Amarin Corp PLC (AMRN) Options

lizzy241, thanks for that response. As I mentioned, I do not know what rules / laws apply to a broker picking up the shares to flip to their client but your explanation certainly makes sense. Wasn't sure if Amarin's prior announcement of approval of a BB and using Cantor was enough signal to the market. Guess not.

How about Amarin competing on price with present Vascepa capsule, dropping the price, and have insurance plans covering the AG along with rest of  "competing"(?) generics. New Brand Vascepa would be emulsified product in development. Pardon me while I go to NVDA earnings!

Possibly, an approval of Italy (in coming weeks) might signify operational execution and improvement and justify BB initiation? The guy leading Europe said he was confident they would have positive news on Italy in the coming weeks.

caddie, we know that they have applied for an extension until May. I suspect that will be approved (it may even move up on that news) and that initiation of the BB could easily push it back over $1. I'm agnostic about a reverse split and in fact would welcome it just to get the news over and done with. I would add into any big drop and it could finally compel Sarissa to buy more or for the company to buy back shares at a massive discount to cash + inventory.

Pro, does the FUD of a reverse split play into your new purchases here at all? I’d rather see the pps limp back above the decimal point on its own rather than gutting the share count of every player, including Sarissa.

Kiwi, I am not sure but here is the one thing that might be impacted with an authorized generic. You and others can school me on this but do PBMs or insurance companies only permit one generic version for their coverage/formularies? I swear that I have gotten various manufacturers of GV over the last 2 years all while having the same insurance and PBM. So if they do not single out a particular generic manufacturer, this is what I am thinking.

My insurance a couple of years ago aborted covering V altogether. Now this past July CVS stopped covering it for their commercial plans. Not sure how many other PBMs/ insurers have curtailed covering brand V. But, they all cover GV. So my thought is that an authorized generic V would fall into that generic category wouldn't it and hence be covered. Now, do all the GVs offer their product to the PBMs at the same price, I don't know? How do patients request an authorized generic instead of a non-authorized generic? But otherwise I would have to agree with you PBM go with what makes them the most money.

Continuing to add... rolling out of a winner with LT gains and averaging down Amarin. Selling pressure likely tax selling based... the stock could easily jump on either or both a Sarissa add or initiation of buyback. I've been trying to reach IR at Amarin but Mark Marmur has not yet followed up on my request to speak about a few questions I emailed but were not answered during the presentation.

As an aside, I have been thinking about the China NRDL situation. This may have been mentioned elsewhere. As an example, Keytruda (Merck) and (Opdivo (BMS) opted not to participate in the NRDL process in China as they did not want to compete on price. I don't know what the list price of these drugs are in China (around 300K in the US per year), but regardless of that they have close to 10% market share in China. So sure, its great to have NRDL for high volume, but with the growing middle class willing and able to pay out of pocket for cancer drugs, I would imagine the OOP segment, even at 1% of the 300 million paying list price can generate some good revenue. Just my opinion.

Hi Kiwi,

I was just sharing what they say in their slide as something they are considering. My intent was not to endorse or comment on the strategy. I can not speak to whether there an "all things being equal" strategy for authorized generic vs. regular generic getting preferential formulary placement.

How in the world does price action supporting the CEO's unsupported opinion constitute manipulation and illegality? Bit of a stretch for me. I can easily give you several concrete facts that support a narrative that places the value of the company at or below current value. I could also give you a couple of opinions that support a case of AMRN being undervalued. As I still own my shares, I can only hope that AD knows more than me. Hope is a lousy investing strategy, but for this ticker, its all we have.

Chromo. Can U explain to me how an Authorized generic would really move the needle .
Health providers like Kaiser will go with the lowest cost ...either generic , authorized generic or brand IMHO ...what ever is the lowest volume cost
What % of patients are willing to pay a premium for authorized generic vs generic ...and how much of a premium can they charge
Kiwi

Did anyone happen to catch this? Apologies if it has mentioned but just saw this on the investor presentation

U.S.: Continuing to retain IPE market share leadership in the U.S., despite additional generic competition; advancing plans to launch authorized generic

Lizzy, agreed. Front-running is among the numerous reasons why Cantor buying "quietly" likely wouldn't work.

