Bitcoin Support Retests Reflect September 2023 Patterns: Is Another Bull Run Coming?
September 09 2024 - 6:06PM
NEWSBTC
Bitcoin has faced significant price fluctuations marked by a
notable crash on August 5 that saw its value dip to $49,000. This
was followed by a rebound to approximately $65,000, only to
experience another decline to around $52,000 last Friday.
Despite these challenges, the largest cryptocurrency by market
capitalization is undergoing crucial support retests, reminiscent
of the patterns observed in September 2023 before it soared to an
all-time high of $73,700 in March. Bitcoin May Hit New All-Time
Highs Crypto analyst Crypto Con highlighted this trend in a social
media post, emphasizing Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR).
According to Con, previous peaks have correlated with the 1.0 value
line on the SOPR chart, where the cryptocurrency typically finds a
bottom before entering a bull market phase. Related Reading:
Ethereum Forms Falling Wedge Pattern That Could Send Price To
$3,000 This cyclical behavior has been consistent around specific
months—October, August, and September—drawing parallels to the
recession predictions that have emerged recently, much like in
September 2023 and at the cycle bottom in November 2022 following
crypto exchange FTX’s implosion. The current indicators suggest
that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a significant price uptick,
potentially surpassing its previous all-time highs. This bullish
sentiment is bolstered by historical data that show Bitcoin’s
propensity to break through past peaks, as seen in the chart above.
Is September A ‘Fake-Breakdown Month’? In a more granular analysis
of short-term price action, fellow analyst Rekt Capital pointed out
that Bitcoin’s weekly close above $53,250 is crucial for
maintaining the support level within the bargain-buying range of
$52,000 to $55,000. This range forms beneath a
downward-trending channel spotted by the analyst at $56,500 on
Bitcoin’s weekly chart. Rekt emphasized that reclaiming $55,881 as
support would be essential for Bitcoin to build momentum and
attempt a recovery within the channel. Related Reading: Dogecoin To
$0.15: Analyst Explains What Could Kick Off A Fresh Rally
Furthermore, Rekt raised an interesting hypothesis about September
potentially being a “fake-breakdown month.” Historical data
indicate that September typically sees an average monthly return of
-5%, while October averages 22.90%. This pattern suggests
that any support that the Bitcoin price appears to have lost during
the past month could be swiftly reclaimed, especially as the
cryptocurrency currently trades around $56,600. Should October
follow its historical trend, a 22.90% increase would position
Bitcoin below its all-time high at approximately $68,780. At the
time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market records a
4% increase in the 24-hour time frame, resulting in its price
regaining the $56,600 mark. However, over the last 30 days, BTC has
recorded losses of over 7%. Featured image from DALL-E, chart
from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD)
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From Oct 2024 to Nov 2024
Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD)
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From Nov 2023 to Nov 2024