By Joe Light and Matt Jarzemsky
Tech stocks aren't sunk. But the ship has sprung a leak. Should
you bail out?
After climbing 244% from its 2009 low through March 5, the
Nasdaq Composite Index has dropped 8.2%, tumbling 3.1% on Thursday
alone--its biggest one-day drop since November 2011. Certain slices
of the tech market look more perilous.
Biotech, for example. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology
exchange-traded fund has fallen 20% since March 5. Highflying
social-media companies Facebook and Twitter have sunk 18% and 26%,
respectively, since then.
Speculating on a single sector, especially a volatile one such
as technology, is risky, but if you want to try anyway, you should
only use a small slice of your portfolio, say 5%, says Brad Barber,
a finance professor at the University of California, Davis.
With that caveat in mind, here is the state of the technology
sector now, and some ways investors can profit in it:
Initial Public Offerings
Remember eToys?
The online toy retailer went public in May 1999 at $20 a share,
and the stock price nearly quadrupled on its first day. At the end
of eToys' first day of trading, investors valued the company at
$7.7 billion, a third more than Toys "R" Us.
EToys played up the convenience of shopping online rather than
driving to a store. Instead of having to "circle [the] parking lot
four times," its initial public offering prospectus said, customers
merely had to turn on the computer.
EToys was right--online retailing expanded rapidly, often at the
expense of brick-and-mortar stores. But the company went bankrupt
in 2001 after the company's costs spiraled out of control and sales
growth was slower than anticipated.
That is the challenge facing investors in some flashy
biotechnology and social media IPOs, says Aswath Damodaran, a
finance professor and valuation expert at New York University. Even
though companies might get the "macro" story of their market right,
it is nearly impossible to tell who is going to be the winner that
takes that prize.
"Investors think about how big the diabetes drug market is, see
a company offering a diabetes drug, and say, 'Let me make a bet on
this,'" he says. "There are going to be a couple winners. But no
one knows who."
By some measures, this year's IPOs are even more speculative
than usual, says University of Florida professor Jay Ritter, who
researches the IPO market. Among the 46 tech and biotech IPOs that
he has tracked this year, only four companies have made a profit in
the past 12 months, he says.
Historically, Mr. Ritter's research has shown that the average
company that debuts with a market value of at least $50 million
does no better or worse than the overall market. The average
company that is smaller than $50 million underperforms the
market.
"Other patterns come and go, but this pattern has held true in
the 1980s, 1990s, and the last decade," he says.
So why bother setting aside money for IPOs at all? Picking a
winner might feel like a good idea, but without knowing them in
advance, investors are better off sticking with a broad market
index fund. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, for example, costs
0.05%, or $5 per $10,000 invested, and has about 15% of its
portfolio in tech stocks. The Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF costs
0.04% and has about 18% of its portfolio in tech stocks.
If you do that, you have to be prepared to let go of big gains
when specific sectors rally, but you also will avoid big losses
when they slump.
Biotechnology Stocks
The biotech sector ranges from established companies--there are
seven in the S&P 500, including Amgen and Gilead Sciences--to
young firms that haven't yet begun testing their products in
clinical trials, let alone trying to sell them. Biotech firms
usually are grouped with health-care companies, rather than tech
firms.
The sector attracted investor interest in 2013, thanks to
breakout sales of treatments for cancer, hepatitis C and a host of
rare diseases, as well as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's
increased willingness to give new drugs a green light, money
managers say. Share prices of many biotech firms rose sharply.
Given the recent reversal in the sector, it appears investors
got a little too enthusiastic during the earlier part of this year.
The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index closed at a record high on Feb. 25,
capping an 87% gain over the prior 12 months. Since then, the index
is down 21%.
Individual investors may want to steer clear of smaller,
early-stage drug developers, unless they understand "exactly how
much risk they're taking," says Ziad Bakri, a health-care analyst
at mutual-fund firm T. Rowe Price Group. "If you're not trained in
science and medicine, you should understand that this is very risky
and there's a real asymmetry of information here."
If you have the wherewithal and risk tolerance, he says, you
could consider making a handful of small bets on drug developers
working on a potential blockbuster, keeping in mind that some of
these investments will likely fail.
Shares of larger, profitable biotech companies, by comparison,
can be less volatile. Amgen, for example, has tumbled 9.9% in the
past month, while Gilead is down 17%. Intercept Pharmaceuticals, a
smaller peer in the sector, is down 39%.
Still, larger biotech companies tend to see greater price swings
than shares in major industrial or consumer-staples firms. For
investors interested in larger biotech companies, Mr. Bakri
recommends looking at rare-disease drug makers Alexion
Pharmaceuticals and Incyte, both of which he says have strong
management teams and a good chance their drugs will be approved to
treat additional diseases, adding to revenues.
