Has Bitcoin Reached Its Cycle Top? Insights From Leading Analysts
December 06 2024 - 10:30AM
NEWSBTC
Bitcoin experienced extreme volatility yesterday after reaching a
new all-time high of $104,088 on Wednesday. What followed was a
textbook “Darth Maul” candle on the daily chart, as BTC plummeted
from $103,550 to as low as $90,500 before stabilizing. While some
observers initially read the move as a harsh rejection at the
psychologically significant $100,000 level, leading analysts
suggest this could represent a routine market flush-out rather than
a cyclical peak. Could This Be The Bitcoin Cycle Top? Traders and
analysts on X present a unified narrative: the abrupt spike and
subsequent plunge were likely orchestrated by large players
capitalizing on high-leverage traders. Veteran trader IncomeSharks
(@IncomeSharks) stated, “Bitcoin – Classic Darth Maul. Correct me
if I’m wrong but I don’t think we’ve seen an asset top with that
kind of candle. Usually that’s the punish late longers, trap the
shorters, and send it higher candle.” Another crypto analyst known
as Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) added, “It’s just whales using the
‘rinse high leverage button.’ Before continuing whatever it was
meant to do. I would want to see the downside of that wick cleared,
but that could be it too.” Related Reading: Hut 8 Unveils $750
Million Initiative To Establish Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Tony “The
Bull” Severino, CMT, underscored the scale of these moves, noting:
“An $11K ‘Darth Maul’ on the Bitcoin daily chart. Stops on both
sides were run. Incredible intraday volatility in Bitcoin. Welcome
to what it’s like for BTC to be $100K. $10,000 moves in a day are
now a thing.” He followed up, “$100K Bitcoin is the new $10K,”
sharing comparative charts from the 2020–2021 bull run and drawing
parallels to the current price environment. Charles Edwards,
founder of Capriole Investments, reinforced this historical
context: “Bitcoin. Yes, this is normal.” Edwards posted a similar
chart, recalling the volatility when BTC was at $10,000 as well as
$1,000 in early 2017. Key indicators also remain suggestive of
further upside. According to Matthew Sigel, head of research at
VanEck, top signals are scarce at these levels. “Aside from funding
rates, which can stay elevated for some time, very few of our ‘top
signals’ indicators say the cycle is peaking. The path of least
resistance is still higher, in my opinion.” Related Reading:
Bitcoin On Track To Replace Gold In 10 Years, Trading Firm Predicts
Sigel referenced four key metrics: the MVRV Z-Score (still below
5), the Bitcoin Price SMA Multiplier (indicating room for further
growth), subdued Google Trends, and Crypto Market Dominance at a
mid-range level. These data points collectively imply that the
current cycle may not be approaching its apex. Macro analyst Alex
Krüger (@krugermacro) delivered another perspective: “Being asked
if that was the top so allow me to share my view. In my book the
first levered flush out of a strong bull run, particularly one
driven by strong fundamentals, does not mark the top.” He noted
that while the move was widely anticipated in general terms—albeit
not precisely timed—it does not alter the underlying strength of
Bitcoin’s rally. Krüger added that the sudden retail pivot to
older, “dino” altcoins might have signaled a local top for those
assets, but not necessarily for Bitcoin: “Nothing really has
changed imo. Would have liked to see funding also reset on alts.
Alas, we can’t get it all.” At press time, BTC traded at $98,146.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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