Natural Gas ETFs Slide on Bearish Storage Report - ETF News And Commentary
May 16 2013 - 10:04AM
Zacks
Natural gas had managed to resist the commodity trend to start
2013, as the product gained significantly to begin the year.
However, the good days now seem to be over for natural gas
investors, as May has been a horrendous month for the
commodity.
This near-term bearish trend continued with the latest EIA
storage report in which supply additions came in above
expectations. The consensus called for an increase of 95 billion
cubic feet (bcf), but investors saw 99 bcf injected instead (read
the Comprehensive Guide to Natural Gas ETFs).
This addition also compared unfavorably with recent trends for
this week in the year, as the five year average had a rise of just
69bcf. However, the total stocks of natural gas—which stood at
1.964 trillion cubic feet—were still below the five year trend for
this time in the year, though traders focused in on the week’s
above estimate injection, and calls for mild weather in the days
ahead.
As a result, prices of front month natural gas futures
experienced another bout of weakness in Thursday trading, falling
below the key $4 mark. In total, prices fell about 3.5% after the
report was released, signaling to many that more rough trading was
ahead for the commodity.
Natural Gas ETF Impact
Obviously, this bearish report had a big impact on natural gas
ETFs in the trading session. The most popular fund, the
United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) was down about
3.8% on the session on volume that was above average (read Forget
UNG: Try These Natural Gas ETFs Instead).
The more spread out along the futures curve version, the
United States 12 Month Natural Gas ETF (UNL) did a
bit better on the day, losing just 2.7% in comparison. However, the
fund’s volume is much lighter than UNG, though it also saw a burst
in trading thanks to the EIA report.
Meanwhile in the leveraged ETF market, the 2x fund
(BOIL) was down about 7.3% while the 3x product
UGAZ, lost a bit over 11% in the session.
Unsurprisingly, the inverse natural gas market did quite well on
the news today, with the -2x KOLD adding about
7.5% and DGAZ jumping higher by just over 11%.
Natural Gas ETF Outlook
Given the bearish report and the forecast for more mild weather,
we could see a continued fall in the natural gas ETF market. This
is especially true considering the magnitude of the supply
injections as of late, and the trend that is building for this
metric (read 3 Energy ETFs for America’s Production Boom).
So, investors may want to pause or cash in a bet on natural gas
ETFs at this time, as the commodity is definitely facing some
strong headwinds. Instead, any of the short natural gas ETF plays
could be better options for now, particularly given the supply
demand imbalance, and the long history of natural gas weakness in
the ETF world.
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PPO-ULT DJ-U NG (BOIL): ETF Research Reports
VEL-3X INV NG (DGAZ): ETF Research Reports
PRO-ULS DJ-U NG (KOLD): ETF Research Reports
VEL-3X LNG NG (UGAZ): ETF Research Reports
US-NATRL GAS FD (UNG): ETF Research Reports
US-12M NATL GAS (UNL): ETF Research Reports
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