U.S. Dollar Extends Decline After Fed Minutes, Payroll Revisions
August 21 2024 - 12:28PM
RTTF2
The U.S. dollar extended decline against its major counterparts
in the New York session on Wednesday, as the minutes from the
Federal Reserve's July meeting reinforced expectations for a rate
cut in September.
The minutes showed that vast majority of participants believed
it would "likely be appropriate" to lower rates at the next meeting
if inflation data continued to come in "about as expected."
While the minutes also said almost all participants felt
additional data was needed to provide "greater confidence"
inflation is moving sustainably toward the Fed's 2 percent target,
they viewed the incoming data as "enhancing their confidence."
"Almost all participants observed that the factors that had
contributed to recent disinflation would likely continue to put
downward pressure on inflation in coming months," the Fed said.
Fed officials unanimously agreed to leave interest rates
unchanged at the meeting, although the minutes noted several
participants observed that the progress on inflation and increases
in the unemployment rate had provided a plausible case for reducing
the target range by 25 basis points at the July meeting.
Revised data from the Labor Department showed that job growth in
the U.S. was weaker than previously reported in the twelve months
ended March 2024.
The U.S. economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from March 2023 to
March 2024 than initially reported, reflecting 0.5 percent weaker
job growth.
After the release of the minutes, CME Group's FedWatch Tool
indicates a 59.5 percent of a quarter point rate cut next month and
a 40.5 percent chance of a half point rate cut.
The greenback fell to more than 1-year lows of 1.1174 against
the euro and 1.3119 against the pound, from yesterday's close of
1.1129 and 1.3029, respectively.
The greenback dropped to more than a 2-week low of 0.8495
against the franc and a 2-week low of 144.45 against the yen, from
yesterday's closing quotes of 0.8540 and 145.25, respectively.
The greenback weakened to a fresh 5-week low of 0.6761 against
the aussie, more than 2-month low of 0.6178 against the kiwi and
more than a 4-month low of 1.3575 against the loonie, from
Tuesday's closing quotes of 0.6741, 0.6152 and 1.3620,
respectively.
The greenback is likely to find support around 1.13 against the
euro, 1.33 against the pound, 0.83 against the franc, 141.00
against the yen, 0.68 against the aussie, 0.63 against the kiwi and
1.34 against the loonie.
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