It is pretty clear to most investors that one of the major
reasons for the weak economy over the past few years was the
housing crisis. Sluggish economic conditions, low consumer
confidence, rising jobless rate and tightened mortgage-lending
standards further exacerbated the condition of this key
industry.
Having survived the hazardous years of 2007-2009, the housing
market is once again on the path of recovery. Indeed, 2012 proved
to be a strong year for the market with significant upside noticed
in new home sales volume and other key industry statistics (Two
Sector ETFs to Buy in 2013).
It seems that mortgage interest rates hovering near record lows
along with somewhat higher rentals have turned the tide for the
sector thereby making homes more affordable. Also, a higher
employment level and rising consumer confidence in the market have
undoubtedly made the path to recovery smoother for the sector.
It should also be noted that the inventory of foreclosed homes
and short sales are declining, thus stabilizing the prices of new
homes. Additionally, many buyers are selecting larger and more
upscale homes with energy-efficient features, which are increasing
the average sales prices (Housing ETFs Rally on Solid Data).
Moreover, orders for new homes, backlogs, and homes to be
delivered are steadily increasing and with market demand gaining
momentum, home prices appear to be on the rise.
If that wasn’t enough, investors are also seeing greater
confidence out of the homebuilder sentiment index. The benchmark
has been surging and is back to pre-recession levels, while
estimates of sales sentiment are also positive (Is XHB a Better
Housing ETF Play?).
Based on this information and the shifting perception of the
housing market, it appears as though the residential construction
sector can continue its recovery with tremendous upside
potential going forward.
In fact, homebuilder ETFs have been one of the top performing
sectors in 2012 attributable to improving housing and job data. The
ETFs continued to maintain its uptrend in 2013 trying to break the
highest levels witnesses before subprime crisis (Best Construction
ETF to Ride the Housing Upswing?).
Below we are highlighting two ETFs tracking the homebuilder
segment, either of which could make for interesting plays if this
trend continues:
iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction
(ITB)
Investors looking to capitalize on 2012’s best performing sector
should invest in ETFs that have heavy exposure to the residential
real estate market. And for a direct exposure to U.S. homebuilding
companies, ITB represents an excellent option (Top Zacks Ranked
Construction ETF- ITB).
ITB offers a pure play into the sector as evidenced by its
allocation of 64.79% of its asset base of $2 billion to home
construction companies. Among building materials, home improvement
and furnishing, the allocation is limited to 40%.
The fund also offers exposure to 29 companies in which
established homebuilders like Pulte Group, DR Horton Inc and Lennar
Corp make up the top line of the fund.
All of these companies could be poised to deliver strong gains
going forward, thereby providing a boost to the performance of the
ETF. The fund charges an expense ratio of 47 basis points, making
it an average cost choice.
The fund ended 2012 on a high note recording a gain of 78.87%
and also started the year with a bang delivering a gain of
10.6%.
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
(XHB)
XHB appears to be rich in an asset base of $2.5 billion and
offers liquidity as revealed by its trading volume of more than 4
million shares a day. The fund charges a fee of 35 basis points a
year (Top Ranked Homebuilder ETF in Focus: XHB).
The fund’s asset base is spread across 36 securities. However,
it should be noted that for investors looking for a direct exposure
to residential real estate companies, XHB is probably not a good
fit.
XHB has just 29.2% of its asset base in homebuilding while the
rest is spread across building products, home furnishing retail,
home improvement retail and household appliances.
Apart from the core housing market, there are other sectors
closely allied to it. The positive sentiment for housing has also
influenced these related sectors as evidenced by the performance of
XHB in 2012.
The fund does well to minimize company-specific risk thanks to
its equal weighting. It invests 36.6% of its asset base in the top
ten holdings. Among individual holdings, Mohawk Industries, Tempur
Pedic and D R Horton Inc. form the top line of the fund with
respective shares of 3.82%, 3.81%, and 3.75%.
The fund delivered a return of 9.1% in the year-to-date period
while the 2012 gain was a whopping 57.15% -- a testimony to the
housing market recovery.
Bottom Line
Both of these ETFs currently are ranked two or better (ITB is a
1 and XHB is a 2), so we think they are buys in this environment.
Yes, they have run up quite a bit in the past few months, but these
solid trends look likely to continue, suggesting that more gains
could be ahead for these two ETFs.
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ISHARS-DJ HO CO (ITB): ETF Research Reports
SPDR-SP HOMEBLD (XHB): ETF Research Reports
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