What I am not sure about is the exact timing of the communication of the "kickoff" of a share repurchase. Since it's already been announced via 8K, I believe that Cantor could start buying, and then must properly follow the disclosure rules for share re-purchases.

Does that sound correct?

Re the China market ...from Bloomberg

So why will Chinese looking to lose weight be paying so much less for Wegovy than their counterparts in the US, where health-care costs can be notoriously sky-high?

Let’s start with the obvious: As many as 95% of China’s 1.4 billion people get basic health insurance through a government agency that controls which drugs get reimbursed. Every year, domestic and foreign drugmakers gather in a nondescript building in Beijing to meet with authorities from this agency to negotiate prices of their drugs. It’s a grueling exercise that ultimately determines whether they earn a spot on the coveted National Reimbursement Drug List, or NRDL.

The agency is known to drive a hard bargain. In 2023, drug companies slashed prices by an average of nearly 62% to get their medications on the NRDL, in a bet that the sales volume it unlocked would be worth the price cut.

It’s common for foreign drugmakers to cut prices in the lead-up to the negotiations, in anticipation of further cuts. Even those who choose not to engage would need to face competitors, including local companies who are increasingly capable of developing me-too versions of their drugs.

And unlike the US, China doesn't have complicated systems for rebates, meaning drug companies don't have to bake in as big of a cut for middlemen.

Wegovy’s $193 price tag in China is likely to fuel more complaints about high drug costs in the US, where Senator Bernie Sanders has accused Novo’s chief executive officer of prioritizing profits over American lives.

Chinese authorities have made clear they don’t intend to reimburse for Wegovy use, meaning most patients will pay out of pocket unless they have commercial insurance. Still, keeping the treatment affordable will likely help Novo make inroads among the 140 million Chinese adults estimated to live with obesity by 2030.


Kiwi

JRoon, I think I figured out why I haven't been seeing your post.
I replied to the same conversation you and DAR's have had in the past re Cantor Fitz buying the stock for their own account with the anticipation of flipping the shares sometime in the future to the company is illegal. If your previous experience has been in trading in the mkt you should know that the term is called frontrunning and is definitely frowned upon by FINRA and the SEC.

What Is Front-Running?
Front-running is trading of stock or any other financial asset by a broker who has inside knowledge of a future transaction that is about to affect its price substantially. A broker may also front-run based on insider knowledge that their firm is about to issue a "buy" or "sell" recommendation to clients that will almost certainly affect the price of an asset.

This exploitation of information that isn't yet public is illegal and unethical in almost all cases. Front-running is also called tailgating.

JR, thanks for your response. I just didn't know if maybe Cantor started any purchases during Q4 and has not had to report to date. Maybe we'll find out what Amarin is doing at some point. Crickets except for the somewhat meaningless investor call.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175402794

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/hidden-risks-share-buybacks
Sleven,

Given that getting the share price above $1.00 in the next couple weeks seemed unlikely, Amarin obviously needed to pursue an extension. The extension is for 6 months and as far as I know, shorter extension periods are not given. So, how do you conclude "next 3 to 4 months"? Seems to me it could be 3 weeks to 6 months. 

Triple, they are very limited in how much they can buy each week anyway, so even if they DID start the buyback, we're only talking about a couple hundred thousand shares per day, at most.
Think about the math...they are allowed 25% of the average daily volume. Right now, the average daily volume (30-day) is 890K shares. 25% of that is 223K. Call it 250K. At the current share price (call it $0.50), that's $125K per day. There's roughly 21 market days in a month. That's $2.6M a month in purchases. So, VERY low need for cash liquidity right away. Even if you double the share count (due to increased average volume), or double the share price (because the BB will pump the price), you are talking $5M a month. Double volume AND price, and you are still only talking $10M a month.

This is also why this is very confusing. For a very small cost of cash, they could begin executing the BB.

