While the economy is still weak, it is undoubtedly better than
it has been in quite some time. Employment levels are slowly
rising, Europe appears to have its debt situation temporarily under
control, and home prices recently posted a year-over-year gain for
the first time in a year and a half, further adding to general
consumer optimism.
Thanks to this, broad stock markets have been rising steadily
this year pushing indexes like the S&P 500 sharply higher and
to gains that usually take at least a year to accumulate. However,
while some sensitive market segments have roared higher in this
environment, one sector that has failed to rise as well has been
the transports (read Three Construction ETFs For An Economic
Recovery).
This segment has gained so far this year, but its return is
roughly half of what an investor would have experienced in a broad
market ETF like SPY during the same time period. In fact, during
early March, it appeared as though the transports were poised to
fall back into the red on the year before finally gaining some
momentum over the next few weeks.
This underperformance is troubling given that many investors
feel as though transports can act as a barometer of the broad
market. After all, when transports are surging it generally means
that more goods are being moved around, people have money to
travel, and business activity is up in aggregate.
Since the economy clearly is doing better as of late—albeit
slightly—it is puzzling that transports have not rallied along with
the broad market too. While this could signal to some investors
that the market rally is due for a pause, it could also mean that
transports are an intriguing buy in this environment (read Timber
ETFs To Benefit From Housing Recovery).
This seems especially true for two reasons, both of which
suggest that transports could move higher in the coming days.
First, after nearly hitting a 2012 low on March sixth, transports
have been on a tear, beating out broad markets in the time frame.
Second, and most importantly, the recent rally has been built more
on data than on hope.
Home sales are approaching a double digit gain in volume when
compared to the previous year, core CPI remains moderate while long
term Treasury bond demand remains very strong. Additionally,
factory sales are coming in better than expected and Fed surveys
are coming in ahead of expectations, suggesting that there is
rising demand for the movement of goods across many sectors of the
economy (see Three ETFs With Incredible Diversification).
In light of this, it may be the time to make an allocation to
the broad sector in hopes that the recent trend in the space will
continue and that the highly sensitive sector will keep on
displaying strong momentum. To accomplish this task in basket form,
investors should look to either of the transport ETFs that we have
highlighted below.
While they have a similar focus, there are actually some key
differences that investors should be aware of before making a
choice in this space. There are several top holdings similarities,
but there are marked differences between the two funds and their
expense ratios, number of holdings, and volumes, factors that are
crucial to any investor seeking to make a play on this overlooked
corner of the market:
iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Fund
(IYT)
The most popular ETF in the space is the nearly nine year old
IYT from iShares. The fund tracks the Dow Jones Transportation
Average Index which is a benchmark containing roughly 21
securities. Volume and AUM are both impressive, ensuring that the
product has tight bid ask spreads for virtually all investors.
Despite this, the product does have a relatively high expense
ratio, coming in at 47 basis points a year (see Are Telecom ETFs In
Trouble?).
The ETF is heavily exposed to the railroad and trucking industry
as this segment makes up nearly half of the portfolio. Air freight
and logistics comes in second, accounting for roughly 30% of
exposure while airlines come in third at about 12% of the total. In
terms of market capitalization levels, large caps make up about
half the fund while mid and small caps account for the rest.
Top holdings include railroad operator Union Pacific
(UNP) at roughly 11.8% of assets while two logistic
firms—FedEx (FDX) and United Parcel
Service (UPS)—take the next two spots making up nearly 18%
of the total assets between them. In terms of the rest of the top
ten, there is one more logistics firm, a marine company and the
rest are in the railroad & trucking segments.
SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN)
The newcomer in the space, XTN, debuted a little over a year
ago, tracking the S&P Transportation Select Industry Index.
With this focus, the fund holds roughly 40 securities in its basket
charging investors just 35 basis points in fees. However, thanks to
the youth of the fund, the volume hasn’t followed; the ETF sees
volume of just under 6,000 shares a day (read Five Cheaper ETFs You
Probably Overlooked).
This fund is also heavily exposed to railroads and trucking as
they make up roughly 53% of the total. Beyond this, close to 20% of
the total goes to both airlines and logistic companies, which
pretty much round out the entire fund except for a 6% allocation to
marine firms. The real difference appears to be in terms of market
cap levels as this product is heavily focused on small and mid cap
securities; large caps only account for 20% of the fund’s
total.
In terms of individual holdings, a vastly different picture
results for investors. The product doesn’t put more than 3.5% into
any one security, a sharp contrast from its iShares counterpart.
Additionally, investors should note that XTN includes a number of
car rental companies, which are excluded entirely from IYT.
With this focus, the top holdings in XTN include US
Airways Group (LCC), Swift Transportation
(SWFT), and Con-Way Inc (CNW). This
results in a top ten holdings that has six railroad & trucking
firms, three airlines, and one logistic company, giving the product
just over one-third of its assets in this group.
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