WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and
CHICAGO, Nov. 1, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Producer sentiment
about the agricultural economy fell in October as focus shifted to
2017 and optimism about the future declined, according to the
November 1 reading of the Purdue/CME
Group Ag Economy Barometer.
The Barometer landed at 92, down nine points from September's
101 reading. The current reading is the second-lowest since data
collection began a year ago, with only March's 85 coming in lower.
The barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 U.S. agricultural
producers.
The drop was due in large part to the Index of Future
Expectations, which fell from 109 in September to 95 in October,
said Jim Mintert, barometer principal investigator and director of
Purdue's Center for Commercial
Agriculture.
"The decline in producer sentiment recorded during October was
primarily driven by an erosion in producers' perspective regarding
the long-run health of the U.S. agricultural economy," he said.
"Producers expressed strong pessimism about the agricultural
economy's prospects in the next year."
Seventy-nine percent of respondents said that they expect bad
times financially over the next 12 months—a jump of 11 percentage
points since September. This is the highest share of respondents
expressing pessimism since data collection began.
A factor in producer outlook on the future is price
expectations, Mintert said. This month's survey included questions
about expectations for movement in July
2017 Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures prices for corn
and soybeans.
Twenty-seven percent of respondents said they expect
July 2017 CBOT corn futures prices
below today's levels. Twenty-five percent said they expect
July 2017 CBOT soybean futures prices
below where they are today.
Many producers indicated they will make crop management changes
in 2017 as a result of these expectations, including 46 percent who
intend to lower fertilizer rates.
Also included in the October report is the quarterly Ag Thought
Leaders Survey of 100 agribusiness executives, commodity
association leaders, agricultural lenders and academics engaged in
the agricultural sector. Overall, the thought leaders were more
optimistic about crop prices than producers.
Read the full October report, including analysis of the Ag
Thought Leaders Survey, at http://purdue.edu/agbarometer. The site
also has additional resources and a form to sign up for monthly
barometer email updates and quarterly webinars.
The next webinar is Nov. 3 at
1:30 p.m. (EDT). Mintert and Michael
Langemeier, Purdue professor of
agricultural economics, will offer insights from the most recent
surveys, including thought leaders, and discuss factors driving
producer and thought-leader sentiment. Register at
https://ag.purdue.edu/commercialag/ageconomybarometer/update/.
The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index
of Future Expectations are now being reported on the Bloomberg
Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and
AGECFTEX.
About the Purdue University
Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to
provide professional development and educational programs for
farmers. Housed within Purdue
University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the
center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and
educational programs that address the different needs of managing
in today's business environment.
About CME Group
As the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace,
CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) is where the world comes to manage
risk. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global
benchmark products across all major asset classes, including
futures and options based on interest rates, equity indexes,
foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products and metals. Around
the world, CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its
CME Globex® electronic trading platform and its exchanges based in
Chicago, New York and London. CME Group also operates one of the
world's leading central counterparty clearing providers through CME
Clearing and CME Clearing Europe, which offer clearing and
settlement services across asset classes for exchange-traded and
over-the-counter derivatives. CME Group's products and services
ensure that businesses around the world can effectively manage risk
and achieve growth.
CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globe Logo, CME,
Globex and Chicago Mercantile Exchange are trademarks of Chicago
Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and the Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the
Board of Trade of the City of
Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and
ClearPort are registered trademarks of New York Mercantile
Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All
other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Further information about CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) and its products
can be found at www.cmegroup.com.
CME-G
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SOURCE CME Group