Hard To Be “Too Scared Of Bitcoin Price Action,” Says Analyst. Here’s Why
June 19 2024 - 12:00AM
NEWSBTC
Bitcoin has been having a bad time recently, but this analyst isn’t
too worried about it, based on the recent trend in an on-chain
indicator. Bitcoin Unrealized Loss Has Been At Low Levels Recently
In a new post on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate talked about how the
latest price action of the cryptocurrency isn’t too scary when
considering the trend in the Unrealized Loss. The “Unrealized Loss”
here refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the total
loss that addresses across the Bitcoin network are holding right
now. This metric works by going through the transaction history of
each coin in circulation to see what price it was last moved at.
Assuming that this latest transaction was the last point at which
the coin changed hands, the price at its time would reflect its
current cost basis. Related Reading: XRP, Dogecoin, & Shiba Inu
All See Negative Sentiment: Signal To Buy? If this cost basis is
higher than the current spot price of the cryptocurrency for any
coin, then that particular coin can be considered to hold a net
unrealized loss currently. The Unrealized Loss subtracts the two
values to calculate the magnitude of loss for every coin and then
sums them up. Naturally, coins of the opposite type contribute
towards the “Unrealized Profit” metric instead. In the context of
the current discussion, the Unrealized Loss itself isn’t of
interest, but rather a normalized form called the Relative
Unrealized Loss. This metric divides the Unrealized Loss by the
asset’s market cap. Below is a chart showing this Bitcoin
indicator’s trend over the past decade or so. As is visible in the
graph, the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss peaked during the
November 2022 bear market lows and has since been heading down.
Recently, the metric’s value has been close to zero, implying the
losses in the market have only been equal to a negligible
percentage of the market cap. The reason behind these lows is the
recent price surge towards the new all-time high (ATH). The entire
supply becomes profitable during ATH breaks, so the Unrealized Loss
shrinks to zero. The indicator naturally also fell to zero earlier
in the year when the ATH took place, but the bearish price action
since then has meant that some of the investors have gone back into
losses. Interestingly, though, the indicator’s value has still been
extremely low, implying that while some buying has occurred at the
higher prices, it hasn’t been excessive. From the chart, it’s
visible that spikes followed bull market tops in the past in the
indicator, as only a small drop was enough to put all the
latecomers chasing hype into a loss. That hasn’t been the case in
the current cycle so far. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Crash To
$60,000 If This Support Gets Lost: CryptoQuant Head “It is hard for
me to be too scared of Bitcoin price action when unrealized losses
look like this,” notes Checkmate. The analyst also cautions that it
could deteriorate from here, but it hasn’t happened yet. BTC Price
Bitcoin has continued its recent bearish momentum during the past
day as its price has now slipped to $64,500. Featured image from
Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com
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