DiscoverGold
2 days ago
Gold Recovery Eyes 50-Day MA Amid Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | November 19, 2024
• Gold continues its recovery, heading to test resistance near the 50-Day MA, with a confluence zone higher between 2,684 and 2,692.
Gold made further progress on Tuesday towards a test of resistance around the 50-Day MA, as it broke above Monday’s high and will likely close above it. The high for the day so far is 2,639 and the 50-Day line is at 2,656. Today’s advance also reclaimed the uptrend line and gold may close above the line, which would provide another sign of strength, although minor. Gold could have seen signs of resistance around the line but instead it didn’t look like it mattered as the day’s high of 2,639 was a little above the line.
Counter-Trend Rally Advances
It looks like gold completed a swing low with last week’s low of 2,537. A bullish reversal confirmed with yesterday’s strong advance. The swing low was around the 50% retracement and a prior top. Gold completed a 253 point or 9.1% correction at the low. That’s the biggest drop on a percentage basis since the May 2023 correction.
Even if the low is set for the correction, that doesn’t mean gold goes right back up to new highs. Of course it could, but the more likely scenario looks to be a rally of some degree to test prior support levels as resistance levels. Once resistance is found there will be a pullback and another attempt to reclaim the price level, or a reversal that falls to retest support levels.
Confluence Leaves Clues
One of the reasons that confluence is looked for in technical analysis is that it helps identify potentially stronger levels of support or resistance. Confluence is when two or more (preferred) price levels are identified by analysis near each other. This seems to act like a magnet for price sometimes. For gold, the price range from the confluence of various indicators highlights 2,684 to 2,692. There is the 20-Day MA at 2,684, a prior swing high at 2,686, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,692. If that price zone does act like a magnet, then gold will reclaim the 50-Day MA on the way up.
As for the bullish case for gold beyond the 20-Day MA, it first needs to close above the 20-Day line. Until then, the expectation is for some time to go by first, starting the current rally and test of possible resistance.
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DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 236.5k, down 18.9k.
The week began by gold slicing through its 50-day on Monday. This was then followed by four more sessions of selling, ending the week down 4.6 percent to $2,570/ounce.
A couple of weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Since then, the metal has dropped back-to-back. On October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s eight weeks ago, $2,540s-50s nine weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August.
Gold bugs can take solace in the fact that $2,540s-50s remains intact, with Thursday’s intraday drop to $2,542 attracting buying interest. The daily has gotten oversold, so a rally is possible. Else, bears will be eyeing $2,440s-50s, with the 200-day at $2,409.
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DiscoverGold
5 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 16, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 25701 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 26188.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 25957.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 9.290% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 25415 which still remains 10.29% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 5074 made 1926 weeks . Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 2 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Hold Support That Could Lead to a Bounce
By: Bruce Powers | November 15, 2024
• After testing support near 2,532, gold eyes resistance at 2,619 while contending with the impact of significant technical breakdowns from earlier this week.
Gold traded inside day on Friday, with a high of 2,581 and a low of 2,554. That range is contained with the price range from Thursday. Today’s price action represents a rest following the successful test of support yesterday. Yesterday ended with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. However, the pattern needs a trigger to be valid and that would happen on a rally above Thursday’s high of 2,581.
Support Holds Around Prior High
Support was seen yesterday around prior resistance at the August high of 2,532 and a 50% retracement level at 2,534. Also, notice that an extended bottom channel line from a prior bull flag formation also identifies possible support around yesterday’s lows. So, there is some technical evidence pointing to a possible bottom that could at least lead to a bounce. But first an advance above yesterday’s high is needed.
Breakdown of Rising Channel May Take Time to Recover
The current correction did some technical damage on the way down that may need a little time to be fully resolved. There was a decisive decline below the 50-Day MA, internal uptrend line, and a prior daily swing low that is also a monthly low. It was the first time in nine months that a prior monthly low had been broken to the downside. Moreover, the drop through the trendline triggered a breakdown of a rising parallel trend channel.
The channel represented some degree of symmetry and now that symmetry has been broken. It also improves the chance that gold may eventually test support around the lower rising uptrend line. That would be a natural progression of price following such a clear channel break. The price represented by the line would depend on when it was reached.
