FuelCell Energy Inc (FCEL) Quote

We An excellent post. The most significant post regarding 45V.

While all are important to FCE, under Changes to Final 45V rules: 1. Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Determination and 3. Expanded Facility Definitions stand out. 3 being major.

As all Benefits to FCE are important, 1 Eligibility for Maximum Credits and 4 Support for Scale and Innovations stand out. Both major.

For shareholders this closing line is encouraging:

"These final rules align well with FuelCell Energy's expertise in clean hydrogen production and innovative fuel cell technologies, providing regulatory clarity and financial incentives to scale its operations."

I asked ChatGPT to summarize changes in Final vs. Preliminary 45V rules, and benefits to FCEL. Following is my question and the answer.

I asked:

I'd like for you to summarize the changes in the final 45V rules from the preliminary 45V rules and how they benefit a pure hydrogen company like FuelCell Energy.

ChatGPT said:

Here’s a summary of the key changes in the final 45V rules compared to the preliminary ones and how they benefit a pure hydrogen company like FuelCell Energy:

Changes in the Final 45V Rules

1. Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Determination:
-. Shift to 45VH2-GREET: Final rules mandate the use of the 45VH2-GREET model, developed specifically for hydrogen production, ensuring consistent and precise lifecycle GHG emissions calculations.
- Well-to-Gate Clarifications: The focus remains on emissions through the production point, with explicit guidance on excluding manufacturing emissions for equipment.

2. Verification Requirements:
- Third-Party Verification: Final rules require independent verification of lifecycle GHG emissions and production volumes, which enhances accountability and credibility.
- Simplified Verification for Small Producers: Provisions aim to ease compliance for smaller-scale hydrogen producers.

3. Expanded Facility Definitions:
- Component Inclusion: Clarified that purification, carbon capture, and other production-relevant equipment are part of the facility if they contribute to the lifecycle GHG emissions determination.

4. Credit Tiers and Multipliers:
- Higher Multipliers for Meeting Standards: Facilities meeting prevailing wage and apprenticeship standards are eligible for a 5x multiplier on the base credit.
- Inflation Adjustment: Credit amounts are indexed annually, ensuring consistent value against inflation.

5. Alignment with Renewable Energy:
- Facilities using renewable or zero-emissions electricity gain additional benefits, further incentivizing clean energy integration.

6. Anti-Abuse Provisions:
- New measures ensure facilities genuinely meet clean hydrogen production standards, preventing potential misuse of credits.

Benefits to FuelCell Energy

1. Eligibility for Maximum Credits:
- FuelCell Energy's focus on low-emission hydrogen production through fuel cells positions it to qualify for the highest credit tiers based on lifecycle GHG emissions.

2. Leverage from Renewable Integration:
- The emphasis on renewable energy use aligns with FuelCell Energy's ability to pair its systems with renewable power sources, potentially enhancing its lifecycle
GHG emissions profile.

3. Boost to Market Competitiveness:
- The third-party verification requirements enhance credibility, providing FuelCell Energy with a competitive advantage when negotiating contracts or attracting investment.

4. Support for Scale and Innovation:
- The inclusion of carbon capture and emissions reduction technologies as eligible components supports FuelCell Energy's innovative hydrogen and CO2 management solutions.

5. Economic Resilience:
- Annual inflation adjustments to credit values and eligibility for multipliers reduce financial uncertainty, ensuring stable returns for projects.

6. Enhanced Project Viability:
- The clarified facility definitions and reduced ambiguity in emissions calculations make it easier for FuelCell Energy to plan, structure, and implement qualifying projects.

These final rules align well with FuelCell Energy's expertise in clean hydrogen production and innovative fuel cell technologies, providing regulatory clarity and financial incentives to scale its operations.

https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://fuelcellsworks.com/2025/01/04/clean-energy/api-statement-on-final-regulations-for-section-45v-hydrogen-tax-credit&ct=ga&cd=CAEYASoUMTEwMTM2MTA3NzMwODczNDc4MDQyGjNmNmMxMjhmMjMzNGE4Mjg6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw2Qg-m03Ktw1YvQ3OdxTWbh

https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://fuelcellsworks.com/2025/01/04/clean-energy/api-statement-on-final-regulations-for-section-45v-hydrogen-tax-credit&ct=ga&cd=CAEYASoUMTEwMTM2MTA3NzMwODczNDc4MDQyGjNmNmMxMjhmMjMzNGE4Mjg6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw2Qg-m03Ktw1YvQ3OdxTWbh

API Statement on Final Regulations for Section 45V Hydrogen Tax Credit
January 4, 2025
https://fuelcellsworks.com/2025/01/04/clean-energy/api-statement-on-final-regulations-for-section-45v-hydrogen-tax-credit

WASHINGTON— The American Petroleum Institute (API) released the following statement today from API Senior Vice President of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs Dustin Meyer on the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s final regulations for the Section 45V Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit.

