8 Reasons Why The Bitcoin Bear Phase Is Just A ‘Boogeyman’: Fund Manager
July 10 2024 - 4:00AM
NEWSBTC
While the Bitcoin price hasn’t reclaimed the crucial $60,000 level
to reenter the previous 4-month trading range, Ikigai Asset
Management Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Travis Kling thinks that
the current bearish phase is not more than a “boogeyman.” Via X,
Kling listed eight reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin. He stated:
“NFA. I’m wrong often. The current “bearish” backdrop seems easier
to look through and buy than most of the boogeymen we’ve had in
these markets over the last 6 years.” #1 Rapid Bitcoin Liquidations
By Germany Travis Kling observes that Germany has significantly
decreased its Bitcoin holdings, from 50,000 BTC to 22,000 BTC in
recent weeks. According to him, “Germany is speedrunning their
#Bitcoin dump.” He predicts the selling will soon cease,
suggesting, “By the time they get down to ~5k, the market will look
through it.” Kling implies that the market impact of Germany’s
Bitcoin liquidations is temporary and nearing its end. #2 Mt. Gox’s
Overestimated Market Impact Kling addressed the potential market
effects of the Mt. Gox repayments, characterizing the fear of
massive sell-offs as more speculative than based on the creditors’
likely actions. He stated, “Gox seems more FUD than actual mass
selling (just a guess but feels that way).” Related Reading:
Bitcoin to the Moon? 300% Growth Predicted By This Latest Crypto
Analysis He believes the creditors, many of whom are sophisticated
investors, are likely to sell their holdings methodically, e.g. via
TWAPs, thus reducing the impact on the market. Regarding the retail
investors, Kling asked a rhetorical question, “You’ve hung on for
decade when you could have sold ages ago. You’re just going to
aggressively dump now, three months after the halving?” #3 US
Government’s Bitcoin Strategy Regarding the US government’s Bitcoin
sales, Kling emphasized the measured approach taken so far. He
stated, “But they’ve been pretty measured with selling so far, so I
assume they’ll continue to be pretty measured.” While he admits
that the US government selling is the “hardest to get your head
around in terms of pace/method, and their stack is huge,” he claims
that the selling is unlikely to disrupt market stability. #4 Retail
Investment Boost Through ETFs Kling highlighted a surge in retail
investment in Bitcoin, particularly through ETFs, following recent
price dips. He remarked, “You have boomers slurping the dipperino
in the BTC ETFs Fri and Mon.” This trend indicates strong retail
investor interest in capitalizing on lower prices, suggesting a
bullish sentiment among this investor segment. #5 Ethereum ETF
Anticipation With the anticipation of US spot Ethereum ETFs, Kling
noted that the price of ETH remains only slightly below its level
prior to the emergence of ETF rumors, indicating minimal
speculative hype has been priced in. This observation suggests that
the market could react positively to the launches. #6 Interest Rate
Cuts Are Near Kling also discussed the potential for upcoming
Federal Reserve rate cuts, noting the market has priced in a
significant probability of such an event in September. He stated,
“If inflation/labor data is light this month, Powell will likely
tell the market that Sept is a live meeting at the 7/31 FOMC.
Nickileaks has already teased this.” Related Reading: If History
Repeats, Bitcoin Price Could Crash 33% Again: Here’s Why The fund
manager is referring to Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos who is
also known as “mouthpiece of the Fed”. A few days ago, Timiraos
wrote via X that the June jobs report will make the July Fed
meeting “more interesting” because. “For the first time all year—a
real debate over whether to cut at the *next* meeting (in
September),” he remarked. #7 The Potential Trump Pump Kling
speculated on the political landscape’s influence on Bitcoin,
particularly under a potential Trump presidency. Kling posed a
rhetorical question, “What else would you rather own than crypto
going into a Trump presidency?” with regards to the latest
pro-Bitcoin and crypto comments by the leading presidential
candidate in the polls. #8 Bitcoin And Nasdaq Re-Coupling Kling
pointed out the disparity between NASDAQ’s continual new all-time
highs and Bitcoin’s relative underperformance. He noted, “NASDAQ
keeps making new ATH after new ATH. Crypto has completely decoupled
to the downside.” He suggests that Bitcoin is undervalued relative
to the major market index and soon starts a catch-up rallye. “You
could argue BTC is lagging QQQ by 40% YTD,” Kling concluded. At
press time, BTC traded at $59,147. Featured image created with
DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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