OPEC Deal Keeps Global Oil Prices Buoyant
November 30 2016 - 11:00PM
Dow Jones News
Global oil prices continued to rise in early Asia trade on
Thursday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels.
The decision, which marks the group's first concerted effort to
slash output since 2008, upended many analysts' expectations and
sent prices soaring by more than 9% overnight.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures
for delivery in January recently traded at $49.47 a barrel, up
$0.03 in the Globex electronic session. February Brent crude on
London's ICE Futures exchange rose $0.05 to $51.89 a barrel, the
highest level in more than a month.
Asia-Pacific energy stocks rose following the production deal.
Woodside Petroleum Ltd. was 6% higher and Oil Search Ltd. rose
9.6%.
The OPEC cut represents about 1% of global production, which
will help to reduce a supply glut that has depressed prices for
more than two years. The promised cuts include significant
reductions by heavyweights including Saudi Arabia, the group's most
powerful member and de facto leader.
Analysts say the biggest question remains enforcement, as OPEC
has no authority to make its members to comply. OPEC members have a
record of cheating by producing beyond their allotted quotas.
"People are going to be watching closely if the group can now
actually live up their pledges," says Stuart Ive, a client manager
at OM Financial.
Under the pact, Saudi Arabia is expected to take the lion's
share of the cuts by slashing production by 486,000 barrels a day.
Iraq agreeing to curb output by 20,000 barrels a day. Meanwhile,
struggling producers such as Iran, Nigeria, and Libya were exempt
from the deal, as their production has been hampered by sanctions
and militant attacks.
The group is expected to reassess the effectiveness of the deal,
which will take effect in January, in six months.
"While we acknowledge that OPEC's track record of delivering on
production cuts has historically been poor, on a net basis we
expect this to tighten crude markets," said Scott Darling, the head
of Asia-Pacific oil and gas research at J.P. Morgan.
The implementation of the deal is expected to accelerate the
rebalance of supply and demand in the market, which will likely
shift to a 500,000-barrel deficit in the first half of next year,
Bernstein Research said. It also said the deficit could rise to
more than 1 million barrels a day by the second half of next
year.
Higher prices, however, are likely to cause more U.S. shale
producers to increase production.
The latest production data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration showed U.S. production increased by 9,000 barrels a
day to 8.7 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 25.
"There is a real risk that higher prices could reactivate more
dormant shale oil," said ANZ Research, which expects international
oil prices to hit strong resistance at around $60 a barrel in early
2017.
Moreover, a price increase of $10 to $15 a barrel may also blunt
the appetite of some oil consumers in Asia who beefed up
inventories recently by buying when prices were in the $40 range,
analysts say.
Another wild card is the cooperation of non-OPEC producers, who
are expected to decrease production by 600,000 barrels a day.
Russia said it would cut production by 300,000 barrels a day,
though it isn't clear how much of that will come from already
expected declines, Morgan Stanley said.
Write to Jenny W. Hsu at jenny.hsu@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 30, 2016 22:45 ET (03:45 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Oil Search (ASX:OSH)
Historical Stock Chart
From Dec 2024 to Jan 2025
Oil Search (ASX:OSH)
Historical Stock Chart
From Jan 2024 to Jan 2025