Bullish Reversal Above 2,619
A bullish reversal from yesterday’s lows has gold heading up into potential resistance at the prior swing low of 2,600, then Thursday’s high at 2,619. Thursday’s high can be used as a rough proxy for the trendline price for now. Then there is the 50-Day MA at 2,652, currently. Given the potential significance of the breakdowns, it would not be surprising to see a rally into resistance, to be followed by a drop that tests the week’s lows and possibly breaks below it. That scenario may start to change on a daily close above the 50-Day MA.
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DiscoverGold
7 days ago
Gold Bullish Hammer Pattern Hints at Potential Recovery
By: Bruce Powers | November 14, 2024
• After reaching a new trend low, gold bounced back, forming a bullish pattern that may signal a bottom if support at 2,537 holds.
Gold looks to be trying to establish a bottom as it fell to a new trend low of 2,537 on Thursday before buyers took back control and generated a strong bounce. This puts gold on track to end the day forming a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Support was seen in an area previously discussed around the August high of 2,532 and the 50% retracement level at 2,534.
Also, notice that today’s low was near the lower extended trendline from an earlier bull flag formation. In other words, today’s low is a logical area to find resistance that may lead to a sustained bullish reversal
Bullish Reversal Indicated Above 2,681
A bullish reversal will be triggered on a decisive rally above today’s high of 2,681, at the time of this writing. Some technical damage was done during the current decline as support failed first at the 20-Day MA, then the 50-Day MA failed. That was followed by a monthly bearish reversal of October’s price range on a drop below the daily swing low of 2,602, which was also the monthly low.
Those indicators all show potential resistance levels on the way up, assuming today’s low is sustained. If it is not and today’s low is broken to the downside, then crude oil looks likely to approach a possible support zone from 2,484 to 2,473. The top level is a prior resistance top, and it is followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Brief Dip Below 20-Week Moving Average
It is also interesting to note that the drop today briefly put the price of crude oil below the 20-Week MA (not shown), which is at 2,556. The 20-Week MA maintained support almost 100% of the time since it was reclaimed during the week of October 16. It provides additional evidence for a potential low today, at least on a temporary basis. And it has proven to be a viable trend indicator and should continue to do so. This means that a drop below today’s low will also further confirm a breakdown of the long-term weekly moving average.
Rise Above 2,619 Needed
Crude oil needs to rally above and stay above Wednesday’s high of 2,619 to have a chance at going higher. Resistance around the internal uptrend will also need to be watched as it is currently around yesterday’s high. That trendline should provide clues as it is also the bottom support line for a rising parallel trend channel. The channel shows symmetry within the uptrend. That symmetry was broken on the drop below the lower line, and the next lower trendline is down a bit on the way to the 200-Day MA at 2,398.
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1 week ago
Gold Sinks to New Low, Bearish Trend Gains Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | November 13, 2024
• Gold continues its downtrend, breaking through major support levels, with key price levels of 2,534 and 2,484 in focus as selling pressure remains high.
Selling again dominated trading in gold on Wednesday as it fell to a new trend low of 2,575. Also, it continues to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and may fall further before the end of the day. The bearish correction saw gold drop through the 50-Day MA on Monday, an uptrend line and monthly low at 2,602 on Tuesday, and reach a new low today. Downward momentum has been steady with lower prices likely. A daily close below the prior trend low of 2,590 will further confirm the bear trend.
Targets 50% Retracement at 2,534
Indications are that gold is heading towards a test of support around the 50% retracement at 2,534 and prior resistance at 2,532. The lower price was also the highest traded price for August. Also, 2,532 begins a price range down to approximately 2,484. Support might be seen anywhere within that range. Subsequently, the next lower target looks to be a range from 2,484 to 2,473. The first price level is a prior trend high from July, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,473.
Monthly Bearish Reversal Triggered
Following a break below the October low yesterday, natural gas confirmed the breakdown by ending the day below the monthly low. The monthly trend of higher monthly highs and higher lows has persisted for eight months until now. This is a bearish sign on the larger time frame indicating further selling pressure for the precious metal.
