is working as advertised but it's not what most people expect. And judging from the exchanges on the message boards I can assure you that there are a lot of people out there that don't understand what they are invested in. Apparently ProShares is used to the confusion because they have the subject aptly covered in all kinds of handout materials.

First, let my clarify what the target index is. It is not the Hang Seng and it is not the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index as some people have suggested. The former is a Hong Kong index and the latter is an index fund marketed by Barclays which attempts to track the same index that FXP attempts to track. The FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index consists of "25 of the largest and most liquid Chinese stocks (Red Chips and H shares) listed and trading on the Hong Kong exchange." Unfortunately, it's hard to find historic values of this index but I was able to pull a few key values off of stockcharts.com. Using those values I redid the analysis presented in my last blog post and pretty much got the same result:



So why am I not getting the result I'd expect? Given the 15.3% drop in the FTSE/Xinhua index I should have seen a 30.6% increase in FXP, right? Wrong! Here's why.

As explained in the ProShares Supplement of Additional Information [SAI] the fund's objective is to to match 200% of the performance of the index on a given DAY. The SAI goes on to explain that "for periods greater than one day, the use of leverage tends to cause the performance of a ProFund to be either greater than, or less than, the index performance times the stated multiple in the fund objective." It turns out that mathematically it is virtually impossible to match 200% of the index over longer periods as illustrated in this extreme example that I fabricated, where I assume that the index goes up 20% one day and down 10% the next day and the fund meets its objective each day.



As you can see, while the index ends up 8% the ultrashort fund would end down 28%, not 16%. A bit counterintuitive, isn't it?

As the ProShares folks explain it this phenomenon is caused by the leverage and the volatility of the index they are tracking. This is such an important concept that ProShares even went so far as to produce a table of estimates of how the fund would perform under different combinations of index return and volatility. What it shows is pretty staggering. With 40% volatility the fund can drop by 38% over the course of one year even if the underlying index is unchanged. With no volatility the fund can rise by almost 178% in one year while the index drops by only 40%. Unfortunately, this analysis is in the SAI and not in the prospectus. Even more unfortunate is the fact that it wouldn't have made any difference to me since I didn't read the prospectus anyway because the whole concept of this fund seemed pretty simple to me. Boy was I wrong!

So, the obvious question is why do they have a fund that tries to match the daily return of an index? Why can't you have it match a longer period? If I hold the fund for a year I expect it to match the performance of the index over a one year period. Well, the problem is that every shareholder has a different holding period and you can only get the math to work out for one holding period. So you might as well target a one day holding period.

The way I see it this holding period problem is created by the leverage. In a leveraged fund you end each day with different leverage than you started with. If you start the day with 2:1 inverse leverage and the index moves up 10% you end up with 2.25:1 leverage at the end of the day. If you were targeting the fund's long term performance for someone whose holding period began that morning you would let the leverage roll over each day since they would measure their performance relative to their starting point when the leverage was 2:1. But in that case someone who buys in on day 2 would not be buying a 2:1 leverage fund. They would be buying a 2.25:1 leverage fund. So I suspect that the fund manager rebalances the leverage at the start of each day.

This whole thing sort of reminds me of Einstein's theory of relativity. I think it would be a lot easier to just buy twice as much of an unleveraged short fund. That way you will know exactly what you are getting.
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