WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and
CHICAGO, Nov. 7, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Producer sentiment
toward the agricultural economy improved slightly in October,
according to a monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers from
across the United States.
The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer landed at
135 in October, up three points from September. It represented the
third-highest reading since data collection began two years
ago.
The improvement was driven by the Index of Future Expectations,
which increased from 130 in September to 137 in October. The Index
of Future Expectations is one of the barometer's two sub-indices.
The other, the Index of Current Conditions, weakened slightly.
For the second year in a row, producers were asked whether they
plan to make management changes, such as lowering fertilizer or
seeding rates, or adjusting their hybrid or variety packages for
the upcoming cropping season. The share planning reductions in
seeding rates and changes to their hybrid or variety choices for
2018 changed little from last October with 19 percent expecting
lower seeding rates and 35 percent planning to adjust seed variety
or hybrid packages. But the percentage of producers planning to
reduce fertilizer usage in 2018 was noticeably smaller. Just
one-third of respondents said they plan to reduce fertilizer rates
in 2018, down from 46 percent a year ago.
"One possible reason for the smaller share of producers planning
to reduce fertilizer rates in 2018 is prices," said James Mintert,
director of Purdue's Center for
Commercial Agriculture and principal investigator on the barometer
project. "Fertilizer prices, particularly for anhydrous ammonia,
are lower than a year ago. For example, recent price quotes for
anhydrous ammonia were 20 percent lower than a year ago, with other
crop nutrient prices exhibiting smaller price declines."
Each quarter, producers are asked their expectations for crop
prices in the coming year. Compared to July, fewer producers expect
higher corn, soybean and wheat prices in the next 12 months.
However, fewer producers also expect crop prices to decline over
the next year.
For the first time, producers were asked about their
expectations for farmland rental expenses in 2018. An overwhelming
80 percent of respondents said that they expect farmland rental
rates to be unchanged in 2018 compared to 2017. The remaining 20
percent of respondents were split equally between those expecting
rental rates to be higher and those expecting lower rates in
2018.
The full October report includes more information about producer
sentiment toward farm machinery prices and overall farm expenses,
as well as insights from the quarterly Agricultural Thought-Leader
Survey. Read the full report at http://purdue.edu/agbarometer.
The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index
of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal
under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and
AGECFTEX.
About the Purdue University Center
for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to
provide professional development and educational programs for
farmers. Housed within Purdue
University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the
center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and
educational programs that address the different needs of managing
in today's business environment.
About CME Group
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Writer: Jennifer
Stewart-Burton, 765-496-6032, jsstewar@purdue.edu
Sources: Jim Mintert,
765-494-4310, jmintert@purdue.edu
David Widmar, 765-494-0848,
dwidmar@purdue.edu
Chris Grams, 312-930-3435,
chris.grams@cmegroup.com
Related website:
Purdue
University Center for Commercial Agriculture:
http://purdue.edu/commercialag
CME Group: http://www.cmegroup.com/
Photo Caption
The Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed to
135 in October, the third-highest producer sentiment reading since
data collection began in 2015. (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/David Widmar)
A publication-quality photo is available at:
https://news.uns.purdue.edu/images/2017/mintert-october.jpg
CME-G
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