Downtrend Progresses
Notice that resistance today was seen at a high of 2,619, a clear test of resistance at the internal trendline. The line was previously representing support but since the drop below the line this week, it now represents potential resistance. And it acted as an area of resistance today as gold turned back down once it was hit. In a downtrend, once support is broken and then subsequently successfully tested as resistance, the decline is ready to proceed.
That is what we see today. Since the close for today will likely occur in the lower quarter of the day’s price range and below yesterday’s low of 2,590, sellers remain clearly in charge. So, the next lower target zone is looking more likely to be reached before this correction is over.
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1 week ago
Gold Decline Deepens, Eyes Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | November 12, 2024
• Gold's bearish trend deepens as it breaks key support levels, signaling potential for an extended correction to the 2,532 zone.
Gold continued its bearish retracement on Tuesday, with a new low of 2,590 before it encountered at least short-term support. Two key price indicators were broken on the way down, the internal uptrend line and a prior swing low, which is also a monthly low.
Gold looks like it will be closing weak, in the red and below the trendline. A daily close below the line improves the chance for an eventual retracement down to the previous breakout level around 2,532. Also, a daily close below the monthly low 2,602 would be bearish.
Second Week of Correction
A new record high of 2,790 for gold was reached two weeks ago. It was quickly followed by a pullback that continues. The weekly pattern was the giveaway. That week closed as a bearish reversal doji shooting star (not shown) and a bearish signal triggered last week. This week is the second week down and it shows no sign of reversing.
Gold is in a waterfall type decline that could certainly test lower prices before it is done. Bearish sentiment was recently reflected in the 20-Day MA recently crossing below the 50-Day after being above it since July 3. Moreover, a daily close below the 2,602 monthly lows may prolong the correction.
Monthly Price Levels
The monthly price patterns have significance as they impact on the shorter time frames. Today is the first instance in nine months of a prior month’s low being violated. Starting in March, gold progressed with a series of higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs, largely. That pattern was violated today and if the breakdown continues to be confirmed it could lead to a deeper and longer correction in the price of gold.
Lower Targets?
The 2,532-price zone has a good chance of being reached if downward pressure in the price of gold continues. There is also an interim price zone to watch around 2,557 to 2,551, consisting of the 20-Week MA and the 127.2% extended target for an intraday falling ABCD pattern. The 20-Week MA is a potentially significant support area as it last marked support in early-August. It has largely seen gold traded above it since October 2023.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 9, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 255.3k, down 23.3k.
Last week, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. It was a sign of exhaustion, and the metal gave back two percent this week to $2,695/ounce. From gold bugs’ perspective, the good thing is that Thursday’s low of $2,650 was bought, with the 50-day ($2,662) breached intraday but defended by close.
On the daily, it is possible gold rallies a bit more, but it remains way overbought on the weekly.
Before this week’s decline, the yellow metal rallied relentlessly from June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts – $2,610s seven weeks ago, $2,540s-50s eight weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August. These are all potential supports now.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 9, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26948 and is trading up about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Up to now, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 27334 and support forming below at 26834. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a significant move of 5.407% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 26503 which still remains 15.02% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28018 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 24565 and 28257. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26544. Additional support is to be found at 26462. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Plunges Below Key Levels as Bearish Momentum Builds
By: Bruce Powers | November 6, 2024
• Gold plunges post-election, breaking key support at 20-Day MA and eyeing a retest of 50-Day MA near 2,638 for potential support.
Gold fell hard on Wednesday following the U.S. Presidential Election, reaching a low of 2,652. It fell through initial support levels at the 20-MA at 2,714 and the prior trend high and top of a bull flag pattern at 2,686. Today will likely end with a wide-ranging red candle and a weak close. At the time of this writing, gold continues to trade near the lows of the day and looks likely to close in the lower quarter of the day’s price range.
Bearish Momentum Accelerates
Given the accelerated downward momentum seen today, it looks like gold is heading for a retest of support around the 50-Day MA at 2,638, if not lower. The next lower pivot is at the bottom of the bull flag at 2,600. That low is also a higher swing low and therefore part of the price structure of the rising near-term trend. If it fails to hold as support and gold falls lower, a violation of the trend structure will occur thereby providing another bearish sign.
