Comcast Could Change Competitive Dynamics With NBC Deal
October 02 2009 - 12:57PM
Dow Jones News
In the eyes of telecommunications and satellite TV providers,
Comcast Corp. (CMCSK, CMCSA) could make an awkward transition from
heated rival to a major content provider, if the Philadelphia
company succeeds in buying a stake in NBC Universal.
The reported talks between Comcast and NBC parent General
Electric Co. (GE) are still in the early stages, but any potential
deal drastically changes the competitive dynamics. Rather than
fighting for the best programming rates from NBC Universal
properties, Comcast will be on the other side of the bargaining
table striking deals with distribution competitors such as AT&T
Inc. (T) or DirecTV Group Inc. (DTV)
It's unclear what, if any, changes will come if Comcast has a
hand in the creation and sale of NBC content. The company already
runs several niche cable channels, notably E! and the Golf Channel,
and has to follow existing program-sharing rules. Any deal would
fall under intense regulatory scrutiny.
"Given the magnitude of a Comcast-NBCU deal ... we would not be
surprised to see other pay-TV operators considering asking the
(Federal Communications Commission) for a more effective
enforcement process," said Paul Gallant, analyst at Washington
Research Group.
There is no shortage of friction between the cable providers and
its telco and satellite TV rivals. The rhetoric between the cable
and telcos is particularly vehement because both compete directly
on television and phone services.
AT&T and Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), for example, have
complained to the FCC that Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC) is
wrongfully withholding high-definition sports programming from the
telcos, although they can access the standard-definition
version.
AT&T has a similar complaint regarding Cox Communications'
exclusive rights to broadcast San Diego Padres games. The FCC has
yet to make a formal ruling on either of the complaints, although
its media bureau panel has advised dismissing AT&T's
complaint.
Comcast, despite a harsh advertising campaign against its
rivals, has kept a generally cordial relationship in regard to its
programming deals.
"We've been able to live with its past practices," said Verizon
spokesman Eric Rabe. "They have not made a big fuss."
A deal would bring few changes to the programming deals,
according to industry observers.
"It tilts things slightly, but not in a significant way," said
Thomas Eagan, analyst at Collins Stewart.
AT&T and DirecTV declined to comment. A Dish Network Corp.
(DISH) spokeswoman couldn't be reached for comment.
Cable operators Time Warner Cable Inc. (TWC), Cablevision and
Cox, which would also have to potentially deal with Comcast,
declined to comment.
Time Warner Cable could be seen as a warning to Comcast: The
company spun out of Time Warner Inc. (TWX) because it couldn't find
adequate benefits from operating as one combined entity.
Verizon shares fell 0.2% to $29.95, while AT&T slipped 0.4%
to $26.50. DirecTV fell 1.1% to $27.19 and Dish fell 0.6% to
$19.25.
The cable companies fell more significantly, possibly on fears
that other cable companies may need to follow Comcast's lead with a
significant purchase of content assets. However, Gabelli & Co.
analyst Christopher Marangi argued that any move by Comcast to
shape the digital future of television in its favor could benefit
the entire industry.
On Friday, Comcast shares fell 3.6% to $14.39, Time Warner Cable
slid 3.3% to $40.38 and Cablevision dropped 2% to $22.54.
Regardless, most players are taking a wait-and-see approach.
"We're watching it, but no one's obsessing about it here,"
Verizon's Rabe said.
-By Roger Cheng, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2153;
roger.cheng@dowjones.com