Like many high-growth companies, Alexion isn't cheap, at 31
times analysts' estimated earnings for this year, according to
FactSet. But its sales grew by 37% last year. Given how quickly
some larger biotech companies like Alexion are expanding, "the
valuations don't seem crazy," Mr. Bakri says.
Among the top biotech funds, as ranked by three-year returns, is
the Fidelity Select Biotechnology Portfolio, according to
investment research firm Morningstar. The Fidelity fund has annual
expenses of 0.81%.
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF has annual expenses of
0.48%. Both the Fidelity fund and the iShares fund have included
Amgen, Gilead and Alexion among their top five holdings in recent
months.
Consumer Internet Stocks
Shares of social-media and consumer-focused Internet companies
have been some of the hardest hit in the recent selloff. The
episode serves as a reminder that richly valued stocks can be some
of the most vulnerable to a pullback, money managers say.
Some of these businesses, such as microblog service Twitter or
entertainment website Pandora Media, have yet to post an annual
profit. Meanwhile, investors have been paying higher prices
relative to profits for those companies that are generating
earnings, such as entertainment company Netflix, than in many other
corners of the market, leaving them vulnerable to a sharp fall when
sentiment turned.
But the fast revenue growth for many of these companies, coupled
with investor enthusiasm that they will leverage the power of the
Web to shake up established industries, led bulls to pile in.
"With the big run-up that we had in 2013 and through the middle
of the first quarter, you had companies that overshot their
valuations in the near term," says Daniel Cole, who oversees about
$550 million as a senior portfolio manager at Manulife Asset
Management.
Investors should keep in mind that these rich valuations imply
that much of the value of these companies lie in their future
growth prospects, he says. When you are looking years down the
road, even a small slowdown in the company's business or shift in
investor sentiment can have a large impact on the stock.
Mr. Cole tries to identify companies that have a competitive
lead and better business model than their competitors. For example,
he says, Pandora is well-positioned to benefit from a shift from
traditional to digital radio.
Investors in growth stocks must keep in mind that not all
companies will succeed, Mr. Cole says. Therefore, picking out
"great business models and great industry positioning is more
important than what happens with the stock in the near term," he
says.
He says it generally pays to favor companies that dominate their
niche or have a first-mover advantage against their rivals, as the
Internet tends to create a winner-take-all competitive dynamic.
Other growth investors also stress the importance of watching
whether revenue is accelerating or slowing from quarter to quarter.
One warning sign: if a company is spending more on sales and
marketing from quarter to quarter to keep growing.
The PowerShares Nasdaq Internet Portfolio ETF includes among its
largest holdings shares in major firms that have established deep
relationships with consumers on the Internet, including eBay,
Amazon.com, Priceline Group and Facebook, according to Morningstar.
The fund charges annual expenses of 0.60%.
Older Tech Stocks
With the spotlight on consumer-technology companies nowadays, it
is easy to forget that more-established companies such as hardware
and document-management company Xerox, networking-equipment company
Cisco Systems, chip maker Intel and search-engine giant Google
belong to the same sector.
But these are the exact stocks that will benefit the most if
tech's falter turns into a longer slump, says Pankaj Patel, a
quantitative strategist at ISI Group, a research firm in New
York.
That is because older tech stocks are some of the cheapest in
the market.
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As the tech sector took off in January and February, the
priciest decile of tech stocks--as measured by the price/earnings
ratio, or the price divided by earnings per share, and other
valuation yardsticks--beat the cheapest decile by more than four
percentage points, according to ISI. But in March, the cheapest
stocks trounced the most expensive stocks by eight points.
Mr. Patel says he isn't yet sure if the reversal will last and
that the past month might just have been a blip. But if cheap tech
stocks continue to beat others through April, he says he will tell
clients to shift more money to old tech companies.
Apple, for example, has a price/earnings ratio of 12.9, based on
the past 12 months of earnings, according to FactSet. Intel has a
P/E of 13.9 and Microsoft has a P/E of 14.5, versus a P/E of 16.3
for the S&P 500.
To avoid taking a risk on an individual stock, investors can
turn to a broad tech-sector ETF, such as the Technology Select
Sector SPDR Fund, which charges annual fees of 0.16%. Because
long-standing tech companies tend to be larger than the upstarts,
the ETFs are already tilted toward cheap, big companies.
For example, the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF has a P/E of
16.8, slightly above that of the S&P 500.
What's more, many mature tech companies have billions in cash on
their balance sheet, which makes them look even cheaper, NYU's Mr.
Damodaran says.
Do such companies' growth prospects look boring when set next to
say, GrubHub, the online food-ordering-service company, and
mobile-game maker King Digital Entertainment? Sure. But their
earnings also are much more certain to persist.
Write to Joe Light at joe.light@wsj.com and Matt Jarzemsky at
matthew.jarzemsky@wsj.com
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