Targeting 50-Day Moving Average at 2,638
Nonetheless, the higher 50-Day MA has a good chance of seeing support. The 50-Day line was reclaimed in early-July after natural gas traded below the line for about 17 days. After the subsequent rally a pullback successfully tested support around the 50-Day line with a couple minor swing lows. Following the August 5 test of the 50-Day line, the bull trend accelerated, and the faster 20-Day MA began to identify support for the rising trend.
Trend Channel Failed Breakout
Let’s also consider the rising parallel trend channel with the lower line beginning from the mid-February swing low. A parallel of the trendline was then connected to where multiple highs and lows hit the line, as shown on the chart with red and green arrows. Subsequently, the market recognized resistance around the top channel line around the September high and then again with the most recent record high of 2,790.
The rally into new highs indicated a potential bullish breakout of the channel. Of course, given today’s bearish price action, a failed breakout has happened instead. Now that a bullish breakout has failed and key 20-Day MA trend support is broken, there is always the potential that gold falls to the lower uptrend line of the channel. When it is reached, if it is, will determine whether the 2,600-swing low is tested.
Weekly Bearish Pattern Triggered Today
As mentioned again yesterday, the weekly candlestick pattern (not shown) for last week was bearish. Gold ended with a doji shooting star formation that triggered below last week’s low of 2,725. The breakdown triggered today, and the subsequent bearish performance is what might be expected from such a weekly pattern.
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2 weeks ago
Gold 20-Day MA Support Faces Crucial Test
By: Bruce Powers | November 5, 2024
• Gold sees continued weakness, likely leading to a test of support near the 20-Day moving average as traders assess recent bearish signals and key support zones.
Gold dipped to a new pullback low of 2,725 on Tuesday as it continued to see weakness following a bearish one-day reversal last Thursday. Since then, momentum has died down as seen in the recent narrow range days. Gold looks to be on its way to test support around the 20-Day MA, now at 2,711.
The fact that it is doing so slowly may be an indication that underlying demand remains strong. If so, support at the 20-Day line might hold and lead to a bullish reversal. The potential significance of the 20-Day line is enhanced by the internal uptrend line that marks a similar price area.
Key Levels Seen at 20-Day MA
Since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed on August 8, it has done a good job of identifying trend support. There were a couple times since that gold fell below the line, but it didn’t last long. Therefore, support may be seen again around the 20-Day line. If it does not, and gold falls below the 20-Day line and stays there, it will highlight weakness and will improve the chance for a test of support around the 50-Day MA at 2,633.
However, potential support around the recent trend high and top of a bull flag pattern at 2,686, needs to also be considered. So, this means that if a decline below the 20-Day line occurs, watch the price action relative to the prior couple of times gold fell below the line since early-August, along with the 2,686-price zone.
Weekly Bearish Pattern a Concern
There is concern about a bearish pattern in the weekly chart for gold. Last week, a bearish doji shooting star pattern completed and the week closed below the previous record close of 2,747 from the week before. A bearish weekly breakdown triggers below last week’s low of 2,725. That would increase the chance of testing support around the 20-Day MA and the 2,686-prior high. However, if it is to trigger, it may not happen this week. It is too early to tell but there is a possibility that gold stays inside last week’s range until the close this week.
Finally, be aware that there have been two reversal days since a bull flag breakout triggered on October 15. There was an outside down day on October 23 and a sharp one-day bearish reversal to a three-day low on October 31.
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2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 2, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 278.7k, down 17.6k.
Gold just flashed first signs of exhaustion. This week’s weekly gravestone doji showed up after six up weeks in seven, falling 0.2 percent to $2,749/ounce and posting a new high of $2,802 on Wednesday.
The metal has rallied relentlessly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Six weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
Before the first layer of support at $2,610s gets tested, gold bugs’ mettle is likely to be tested just north of $2,700.
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3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 2, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27492 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27291 and overhead resistance forming above at 27520. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 28018 to 27369. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28018 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 28018. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 27762 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 26366 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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3 weeks ago
Gold Signals Potential Downturn with Bearish Candlestick Patterns
By: Bruce Powers | November 1, 2024
• Gold may extend losses after forming a bearish doji; critical support lies at 2,700 with further declines likely if breached.