I do still believe that they think either (1) the price can go lower, or (2) they want to time their purchases more strategically.

the $60 Million could also be for flexibility to pull the trigger on buybacks quickly if the opportunity materializes

Dumbest statement of the month here!

"They recently filed for an extension to May 2025 on the delisting issue. Therefore I am inclined to think that they do not foresee the price going to $1.00 in the next 3 to 4 months."

Re buyback acquisition & price movement in the stock
IMO any buyback will not happen anytime soon as the must strive to maintain their cash position of ( 300K) for a long as possible in the event of possible erosion of the gross profit margin & revenue downside. Also, One must notice that between the second & 3rd quarter, they have moved close to 60 million of their cash to short term investment, with the hope to garner additional income & possibly cash from these investments. That would also confirm that they do not intend to drain their cash in the short term via a Buyback.
With reference to a possible improvement in the share price in the short term: They recently filed for an extension to May 2025 on the delisting issue. Therefore I am inclined to think that they do not foresee the price going to $1.00 in the next 3 to 4 months. Aside from some unexpected new reimbursements in EU countries , unusual high increase in EU scripts in EU or a favorable legal decision vs Hikma case, It is hard to fathom the share price getting close to $1.00 in the next three months.
As for the acquisition: No one, I think expect a BP to take interest in this company based on the current revenue level & share price of the stock. Until there are major improvement in the EU sales and ROW (China included), I doubt any of them would venture in a possible acquisition of the company.

RMB, you are correct. Those Zacks articles (and a few others) are AI written. They have a template, and they just scrape filing data from the web to fill in the blanks. The identical articles appear for dozens (hundreds?) of other stocks.
I completely ignore those articles.

Funny that I see a little perk-up in the stock price (late yesterday and this am pre-market at 53 cents but only 500 shares) as O saw this article yesterday from Zacks. These articles are a dime a dozen and usually meaningless. As a matter of fact I was puzzled by the end of their first sentence: "Wall Street analysts expect the company to report better earnings than they predicted earlier." Is that correct?

Anyway for anyone interested, sorry if already posted:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plunging-19-13-4-weeks-143506058.html

An acquisition ain't happening. And if it DID, it would not be some speculative acquisition like BP's make. It would be an existing drug that would be synergistic with Vascepa (ie. a generic statin).
But I also don't see that happening.
I think they may wait until there is more clarity on Europe, and they may even wait until after the end of 2025 when China is approved for reimbursement (for 2026).

DAR, I have thought through that possibility. As you said, they would be subject to filing, so we would know about it. And they are also subject to quarterly 13f's regardless. I have been tracking the 13f's, and no entity of Cantor (they have several) has filed for even 1 share of AMRN (through Q3).

I have not been able to confirm if that would even be legal (for them to "wink-wink" buy for their own accounts, with the eventual plan to sell to Amarin) for them to do, and not have Amarin file that. Since Amarin already filed to say taht Cantor is doing this.

Not to say it's NOT possible somehow. I just don't know how. And if it's sketchy, not sure Denner wants to go back to the well just after getting nabbed for failure to fulfill his fiduciary duties.

Could, I guess I threw out the acquisition idea mostly to highlight that they aren't doing much with that pile of cash. I would be worried about two things with them trying to acquire an accretive asset.  First, I see so many deals where the buyer overpays and gets screwed. Secondly, since they have mismanaged the golden goose they have, no reason to believe they would do any better with another.  

I guess I was thinking of saying that maybe Denner should invest that cash with Sarissa's team or another firm, but thought it was too crass to say, but the point would be to show that the reason we invest in these companies is that they are supposed to do better for us than us simply putting our miney in a money market fund or online savings account.  

Of course we don't know everything and just speculating as to why they haven't started the BB, so there could be some valid reason for their reticence.  We usually find out in the end

Rose, An acquisition by AMRN would make sense if
it were synergistic in some way or lead to a significant
return. Long ago I believe John Thero had mentioned
the need for diversification but nothing ever came of it.
I hope Denner is focused on making whatever moves
that would result in an optimal BO price for AMRN. I do
believe that the share price will remain under pressure
until a share buyback begins in earnest.