Clear, consistent policy is essential for building a lower-carbon hydrogen industry and strengthening America’s energy leadership.

“Treasury’s 45V guidance marks a meaningful step forward, encouraging innovation while driving progress on emissions. This framework offers an opportunity for natural gas, when paired with carbon capture and storage, to compete more fairly in new markets and meet growing demand for affordable, reliable, lower-carbon energy. We look forward to collaborating with the incoming administration to uphold technology-neutral hydrogen policies that position the U.S. as a global leader in innovation.”

API represents all segments of America’s natural gas and oil industry, which supports nearly 11 million U.S. jobs and is backed by a growing grassroots movement of millions of Americans. Our approximately 600 members produce, process and distribute the majority of the nation’s energy, and participate in API Energy Excellence®, which is accelerating environmental and safety progress by fostering new technologies and transparent reporting. API was formed in 1919 as a standards-setting organization and has developed more than 800 standards to enhance operational and environmental safety, efficiency and sustainability.

+14.7% Thursday, +13.9% on Friday then up fractionally after hours. Up over 35% from this weeks intraday low. 45V final rules clearly favorable for FCEL. $318M cash and Equivalents with $1.2B backlog and even after this pop (including AH) market cap is under $244M. Pre-split price still under $.40. $1 pre-split = $30 today = $613M market cap, which would be rational at just under 2X cash. However, $1B-$2B seems much more rational after Trump Administration settles in and doesn't destroy current policy support for FCEL Technologies, which would be $49-$98! Hype, hope and FOMO lead to $10B market cap in 2021 with no significant policy support! In case you're wondering, that would be about $490 per share!

Talk of gov't privatizing Fannie and Freddie. That's why.

i always play fcel for some trades when it moves...thats why i follow it...but i had no time for them today...FNMA went up 30% on huge volume....and was a far cheaper and much more lucrative play...

Dead Cat Bounce.

Good day fr all hydrogen fuel cell cos.
It'll be interesting to see whether FCEL penetrates and stays above $12 where resistance awaits. Failed to do so today after hitting $12.30 but nevertheless closed strong. The last full hour did show some weakness as it attempted to break and close above $12. See chart on right.
Monday will tell.

How could anyone truly expect and better day. 45V final rules and up huge after being up over 14% yesterday, closing about 35% above the weeks intraday low. 50% bump in volume today after being up on average volume yesterday when we were anticipating the rules today. FCEL was stronger than so called peers/competitors yesterday and and today and rules justify that with specific improvements for FCEL Technologies. Reference the Exxonmobil PR about FCE tech and the other Exxonmobil PR about Nat Gas project planning at undisclosed location they have secured land for.

FCEL rises along with Plug and Bloom on new Rules for Tax Breaks
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/plug-power-stock-bloom-energy-hydrogen-c60dea25?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Even I did not see this bouncing over 40% from the intraday low less than 2 trading days ago. I know I saw a low at $8.77 but don't know if that was the actual intraday low. I was really just hoping green all day and possibly closing over$11. This is a delightful surprise, even if there is profit taking in the closing hour. Final rules seem as good as can be expected. I'm sure the next few days will include analyzing them and assessing the possibility of dissection from the Trump administration. If this is perceived as sticking around for the year or longer, we could have marathon legs. This could dwarf the multi year decline, especially since that was mostly profit taking and manipulation without justification for the past year. This stock should never have gone under a market cap matching their cash. And, as always, this goes up much faster than down. Down took 4 years, up only took 3 months before. I doubt we go up 1,400+% in less than 3 months, but I didn't see that happening before either.

In my previous post, I forgot to highlight the following excerpt, also very important to FCEL.

New Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS). Electricity from a generator that has added CCS within a 36-month window before the hydrogen facility is placed in service will be considered incremental.
Source https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2768

https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-31513.pdf

Time will tell. Questionable policy support and slow market development for our tech have 0 to do with management. How they do with significant political support will provide a clearer picture

They "secured the land" for such before the announcement on January 11. This has been a long awaited plan and they knew rules would be released by year end and include a path for CCUS to be profitable.