Gold took a rest on Friday and traded inside day with a high of 2,762 and a low of 2,733. However, at the time of this writing it continues to trade near the lows of the day and may end the day lower. The day’s range is largely contained within the lower half of yesterday’s trading range, which can be considered bearish.
Also, notice the developing bearish shooting star candlestick pattern, although not at the high of a trend. It reflects bearish behavior for the day and the potential for a continuation lower.
Breakdown in Process
Yesterday, gold dropped below a short trendline that marks trend support for a tight consolidation pattern from the past couple of weeks. That put it at risk of moving into a bearish correction, especially since the day’s close was in the lower third of the day’s price range. Today’s bearish candle is additional evidence for a possible bearish continuation.
Subsequently, a decline below yesterday’s low of 2,732 will likely lead to a test of lower support areas. The first being a range from 2,700 to 2,686, consisting of the 20-Day MA, and a prior trend high and bull flag high, respectively. Moreover, an internal uptrend line is pointing to a similar price area. If it fails to stop the descent, the 50-Day MA at 2,624, along with the bottom of the flag at 2.60, become likely targets.
Weekly Chart Ending Bearish
Of greater concern is what is shown on the weekly chart (not included). Gold is set to complete a bearish doji shooting star candlestick pattern today. And it is set to close weak, in the lower third of the week’s trading range. A decisive drop below this week’s low of 2,725 will trigger a breakdown of the weekly pattern and therefore a bearish weekly reversal.
It would be confirmed on a daily close below the low. The next lower potential weekly support level would be last week’s low of 2,709. Also, keep an eye on the three-week low at 2,638 if gold continues to fall. Gold is very overbought on the weekly relative strength index (RSI) and shows a minor bearish divergence in the daily time frame.
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3 weeks ago
Bullish Momentum Builds in Gold as New Resistance Looms
By: Bruce Powers | October 30, 2024
• Gold advances to another record high, with potential resistance zones emerging as bullish momentum faces a possible resistance zone.
Gold trended higher on Wednesday as it advanced above yesterday’s high to a new record high of 2,790. However, trading continues near the highs of the day at the time of this writing, and a higher price may be reached before the close. If gold closes relatively strong, above the halfway point of the day’s range, which is at 2,780 if the high is final, a breakout of a rising parallel trend channel will be further confirmed.
Bullish Channel Breakout Confirmed
An initial breakout of the channel triggered yesterday, and the day closed above the channel line. As can be seen marked on the chart with red and green arrows, the area of the top channel line was hit as either support or resistance more than seven times, including most recently at last week’s high. Moreover, today’s low of 2,771 shows a successful test of support at the line and price was rejected to the upside.
Potential Resistance Sits at 2,797 to 2,815
Today’s bullish price advance puts gold in a good position to challenge the next identified potential resistance zone. It looks to begin at 2,797, which is the 200% extended retracement of the significant decline that began from the 2011 peak. Whether that relationship leads to resistance remains to be seen.
An initial target derived from measuring the recent bull flag points to the top of the range at 2,815. Along with a couple other price levels in between, a range from around 2,797 to 2,815 is identified as a possible price zone where supply may increase and stall the ascent or lead to a retracement.
Possible Time Symmetry Approaching
Regarding the recent bull flag pattern, since the first advance following the September 4 swing low ended after three weeks up on the weekly chart (not shown), the current second advance of the flag could do the same. After three weeks the potential for time symmetry exists as the two rallies will match after three weeks.
If this is to occur, it would be supportive of the possibility of completing the next identified targets this week. Furthermore, if the pattern holds, the high this week may be followed by a pullback or consolidation phase. If it does note advance would be getting extended based on time.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Rallies Towards Higher Targets Amid Strong Demand
By: Bruce Powers | October 29, 2024
• Gold reached a record high on strong momentum, targeting the next key resistance levels if strength can be sustained.
Enthusiasm for gold intensified on Tuesday as it broke out to a new record high. And it is on track to close strong, in the top third of the day’s price range. At the time of this writing, gold had reached a new record high of 2,773, which followed support for the day at 2,740. Today’s bullish price action puts gold in a favorable position to rally towards the next higher target zone. But that depends on seeing further signs of strength for gold.
