Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA) Quote

I doubled my position in past Couple weeks

Amazed by the fact that there are so many shares up for sales in 6s range. Especially given the actual public float size of ENTA

I've bought 3 times in the last week-10 days, including this morning. Maybe about 15% total increase. Now comes the period of waiting.

FWIW, I increased my shares of ENTA by 20% this morning at $6.15 and bought a bit more VKTX.

my understanding is that about 40% of pediatric patients get antivirals for flu. Lower than ideal because of the risk for complications in the young, but still a sizeable chunk. Mind you this is without much marketing (tamiflu is generic)

The market seems to overlook ENTA's assets… What is the board’s thoughts on the impact of the Covid pandemic and an underlying mistrust and subsequent underutilization of antiviral medications. Ex. Some physicians hesitate in prescribing anti-virals for flu in pediatric patients due to misunderstandings and /,or lack of confidence in their effectiveness. Does the successful pursuit of an unmet medical need
guarantee a higher enterprise value?

Waiting to see the adult RSV data makes sense. Strong results could secure substantial upfront funding, while poor data could allow ENTA to shift focus to more promising areas.

As noted, a well-funded immunology company should command a higher valuation than ENTA's current trading price.

The market seems to overlook ENTA's assets anyway —RSV, the lawsuit, and remaining royalties—treating them more like liabilities.

Me too. They probably want to see the adult HR data and if Shionogi has comparable challenge data from their L inhibitor before finalizing any plan

Anxious to see how ENTA management moves forward given (2) leading molecules for RSV.

I don't think any potential partner feels any urgency just to get in on FDA meetings, but they could partner hoping to get more favorable terms if they think the drugs have a good chance of success. After the adult HR data the cost could go up if the data are good (and I think they will be)

Thoughts on partnership?

They mentioned they want to start talking to FDA on phase 3 design soon and surely sounded like they will do so before the adult study finishes.

I assume potential partners would love to join phase 3 meetings and the trial design would be somewhat different if they have someone to pay the bill vs self funding.

Does it imply they would want to get a partner sooner rather than later? Seems inefficient to do meetings with FDA and then need to change things after the partnership forms?

Agreed. The selloff will trigger more selling, especially during tax-loss season, as many seek losses to offset gains in a strong market year.

Yes, Tuesday… thanks.
Yes, bizarre… hopefully better days are ahead.

Yes, rather confusing. Sorry. I remember looking at a news wire and it said 2:20p. I do think misunderstanding contributed, as did heavy tax loss selling, and the jumping on a bearish trend. Now as I understand… analysts do not point to any negative change in ENTA’s fundamentals, given the RSVPEDs trial results. In fact, most viewed the RSVPEDS trial as a positive. I have no idea what will happen to ENTA stock price over the next few weeks… but my guess is the pice will move back to $10-12.

I think the Evercore guy is probably a reader of this board. Could well be. The question (as 'dewophile' asked) is why the selloff has continued. It may be that the misconception cited in #msg-175517933 was the initial trigger and then "technical" traders" caused the downtrend to become self-perpetuating, resulting in the cumulative drop of 34% since the FDA released the briefing docs during trading hours on Tuesday.

The market does bizarre things, so I cannot rule out the above scenario, but neither can I say that this explanation is dispositive. The uncertainty makes it hard to decide how to exploit the situation.

I think you mean Tuesday (12/10/24), not Wednesday (12/11/23). Th FDA released the briefing docs for the VRBPAC meeting on Tuesday. (The meeting itself occurred on Thursday.)

I think the Evercore guy is probably a reader of this board.

I guess nobody knows. There is really no valid explanation for this stock to trade at below net cash, let alone this level.

The RSV program isnt that bad.

I am hoping for a quick reversal one day

Sucks to have this sell off on one of my largest holding and I dont have a good idea on why

Hmm if you correlated the move with the release of the FDA doc and this is in fact the cause for the drop then this would be the height of stupidity (and an insane opportunity for a trade ). I mean not only is it not a negative but it is a positive for the prospects of an antiviral.

I hope you are right that would mean the price should reverse abruptly but just hasn’t happened yet I am personally not holding my breath

FWIW, ENTA was moving up (Wed) and reversed w/in minutes of release of FDA letter on RSV vaccines. ENTA trading at $9.11 then @ 2:20pm 48K shares hit the tape @ $8.88. It’s been down since then.

