The $86,500 Bitcoin Question: Will The Halving Spark A Price Surge This April?
April 16 2024 - 9:00PM
NEWSBTC
The cryptocurrency market has undergone a substantial downturn,
with many of the top 100 cryptocurrencies experiencing sharp price
drops. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, hit a low of $61,600 on
Tuesday. However, industry experts suggest a potential
rebound to higher highs may be on the horizon as the highly
anticipated Halving event draws near. Adrian Zduńczyk, a
crypto trader and technical analyst, provides valuable insights
into the market dynamics, highlighting key factors such as bull
market indicators, ETFs, and the imminent Halving event. Mixed
Signals For BTC According to Zduńczyk’s analysis, the market
exhibits bullish signs, with the 200-week and 50-week moving
averages (MAs) at $33,700 and $39,900, respectively.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio is 0.55, indicating a
favorable trading environment. Additionally, the 7-week correlation
with the S&P 500 (SPX) remains firm at 0.71. Related
Reading: Elon Musk Latest Tweet: How Much Did Dogecoin Gain From It
Today? In terms of daily trends, Zduńczyk notes that Bitcoin is
currently in a choppy range between $59,000 and $74,000, with the
200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising at $46,600 and the
200-day Bitcoin Production Cost (BPRO) rising at $57,700.
However, the analyst notes that the medium-term momentum is
declining, and the 50-day Average True Range (ATR) volatility has
increased to $3270. This suggests that Bitcoin’s overall price
trend is losing strength or momentum in the medium-term timeframe.
Bitcoin Aims For $86,500 Zduńczyk highlights the market sentiment.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 65, indicating a state of greed
among market participants. The analyst notes that the current phase
of the market cycle is characterized by belief. Moreover,
miners are still profitable at prices above $41,800, and as mining
difficulty rises post-Halving, a price spike is
expected. Notably, previous Halving events have triggered
substantial price rallies, with Bitcoin experiencing significant
gains of 90X, 30X, and 7X. Importantly, Bitcoin has never returned
to Halving prices after these rallies. Related Reading: Arkham
Releases Top 5 Crypto Rich List – You Won’t Believe How Much Is
Inaccessible Examining seasonality trends, the monthly opening
price for April stands at $71,000, suggesting a positive outlook
for the month. The average gain for April is estimated at 21.95%,
implying an end-of-month target of $86,500, according to
Zduńczyk. Moreover, the period from April 16 to 30 has
historically seen average gains of 14.69%, further reinforcing
positive expectations and further price gains for BTC during the
upcoming weeks. According to Zduńczyk, this timeframe could attract
investors seeking to buy the dip. Despite the overall
positive outlook, BTC is trading at $62,600, reflecting a
consistent decline over the past month. In the last 30 days, BTC
has experienced a 9% drop from its mid-March all-time high of
$73,700. Moreover, in its quest for new highs and surpassing the
$80,000 threshold, BTC has encountered a significant obstacle at
the $70,000 level. Despite surpassing its all-time high, BTC has
struggled to consolidate above this level for over a week.
Nonetheless, as emphasized by Zduńczyk, the potential synergy
between the success of the ETF market in the United States and the
upcoming Halving event may hold the key to revitalizing BTC’s price
trajectory. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from
TradingView.com
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