Breakout of Rising Channel
Notice that gold is trading around a top parallel channel line that is copied from the lower rising trendline and connects two previous swing highs. Resistance had been seen around that top line recently and it could yet again. Gold has yet to fully break out above the line and therefore it may show further signs of resistance. If gold continues to strengthen it is likely heading for the next higher target zone. That may entail a rise above and away from the top line or an ascent the continues at a similar slope and retains the channel line as resistance.
Targets 2,797 to 2,815
The next higher target zone is from 2,797 to 2,815. It includes several important levels by themselves but potentially more significant when clustered together. The top level of 2,815 is the target from the recent bullish flag pattern breakout. It is a key level as the next potential target zone above there indicates a possible jump to 2,846.
Otherwise, resistance may be seen on the approach to 2,815. Both other two price levels, 2,797 and 2,808, are determined from long-term extended Fibonacci levels. One pattern measurement starts in 2022, and the other in 2011. There is also a very short-term pattern target within the same price range at 2,801.
Near-term Support Levels
Near-term potential support is at the prior high of 2,758, followed by today’s low of 2,740. If the 2,740 level fails to hold as support the chance for a deeper retracement increases. The key near-term trend indicator remains the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,685. Notice that it has converged with prior resistance at the top of the recent bull flag. Since the 20-Day line seems to be tracking the internal uptrend line, it can be given a little added significance.
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3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 26, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27546 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27726 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27378 and overhead resistance forming above at 27633. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 27726, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27726 to 27221. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27726 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27726. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 27474 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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4 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 26, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 296.2k, up 9.8k.
There is no stopping the yellow metal, rallying this week 0.9 percent to $2,755/ounce, tagging $2,773 on Wednesday. This was the third up week in a row – and sixth in last seven.
Gold has rallied strongly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Five weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
If one were to nitpick, the daily RSI has made lower highs even as gold went on to add $100 in the past month.
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BottomBounce
4 weeks ago
silver market is experiencing a shortage, with a projected deficit of 215.3 million ounces in 2024. This is due to a combination of factors, including:
Demand: Global demand for silver is expected to increase by 2% in 2024, driven by industrial consumption.
Supply: Supply is expected to decrease by 1% in 2024.
Investment: The pool of silver available for investors is a small fraction of the total silver produced.
The silver shortage is expected to continue for a fourth year in a row. Silver is used in many products, including electronics, jewelry, solar panels, and electric vehicles.
Some analysts predict that silver prices will rise to new all-time highs in 2024. The shortage is expected to put pressure on prices, which could encourage new mine production or draw silver out of private hoards. $GLD
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4 weeks ago
Gold Faces Pullback After Reversal, Eyes Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | October 24, 2024
• Gold’s short-term pullback follows a bearish reversal from a record high. Traders now watch key support levels to assess if the bullish trend will continue or a longer rest comes first.
Gold consolidated on Thursday to trade inside day. That follows a bearish reversal day yesterday that has the potential to lead to a deeper decline. The reversal day followed a new record high of 2,758 that was hit earlier in the day. Subsequently, sellers took control and drove the price down below the prior day’s low of 2,719, which is where gold closed the session. This is short-term bearish price action that typically leads to a pullback of some degree. The degree will help provide clues as to the underlying strength or weakness in gold.
Top Channel Line Stops Ascent
Notice that resistance was seen around the combination of a 250% extended retracement level at 2,754 and the top rising parallel trend channel line. However, given the potential for higher targets a bullish continuation above this week’s high is anticipated following a period of consolidation or a pullback. Gold recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern, after a final test of the 20-Day MA as support, on October 15.
A measuring objective from the flag formation points to an eventual target of 2,815. But it is not only the flag identifying that price area. There are two other Fibonacci measurements confirming the price area. One points to 2,797 and the other to 2,808. Together, the above price levels generate a potential upside target zone from 2,797 to 2,815.
Watching for Inside Day Breakout
A breakout of the inside day, either up or down, will point to the next direction other than a false signal. Today’s high or resistance was at 2,743 and the low was 2,714. More importantly, the high of 2,758 and low at 2,709 from Wednesday provide more significant price levels to gauge strength or weakness. Key support levels are the recent trend breakout area of 2,686 and the 20-Day MA at 2,670. Either could present strong support.