Immediately emailed the company once we knew that the data had been lumped together incorrectly with the vaccine moratorium. Obviously, the IR took some corrective action - but, not enough.

Personally, there could be a group of disgruntled employees or a fund (for year-end tax selling) or those unknown "alien" drones flying over NJ & NY, that seek to have these shares go down the tubes! THEY ARE MISTAKEN - but after my lobotomy - not sure -----

I actually think it is a big factor, not about the data. The data is not home run but it was not that bad, especially considering that the stock was actually up on the data release date. Not like the stock was priced in decent data

Thanks for sharing
The selling continues so obviously this was not a factor in the steep drop the past few days. It must be increased pessimism in the drug's prospects following the data, coupled with the fact that the company needs to do more work including validating their clinical symptom tool, and indication that they would be moving 323 forward now as well resulting in additional costs
I still maintain that the company likely doesn't move to phase 3 without a partner, and if they cannot get one they just work on 323 given it's greater antiviral effect alone or in combination with zelicapavir (this assumes poor data in the adult HR trial). So my take is that the burn does not increase bc they don't go to phase 3 w zeli (at least as a monotherapy) on their own
Shionogi guided for challenge data for their L inhibitor this quarter so 2 more weeks. I would expect good data there because same MOA as ENTA , a company with good track record with antivirals, but if their data seems worse than enta (low probability) that could give the stock a lift near term
very depressing
I added 1200 at 6.09, with plans to add up to another 25K overall, just figuring many of those shares look like they are gong to be at lower prices at this rate so doing it gradually. too much cash on hand with a good management team to not add at these levels IMO

We are getting some feedback on shares of ENTA being inadvertently lumped together with RSV vaccine stocks following Tuesday’s pause by FDA on all pediatric studies of RSV vaccines,
following a signal of vaccine-associated enhanced respiratory disease.. As posited in #msg-175517933.

From Evercore - Clarification of FDA pause on RSV
pediatric vaccines & NOT RSV pediatric
therapeutics

ENTA’s stock is trading down -25% since its P2b RSVPEDs data for its
RSV anti-viral zelicapavir in pediatrics came out on Monday, which showed a solid anti-viral effect of >1log in the pediatric population.
See our note HERE and deep dive HERE).
We are getting some feedback on shares of ENTA being inadvertently lumped together with RSV vaccine stocks following Tuesday’s pause by FDA on all pediatric studies of RSV vaccines,
following a signal of vaccine-associated enhanced respiratory disease
(VAERD).
Source: FactSet
The FDA pause is ONLY on clinical studies of RSV vaccines in
pediatrics and does not include RSV therapeutics in pediatrics.
In fact, we see the RSV therapeutic developers (led by ENTA with
limited competition) as a potential benefactor of the pause
because the absence of vaccines creates even greater need for
treatment. We project this could be a $2B+ opportunity.
We think the key limitation of the RSVPEDs data is the connection
between anti-viral activity & clinical outcome (though we have 1
benchmark from ArkBio which suggests 0.6 log drove a 30% reduction
in the bronchiolitis symptoms score). ENTA delivered > 1 log so we
are cautious optimistic this level of activity can drive faster
symptom resolution, with the goal of 1 day (extrapolated from data
for flu therapies) using ETNA’s proprietary RESOLVE-P tool.
We look for data in high risk adults, the RSVHR P2b study, which
we project could come in mid-2025, to further derisk the program
by both confirming the anti-viral effect in a second study and also
making the case for faster symptom resolution, albeit using a different
symptom scoring tool (RiiQ) than would be used in pediatrics.