They could do a Gypsy Swap, where the price and quantity are pre set, then it may not go across the public view.

I posted this yesterday with no responses with regard to the BB. I don't know what the legal requirements are. All I know is the $50M BB is approved and Cantor will handle it.

Question for the board. Since Cantor is named as the agent that will handle a potential share BB for Amarin, can they already be making purchases up to the 5% ownership which would require a 13D or G to be filed. And would they be held to the same daily purchase volume restrictions that Amarin will? If they could, then Cantor could pick up 20.5M shares before the market actually knows it. And by today's prices, that would be less than $10M of the approved $50M.
Just thinking.

Many co's announce a buyback but never purchase a single share. I believe this co will just add to that list. Maybe Denner thinks the stock is overvalued lol.

You think strangers can hurt my feelings? You really have no clue about me but by all means, continue to amuse me :)

Could, it is difficult for me to understand other than they know that their revenue will continue to take hits.

I also wonder if their delaying of the BB has played a role in the depressed stock price. The market thinking the same as you and I that the BB delay/postponement/cancellation, means more bad news for the company ahead and hence the stock gets sold constantly.

It seems to me that they are not using all that cash wisely (again not knowing if there is a financial disaster coming for V in the U.S.) by just sitting on it. If no BB then use it to acquire another asset that is accretive, no?

Any thoughts on Cantor CEO nominated for Commerce Secretary. He is probably too far removed but their analyst was one of the perpetual bulls for AMRN. Also I believe they are the shop that would be buying shares on behalf of AMRN (assuming if and when it happens).

Caddiedad, Presuming it may take up to a year
for the buyback to fully complete, the sooner a buyback
begins, the sooner the share count is reduced. Even if
they expected a couple of quarters of challenging results,
better to have a buyback program in place during that time
rather than to have it going as results are showing improvement.
I really wonder why the buyback program still hasn't initiated
when the effect of the "bad quarters" seem to be fully reflected
in the share price. This makes no logical sense to me unless
management expects a severe cash crunch.

Nuke, Good deal.
Sleven,

I didn't take offense NS, I knew I crossed the line. Just that some people need to think before they write gibberish.

Nuke, I'm not pointing at you. Political change can effect our investment. Fine line for discussion.
Sleven,

I understand, Read it here first. I didn't start this diatribe.

Political discussion should end.
Sleven,

Yes sure, RMB Take your vitamins and you'ld be fine.

Get over it, you lost. Did you even read his bio or are you too irritated because Trump might have chosen a suitable candidate for this position? Unlike Biden allowing Long range missiles in the Ukraine. Escalating the war even further?

That's another absolutely brilliant selection. He and JFK Jr. are just what the doctor ordered! No wonder all my biotech stocks have been heading south with no end in sight.

You troll the board and get your feelings hurt. We all know that around here.

Just out.  Story claiming Dr. Oz being tapped as head of CMS. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/19/donald-trump-mehmet-dr-oz-medicare-medicaid/76432777007/

Question for the board. Since Cantor is named as the agent that will handle a potential share BB for Amarin, can they already be making purchases up to the 5% ownership which would require a 13D or G to be filed. And would they be held to the same daily purchase volume restrictions that Amarin will? If they could, then Cantor could pick up 20.5M shares before the market actually knows it. And by today's prices, that would be less than $10M of the approved $50M.
Just thinking.

Other than that Mrs Lincoln, how was the play :-P

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plunging-19-13-4-weeks-143506058.html

MK, the results you are referring to are only the saturation of EPA in colorectal tissue. There was no measurement related to cancer. This was just used to determine if EPA could get into the tissue effectively (it did).

There were two secondary measures that did not achieve any level of significance.

Mk, There are 3 cancer studies involving icosapent ethyl. One is completed phase 1/2. The other two are linked. Primary study completion estimate, for the study I posted, is November 2024.
Sleven,