By Kate Gibson
As stock investors on Monday braced for first-quarter earnings,
analyst said the market reaction to the reports could well depend
on whether expectations have been set low enough.
"We will see in about 10 days whether the 'less worse' economic
viewpoint held by many investors and analysts extends to the first
quarter earnings and the outlook offered by American CEOs of
companies hit hard by the current recession," said Frederick
Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson and Co.
"We have been looking for things to get 'less bad' -- however
our reading of the recent data does not yet support that view,
although stock investors have taken it to heart that the bottom is
now in and the only decision left is not to buy, but how much. The
markets will get another test this week, as expectedly poor
earnings will be reported. Maybe they'll be 'less bad' too," said
Paul Nolte, director of investments, Hinsdale Associates.
Dow component and aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. (AA) reports its
first-quarter results on Tuesday, the unofficial start of the
earnings season.
Ahead of Alcoa's results, commercial glass provider Apogee
Enterprises Inc. (APOG) and blood bank automator Immucor Inc.
(BLUDE) are both scheduled to release earnings after Monday's
close.
"Earnings expectations for most companies have been dramatically
lowered over the last 90 days, a fact recognized in the drop in
stock prices over the same period. The question is whether analysts
have lowered expectations enough and whether companies meet or top
the lowered performance bar," Dickson said.
In the near term, Dickson expects market pullbacks as likely to
be shallow, "unless we hit a new barrier in the form of
much-worse-than-expected first quarter earnings, current quarter
earnings, or revenue guidance for bellwether companies."
On Monday, stocks declined for the first day in five sessions
amid renewed worries about large banks, and after reports that
International Business Machines Corp.'s (IBM) proposed deal for Sun
Microsystems Inc. (JAVA) had fallen through.
Information technology led sector declines as the Dow Jones
Industrial Average (DJI) fell 101.87 points, or 1.3%, to 7,915.72.
The S&P 500 (SPX) declined 13.3 points, or 1.5%, to 829.2,
while the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite shed 33.17 points, or
2.1%, to 1,588.7.