PDN Paladin Energy Ltd

Australian uranium exporters spearheaded a fall in Australian's stock market Monday after a devestating earthquake and tsunami last week hit Japan, Australia's second biggest trading partner behind China. Insurers and agricultural companies also fell, while steelmakers, oil refiners and clean energy producers were among a handful of gainers. The S&P/ASX 200 was down 1.2% at 4588.3 points around 0220 GMT after earlier hitting low of 4564.1.

THE LOSERS:

URANIUM PRODUCERS: Uranium stocks fell after serious problems at some of Japan's nuclear power plants threatened to quell enthusiasm to build more nuclear power plants around the world. Australia is the world's third largest uranium producer behind Kazakhstan and Canada, with most output generated at Energy Resources of Australia's (ERA.AU) Ranger mine and BHP Billiton's (BHP.AU) Olympic Dam mine. ERA shares tumble 9.3%, BHP is down 1.3%, and Paladin (PDN.AU), which produces yellow cake in Africa, plunges 14%. Extract Resources (EXT.AU) isn't producing any uranium yet and isn't likely to for years, but its shares still fell 8.3%, showing that the problems at Japan's nuclear power plants are stoking concerns for nuclear power's longer term viability.

INSURERS: QBE Insurance (QBE.AU) is down 0.9% after it estimated that net claims in its business arising from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami are worth around US$125 million. Southern Cross Equities director Charlie Aitken says Australian insurers are headed for broker downgrades as analysts start using higher reinsurance rates. "This large-scale disaster may well prove the straw that breaks the reinsurance camel's back...what's bad for reinsurers is worse for insurers, with reinsurance rates likely to go through the roof and crush margins," he says. Aitken expects global reinsurers to start rationing reinsurance. "Australian insurers could prove a value trap here and we urge tactical caution." Suncorp-Metway (SUN.AU) falls 2.0%, Insurance Australia Group (IAG.AU) falls 3.2%.

AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY: Gunns (GNS.AU), which exports woodchips to Asian pulp mills and counts Japanese mills as its biggest customers, fell 10%. Smaller agribusinesss Elders (ELD.AU), which exports livestock and manages hardwood plantations, is down 7.3%. Graincorp (GNC.AU) is down 1.4% after Japan's earthquake contributed to a sell-off in U.S. wheat futures. Japan was expected to import 5.2 million metric tons of wheat in the marketing year ending May 31, about 4% of total global imports, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, but trading executives said Sunday that shipments of several hundred thousand tons to ports in quake-hit northern Japan would likely be delayed.

BANKS: Australia's big four banks are all down. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ.AU), which has a high focus on expanding in the Asian region, is leading the fall, 1.5%. ATI Asset Management's head of research David Liu says there could be some marginal downside for the big lenders if the wholesale funding market is impacted. "The major reinsurer in the Japanese market is the government. That may reduce availability of credit in the market, meaning companies that source funding from Japan may have to look elsewhere," he says. "There is exposure for all four banks in terms of wholesale funding coming from the Japanese market." However he says the im may not be "material" because "probably less than 10% of their wholesale funding that comes from Japan."

THE WINNERS:

STEELMAKERS: Bluescope Steel (BSL.AU) is up 3.5% on expectations of reconstruction demand from Japan. Australia's steel industry, hard-pressed by competition from northeast Asia, is an obvious beneficiary if energy-intensive Japanese steel mills are shut down due to power rationing.

THERMAL COAL: Whitehaven Coal (WHC.AU) is up 1.6%. Coal hauler QR National (QRN.AU) is also up 1.6%. The shutdown of parts of Japan's nuclear power network is likely to make thermal coal one of the major beneficiaries as coal-burning stations are pressed into action.

OIL REFINING: Damage to Japanese oil refineries, including a massive explosion at one and fires at another, will help ease a regional gasoline supply overhang, pushing up margins for refiners like Caltex (CTX.AU). Shares in Australia's only listed oil refiner, 50%-owned by Chevron (CVX), are up 1.4%.

WATCHING BRIEF:

LNG: As Australia's biggest LNG exporters, Woodside Petrolem (WPL.AU) and BHP Billiton may benefit from greater demand from Japan, which has closed nuclear reactors damaged by the earthquake and tsunami and will need alternatives to fill the gap. Woodside shares, however, aren't star outperformers, falling 0.5%. It's unclear whether the operator of Australia's massive North West Shelf LNG project will be providing extra cargos to Japan, like Russia and South Korea have already offered to do. A Woodside spokeswoman says the company is assessing the situation and expects to update the market in the next day or so. While Japanese demand will rise, producers have to possess the production capacity to send extra LNG cargoes and the North West Shelf is currently running at record capacity. Most LNG is sold in long term contracts but a smaller amount is set aside for the spot market. Longer term, the tragic events in Japan could damp enthusiasm for nuclear power around the world, crucially in the U.S. and huge emerging markets like China and India, potentially assisting companies building new LNG terminals like Woodside, Santos (STO.AU) and Origin Energy (ORG.AU).

AIRLINES: While Qantas (QAN.AU), down 1.3%, doesn't fly to any airports damaged by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a spokesman says it's closely monitoring any impact on travel demand, which he says is still too early to quantify. Australia's biggest carrier says flights to Narita, Tokyo are currently operating to schedule, although due to damage to surrounding infrastructure it's recommended travellers allow extra time to travel to and from the airport. It's offering fee waivers to re-route travel for tickets to and from Narita bought on or before March 11. Australia's department of foreign affairs has warned people to reconsider traveling to Tokyo due to the risk of unpredictable disruptions to services like transport and power. Damage to Japanese refineries has lowered oil prices, which is at least a positive development for Qantas's jet fuel costs, although ongoing tensions in the Middle East still have them hovering over US$100 a barrel, prompting rival Virgin Blue (VBA.AU) to join Qantas by again hiking its fuel surcharges.

-By Rebecca Thurlow, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-2-8272-4679; rebecca.thurlow@dowjones.com

Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN)
Historical Stock Chart
From Oct 2024 to Nov 2024

Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN)
Historical Stock Chart
From Nov 2023 to Nov 2024