"Pink Slime" Controversy Could Be Bullish For Livestock ETFs - ETF News And Commentary
March 28 2012 - 3:17AM
Zacks
Commodity investing has been pretty rocky so far this year as
agricultural commodities have seen a significant rough patch in
2012. Trading has been especially volatile in the livestock market
as new worries by the general public have thrown a wrench into the
traditional supply/demand balance (read Three Commodity ETFs That
Have Not Surged).
This has largely been due to spiking consumer rage over a
ground-beef filler product that has popularly been referred to as
‘pink slime’. The additive generally consists of scraps from
butchered cattle that have the fat removed and are then treated
with ammonium hydroxide.
The unpleasant looking substance—while deemed safe by the
Department of Agriculture—has been a popular product that has been
mixed in with ground beef in order to make the end result leaner.
However, while the element has been in beef for quite some time,
the displeasure with this technique has begun to build, thanks to
social media and TV highlights of the practice.
This has forced many major supermarket chains to announce that
they would get rid of the additive in their products in
the near future in order to avoid further backlash from
consumers. This also appears to be a more permanent issue as a
major producer of the substance, Beef Products Inc., announced that
it would suspend production of the product at three plants across
the Midwest and Texas.
While beef demand could be hurt in the short-term as people shy
away from beef that still contains the substance, it could have
longer term implications for the market as well. This is because
after the issue fades from public memory there will still be a
problem over how to make up the extra supply that the ‘pink slime’
took in the market. In fact, according to Cargill, close to 850
million pounds of the additive are used each year which is roughly
the equivalent of nearly 1.5 million head of cattle (see Is USCI
The Best Commodity ETF?).
While this might not sound like much given that the U.S. herd is
about 90 million head strong, investors should remember that the
U.S. exports roughly 7 million heads of cattle a year and that the
overall herd size has been slowly shrinking over the years. Given
this, it isn’t unreasonable to expect that supplies will continue
to be tight and that beef prices could rise off of their ‘pink
slime’ lows.
Thanks to this, it could be the time to invest in livestock ETFs
as they bounce higher following this issue. Beef prices could rise
as supplies become tighter while pork prices could also rise as
hogs become a more popular substitute for beef consumption in the
near term. For investors who are intrigued by this trend, there are
three livestock ETFs which could offer decent exposure to the
market:
Currently, all three are ETNs while two are iPath products;
the Dow Jones-UBS Livestock Total Return ETN (COW)
and the Pure Beta Livestock ETN (LSTK). Both
products charge investors 75 basis points a year in fees and have a
roughly two to one favoring for cattle contracts over lean
hogs.
Beyond these choices, investors also have a similar product from
ETRACS, the CMCI Livestock Total Return ETN (UBC).
This note has slightly less in cattle (roughly 60%) giving more to
lean hogs in the process. Additionally, investors should note that
the product charges just 65 basis points in fees although its
volume is quite low, coming in below 2,500 shares a day in many
cases (also read Is It Time To Buy The Livestock ETFs?).
In terms of performance, all three have lost marginally so far
this year with UBC falling about 3.3%, while COW and LSTK have
declined by 1.2% and 1.9%, respectively. Over the last month, as
more worries over beef demand have surfaced, losses have been more
pronounced with all three losing at least 3.2% in the time period
(read USCF Launches Agricultural Commodity ETF).
Over the past few days, however, it appears as though prices may
have bottomed out for these notes, as many have started to trend
higher in the past few sessions. Given this, and the already tight
beef market, investors could consider buying these ETNs as a way to
benefit from the pink slime controversy, assuming that this issue
curtails beef supply without hurting demand too much in the longer
term.
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