Analysts Say K+S Can Do Without Morton Salt If Outbid
March 23 2009 - 11:22AM
Dow Jones News
German fertilizer and salt supplier K+S AG (SDF.XE) may not win
its bid for Morton Salt now that the number of admirers has grown,
but analysts say that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
Like its competitors, K+S is flush with cash after a year of
record high fertilizer prices and is looking for bargains among
depressed sector stock prices. Chief Executive Norbert Steiner has
said repeatedly he is scouting out salt and fertilizer businesses
for acquisitions.
But in recent weeks, K+S has reportedly taken at least one
potential bid off the table while others remain just
speculation.
A bid for U.S.-based Compass Minerals International Inc. (CMP)
reportedly was shelved after its stock price soared on speculation
that K+S was preparing a $2.4 billion cash bid. While it had
publicly expressed interest in Compass, K+S declined to confirm
whether it had planned to make a formal bid.
There also has been market speculation about K+S making a play
for the fertilizer division of Dutch chemicals company Koninklijke
DSM NV (DSM.AE), but so far it seems only to be talk.
"There has been a lot of speculation about our company's
potential interest in various acquisition targets in North America
or the Netherlands," Steiner said earlier this month. "I would like
to reiterate that the company as a rule doesn't comment on market
rumors."
WestLB analyst Wolfgang Fickus said K+S is being prudent in not
paying excess multiples for something just because it can.
"They don't need to make acquisitions," Fickus said regarding
K+S. "The company can survive nicely as they are."
Fickus notes the price for Morton Salt is likely to rise now
that six companies are bidding on the Rohm & Haas Co. (ROH)
unit. While it has been put on the auction block for $1.5 billion,
Fickus believes the competition could drive bidding upward of $2.4
billion - a premium considering the unit's 2008 sales totaled $1.2
billion. One trader noted the German group's share price fell
Monday after it was revealed that K+S faces stiffer competition for
Morton, amid worries it might overpay for the target. K+S shares
had previously fallen sharply on reports of its $2.4 billion bid
for Compass, and later recovered after sources said the bid was
shelved. "That's particularly bad for this share, because it's
regarded mainly as a dividend stock," the trader said.
Analyst Ben Johnson of Morningstar Research said rumors of
takeovers and mergers in the fertilizer industry have been rampant
in recent weeks, as many have cash to spend. Talk was fuelled also
by a hostile bid by CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) for Terra
Industries Inc. (TRA), which was followed by Agrium Inc.'s (AGU)
hostile bid for CF.
Johnson noted K+S is considered a small to medium-sized player
in the potash production market, dwarfed by Canada's Potash Corp.
of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT) and Mosaic Co. (MOS).
"In terms of organic growth, K+S' options are somewhat limited
given where its assets are," said Johnson. But he added that K+S
doesn't suffer from a "grow or die" scenario.
And with fertilizer prices falling rapidly in 2009, particularly
for potash and nitrogen, Johnson doesn't see any "mega deals" on
the horizon. WestLB's Fickus, who has a "reduce" rating on K+S
stock with a EUR29.70 target price, said DSM's nitrate business
would fit well with K+S' current product line, but only "if it came
at the right price."
-By Allison Connolly, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 69 29725513;
allison.connolly@dowjones.com