ISM Mfg Index Falls to 49.5 - Real Time Insight
December 03 2012 - 5:16AM
Zacks
The Institute for Supply
Management’s factory index decreased to 49.5 last month from 51.7
in October. This is the lowest reading since July 2009 and
quite a surprise to most experts.
Economists projected the
index would fall a bit to 51.4, according to the median forecast in
a Bloomberg survey. And as you know, a reading of 50 marks
the dividing line between expansion and
contraction.
Estimates for the ISM
index from the 83 economists surveyed ranged from 49 to 53.5. The
gauge averaged 55.2 in 2011 and 57.3 a year
earlier.
Here's more detailed
breakdown from Bloomberg.com...
"The ISM’s index of U.S.
new orders dropped to a three-month low of 50.3 in November from
54.2. The production increased to 53.7 last month from 52.4 in
October. The gauge of export orders dropped to 47 from 48. The
employment index decreased to 48.4, the lowest since September
2009, from 52.1 the prior month."
BUT, hold your finger
off that sell button just yet...
In a completely opposite
picture, the PMI Mfg Index surprised to the upside. From
Bloomberg...
"November was a
solid month for the nation's manufacturers based on the PMI index
from Markit Economics which shows a final reading of 52.8, up four
tenths from the flash reading and up a sharp 1.8 points from
October. Very encouraging is a good description for the
details which show accelerating monthly growth for new orders and
for output. New exports orders show their first monthly increase
since May. Backlog orders are in the plus column for the first
since August. Employment growth is steady and respectable. In a
mixed signal, inventories continue to move lower in what hints that
businesses may have doubts over the strength of future
demand."
What does this mixed bag
all mean?
Is it more about Super
Storm Sandy, or more about business caution as we speed toward the
Congressional Canyon?
Are the economy and the
markets about to pull a Wile E. Coyote?
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