10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low
July 01 2016 - 9:50AM
Dow Jones News
Yields on U.S. government bonds fell to new lows on Friday, the
latest record in this year's rally in sovereign debt around the
world.
The bid yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to
1.385% during European morning trade, briefly breaking below its
previous intraday record of 1.389% hit on July 24, 2012, according
to Tradeweb. The yield closed at a record low of 1.404% that day.
Yields fall as bond prices rise.
The yield recently hit 1.422%, according to Tradeweb, still down
around 0.07 of a percentage point on the day.
Yields on U.K. government bonds also fell to fresh lows on
Friday.
Bond yields have fallen broadly this year, reflecting investors'
concerns about soft global growth and low inflation. Negative
interest rates in Japan and Europe, and central banks' purchases of
government bonds, have also pushed down yields.
The rally has intensified since Britain voted to leave the
European Union last week, heightening concerns about the global
economy and driving investors to safe assets like government
bonds.
Traders say lower global bond yields partly reflect growing
expectations that major central banks will need to take fresh
action to spur growth, and that the Federal Reserve may not be able
to raise interest rates this year. Rising rates tend to hurt the
value of outstanding bonds.
U.K. yields fell on Friday after Bank of England Governor Mark
Carney signaled that the central bank would need to cut interest
rates this summer following Britain's exit from the EU.
"The overarching reason is that monetary policy is still very,
very supportive for government bonds," said Seamus Mac Gorain, a
government bonds fund manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Mr. Mac Gorain said the BOE, Bank of Japan and the European
Central Bank will all ease policy this year, while the Federal
Reserve is now unlikely to raise interest rates. Mr. Mac Gorain has
bought up U.K and U.S. government bonds, adding the 10-year
Treasury yield could fall as low as 1.25%.
The yield on a two-year U.K. government bond dipped below zero
briefly in late European trading Thursday for the first time ever,
momentarily bringing the U.K. into the ever growing club of
countries with negative-yielding debt.
The global stock of negative-yielding bonds jumped by nearly $1
trillion to almost $11 trillion following the so-called Brexit
vote, according to a report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch
strategists published Wednesday.
All of Switzerland's government bonds, including its
longest-dated security maturing in 2064, now trade at a negative
yield.
That means that even with U.S. yields historically low they have
still tempted foreign investors, further pushing Treasury bond
yields lower.
The resilience of the U.S. bond market has wrong-footed many
interest-rate strategists and traders. Bond bears had predicted
that yields would reverse the declines as the Fed started to
normalize interest-rate policy and the U.S. economy recovered from
the financial crisis.
"The U.S. has been doing fine, but it's looking increasingly
isolated. In the meantime, the yields on offer in the U.S. look
appealing by comparison," said Charlie Diebel, head of interest
rates at Aviva Investors.
Write to Min Zeng at min.zeng@wsj.com and Christopher Whittall
at christopher.whittall@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 01, 2016 09:35 ET (13:35 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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