Bitcoin Mimics Textbook Market Sentiment Cycle, What Happens When Confidence Returns?
April 13 2022 - 2:07PM
NEWSBTC
Markets are cyclical and go through alternating periods of positive
and negative sentiment, with price action following the tone across
the market. Although these changes appear to be difficult to
predict, Bitcoin price is currently following a textbook market
sentiment cycle chart from the book The Nature of Risk. If what
follows in the book continues across the cryptocurrency market, a
major trend change is due. Take a closer look at the market
sentiment cycle chart by Justin Mamis. Is Bitcoin Following A
Textbook Market Sentiment Cycle? Markets tend to move in the same
way. This is why certain technical analysis chart patterns can
yield accurate results with an increased probability. When zoomed
out, even market cycles tend to advance in the same five-wave
structure, according to Elliott Wave Theory. Those who dive deepest
into technical analysis become convinced of its power to not only
predict market behavior, but human behavior as well. Related
Reading | Bitcoin Weekly Momentum Flips Bullish For First Time In
2022 Ralph Nelson Elliott who came up with the theory also wrote a
book on the secret of the universe he referred to as “nature’s
law.” Another author with plenty of stock market experience, Justin
Mamis, also recognized these ties and penned the book The Nature of
Risk: Stock Market Survival & the Meaning of Life. The market
sentiment cycle chart below can be found within its pages. Bitcoin
versus Justin Mamis' market sentiment cycle chart | Source: BTCUSD
on TradingView.com All About Justin Mamis And Market Sentiment
Cycles Juxtaposed next to the Bitcoin line chart, is the same chart
presented by Justin Mamis that highlights the many phases and
emotions felt during a market sentiment cycle. At the height of
enthusiasm, buying the dip failing to be effective was a sign a
trend change was due. Below the highest support lines breaking down
caused the market to enter a stage of disbelief. Disbelief turns
into panic, and as the asset bottoms out, the market becomes
discouraged at the lack of movement. Related Reading | This Bitcoin
“Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead At aversion,
investors even feel a strong sense of dislike toward the asset and
might even want to see new lows as a result. It is at this point
when confidence begins to return and bearish traders are left in
denial. Justin Mamis is the former Assistant Director of the NYSE
Floor Department, former Senior Vice President and Chief Market
Technician at Hancock, and appeared frequently in Barron’s and The
Wall Street Journal. In his own words, Mamis said in a newsletter:
A cycle begins with stocks climbing “a wall of worry,” and ends
when there is no worry anymore. Even after the rise tops out,
investors continue to believe that they should buy the
dips…Unwillingness to believe in that change marks the first phase
down: “It’s just another buying opportunity.” The second,
realistic, phase down is the passage from bullish to bearish
sentiment…Selling begins to make sense. It culminates with the
third phase: investors, in disgust,…dump right near the eventual
low in the conviction that the bad news is never going to stop…
Don’t believe the chart represents what could happen in Bitcoin?
Well, then do the conditions in sentiment follow what Mamis told
investors? Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the
TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and
technical analysis education. Please note: Content
is educational and should not be considered investment
advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from
TradingView.com
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