Sorry about the formatting

Originally it was expected by the end of the year but it seems to be dragging out a little longer

Is summary judgement 👩🏽‍⚖️ on the Paxlovid lawsuit expected to occur in the near future?
Thanks…
// Lawsuit initiated June 2022

There's no fool like an old fool. 🙂 I am somewhat comfortable with the current RSV presentation, I'm kinda in hold mode. Hell, I've been in hold mode since Enanta started (and later discontinued a 2nd HBV candidate, then a covid candidate). I rationalize that I'm lowering my average stock share price and compared to the other purchases this is cheap, a trifle. I'm hoping that come the new year share price will reverse. The key word in my post is rationalize. That's how I got where I am. 🙂 I have also seen stocks reverse abruptly and I do think that the next trial presentation has a potential to be better than the peds. I also have some modicum of faith that the new method of interpreting symptoms/ scores may yield some success. Kind of a bottom line is that in terms of virology I've always felt this was a very good company.
So I hope for a RSV partnership. Sooner, later? I think I trust them to make the right decision.

This is the hard part of investing. John Maynard Keynes' famous quote, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent," applies here and often in other stocks as well. But I am not of a mind to pull the trigger to sell and finalize my losses. So yes, I bought today after I figured that it wouldn't go much lower than $8 (a few days ago). The basic fundamentals still look OK to me. One of my favorite stock analogies is bigger kids stealing lunches or candy from smaller kids on the playground. That can apply in stocks as well. And so, is this a catastrophe or an opportunity?

Hard to believe after all said and done, this company is below $6.66/share, the pathetic offer for the "other" company I thought was a good investment.

The company says they hope to complete enrollment this season. RSV up north technically ends in April so that gets you to mid year for data. However most RSV cases occur November to January so May is possible

I have caught my share of falling knives over the years want to be careful, and the the adult HR data which is a potential catalyst is still a ways off

I need to think a bit more before acting. Selling some ENTA is a chance to generate more tax loss as the adult data may be a ways off. How did you come to that conclusion of the data being a ways off. I didn't get a chance to hear the CC yet. Was it mentioned there? When do you think it could happen?

OTOH, the damn price is so low I keep feeling a rebound must be coming so it would be ice to increase share now. What to do?

FWIW, this was supposed to be in responses to dewophile's post

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175520320

I added 2400 @6.28. Will likely buy a bit more tomorrow.

Wow
I’m prepared to add 25 percent more to my position but would like to see the stock stabilize and rise some first but it’s certainly tempting to already pull the trigger

>> M or A could be anytime


Thats my thought as well, the premium will have to significant. 200 percent even if RSV is marked as free.

I wish i can add that much more, percentage wise.

But at current point, i am willing to break my allocation rule ;) try me lol

It’s tough less couple weeks here, then just thought things cant go worse. Doom, down 30 percent last couple days without any significant news.

Yes, data is few months away, but still.

Not asking too much for this to trade back to at least cash value after the liquidation sales is done

I bought some. Increased my position by 83% but it's not a large holding. I may buy more if it continues down.

Agreed. And my large position got much smaller the past few days and weeks. I may buy in the coming days. It’s pretty crazy the royalty is worth about 5 dollars and trading at 6

the adult HR data which is a potential catalyst is still a ways off -

Quite true - but a M or A could be anytime. I.E. Phizer could alleviate a big headache by purchasing ENTA NOW! .

yes but not a lot
I have caught my share of falling knives over the years want to be careful, and the the adult HR data which is a potential catalyst is still a ways off

Anyone buying?

That’s good flo. Thanks.

Some experienced investors I've talked to about ENTA had thought ENTA's RSV program was about a vaccine, so this misconception may have been more common than we thought.

Contacted ENTA IR with Dew's comments above. Whether or not they clarify such with a valid PR is another story -

The stock should go up not down if that is the news.
Seems some liquidation going on that is not news driven if you ask me.

Either way, whenever the selling is done, expect it to at least trade back to cash value later on

Just need to suck it up short term unfortunately

that seems hard to believe, but if that is the case then there could be a very rapid bounce back once it becomes clear halting vaccine development for infants is a clear positive for rsv antivirals

yup last attempt was in the 1960s and now ran into the same issue

It's possible that some algorithmic selling occurred based on the mistaken belief that the FDA document on RSV vaccination adversely affected ENTA's peditatric program. Some experienced investors I've talked to about ENTA had thought ENTA's RSV program was about a vaccine, so this misconception may have been more common than we thought.

Reading that FDA document on RSV vaccination is like being in a time warp!

No it’s a positive insofar as the need for antivirals will remain high.
The moderna trials were out on hold this summer but it sounds like there is a moratorium for now on all peds vaccines (active vaccination)