Above 20-Day MA Retains Bullish Outlook
As long as the price of gold stays above the 20-Day MA during a pullback, the outlook for gold remains bullish. If gold falls below the 20-Day line and stays there are continues to fall, the 50-Day MA at 2,594 becomes a target. Notice that that 50-Day line has been rising and is on track to converge with support at the bottom of the flag pattern, at 2,602.
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1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 19, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 286.4k, up 8.3k.
After three tentative weekly candles – shooting star, spinning top and dragonfly doji – gold yet again shone this week, up a solid two percent to $2,730/ounce, which set a fresh high.
The yellow metal has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, it enjoyed one after another breakout.
Four weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
This week’s breakout followed a defense of $2,610s last week.
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1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 19, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27300 and is trading up about 31% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27378 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26947.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 14th at 27378, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27378 to 26544. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27378 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27378. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 26596 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Hits Record High of $2,721, Eyes on Higher Targets
By: Bruce Powers | October 18, 2024
• Surging to $2,721, gold shows strong bullish momentum with key targets at $2,754 and $2,815, supported by a breakout from the bull flag pattern.
Gold prices continued to strengthen on Friday, reaching a new record high of 2,721. Buyers remain in charge at the time of this writing as the precious metal continues to trade near the highs for the day. Today’s bullish price action shows upward momentum improving relative to the prior three days since the initial breakout of a bull flag trend continuation pattern. Notice the wider trading range today relative to the prior three days. A strong daily and weekly close today will put gold in a solid technical position to challenge higher potential targets.
First Target is 2,724
The first target zone is the initial target for a rising ABCD pattern at 2,724, as shown on the chart in purple. It would be an obvious location to begin to see resistance that might lead to a pullback. Subsequently, if it is exceeded, 2,754 is next up on the agenda. Reaching that price level completes a 250% extended retracement of the bearish correction that began from the March 2022 peak. Also, keep an eye on the top parallel channel rising trendline as it may provide additional clues when the two price levels are approached.
Bull Flag Points to 2,815
Nonetheless, a higher potential target at 2,815 is derived from calculating the measuring objective for the bull flag. The breakout for the flag triggered following a successful test of support at the 20-Day MA earlier in session. That was the launch pad. There is also a slightly earlier target a little lower than the flag target at 2,797. That price level will compete a 200% retracement of the bearish correction that began from the 2011 peak at 1,921.
First Support to Watch at 2,686 Breakout Level
On the downside, a decline below today’s low of 2,692 indicates short-term weakness and could lead to a deeper pullback. The breakout to new highs occurred above 2,686 and it is an obvious potential target to be tested as support. Nonetheless, if it happens before new highs for gold a deeper pullback seems likely given that there has only been one bullish follow-through day, which was today. Key is going to be the 20-Day MA. Since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed on August 8, it has done a good job of identifying an area of trend support. Therefore, it should continue to do so and if it doesn’t, that is a warning sign.
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1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 12, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 278.2k, down 21.8k.
Three weeks ago, in a shooting star week, gold printed $2,709 intraday before heading lower. It has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, the yellow metal enjoyed one after another breakout.
Three weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20; this followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
This week, after coming under pressure in the first three sessions, bids showed up Thursday at $2,610s, with an intraday low of $2,619, ending the week up 0.3 percent to $2,676/ounce and forming a weekly dragonfly doji. Having defended the first layer of support, gold bugs deserve the benefit of the doubt in the sessions ahead.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 12, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26763 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26724 and overhead resistance forming above at 26894. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 26678. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23386 and 27582. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of September 23rd has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 25704 made back during the week of August 19th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of July 15th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
2 months ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 5, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 299.9k, down 15.5k.
This was a week in which gold bugs had an excellent opportunity to rally, as the tensions between Israel and Iran went up a few notches. Gold ticked $2,695 intraday Tuesday and that was it. By Friday, the metal was essentially unchanged for the week at $2,668/ounce.
Gold is ready for a breather. It has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. On September 26, it reached a fresh all-time high of $2,709; this was a week in which a weekly shooting star showed up.
There is plenty of support underneath. A couple of weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20; this followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, the yellow metal broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
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