1st post shows up on FCE LinkedIn page! I wonder why they haven't posted anything above/afterwards! No I don't. They want to make sure this is what people see. Why. Note Exxonmobil bragging about more than 90% capture!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/exxonmobil_technology-energytransition-carboncapture-ugcPost-7254490831586312192-uiB7?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

6 paragraphs down, 90% capture once again!
https://www.powermag.com/exxonmobil-planning-large-gas-fired-plant-to-serve-data-centers/

Very positive. Not sure if/how much uncertainty as to Trump administration and how they might try to change or eliminate parts of this might effect a run, but without that uncertainty, we would easily shoot to new 52 week high within weeks.

Volume is heavy today but nothing extreme. Significantly, I'm pretty sure fuel cell energy had the largest gain yesterday of the fuel cell stocks at over 14%, And they currently have a much larger game today than the other big three. I will stick with my old philosophy that that's related to being undervalued and having the lowest market cap by far. And my continued belief that that will change and we will become one of the leaders in market cap.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4392371-biden-eases-rules-for-hydrogen-tax-credits-worth-billions

As highlighted by Plug Power CEO, Andy Marsh, in the Tweet in my previous post, the following section from the Treasury Department release earlier today is the reason why FCEL is perhaps the biggest winner.

Nuclear retirement risk. Electricity produced by nuclear plants meeting certain bright-line indications of being at risk of retirement and certain indications of co-dependence on hydrogen investment will be considered incremental, up to 200 MW per qualifying reactor. This reflects the fact that certain nuclear reactors are at greater risk of retirement based on certain economic factors, and if a nuclear retirement is averted then the additional demand from hydrogen production will not have induced emissions.
Source https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2768

X/Twitter Post.
https://x.com/PlugPowerInc/status/1875196267724411211

Plug Power Inc.

The new hydrogen PTC rules mark significant progress, with notable revisions to the incrementality requirement for certain nuclear power facilities and hydrogen projects in states with clean energy policies. The extension of hourly matching to 2030, alongside more flexible incrementality, lays a stronger foundation for U.S. manufacturing in the hydrogen economy. While these updates are encouraging, we look forward to collaborating with the new administration to refine the regulations in a way that aligns with congressional intent, supports their goal of reducing overregulation, and ensures national energy security. - Andy Marsh, CEO Plug

At first glance, final 45V rules are a positive. Thoughts?

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2768

Check out @Kelly66 message on Stocktwits http://stocktwits.com/Kelly66/message/598675949

Happy with green today after an impressive day yesterday. But it would be a very good start to a run if we could somehow close over $11. $13 is still the number to watch in my opinion. That short squeeze video I reposted a couple weeks ago suggested a dip back to the $8 & change range Then a short squeeze at $15. At the time the stock was around $11. I didn't see the dip to $8 so I wasn't sure how I was feeling about his prediction. Although he said 15 I think $13 is more like the breakout. Of course that's just my opinion. 45v today?? Or did I miss it And it's already out.

same old shit...over and over...

+14.71% on 1.3M shares, just below average. Definitely still no ATM. $318M cash & equivalents and $1.2B backlog. Current market cap approximately $210M. Sacramento project nearing completion, PORTHOS running ahead of schedule, modules being delivered summer 2025. Exxonmobil plan to build 1,500MW Nat Gas power plant for Data Centers with carbon capture with 90% efficiency. Restructuring cut spending about 15% for 2025 focussing on commercially ready tech, shortening the time frame to EBIDTA+! 45V rules out tomorrow! With SK sales Revenue, $14+M generation revenue, $5+M Adv tech rev, 2.8MW service rev, and Sacramento commissioned in Q2, FCE could be EBIDTA+ in Q2, 25.

It's known as the January Effect. Although with FCEL I'm not so sure you can bet on it.

What you can bet on today is more shares doled out to the no-news bungling inept leadership.

So there's no mistake in reading a chart, $12 is the resistance needed to be penetrated and then stay above on a closing basis. It failed to do so twice and each time added to the confirmation of greater resistance at $12.
The current move looks impressive intraday but it doesn't change the technicals or the trend. Above $12 could move the trend to short term positive and improve the indicators. More work needs to be done to deliver the above $12 price before any conclusions can be drawn.
As respects Plug and Bloom, a small base is forming around Plug . With Bloom , its a BUY on any further weakness as its now consolidating and digesting its gains but remains in an uptrend.

Just as a reminder, any rise in FCEL brings on some Selling by the company to raise cash. Another name for that is DILUTION.

Today's stairway was looking beautiful until about 1:00. Every step up was resulting in at least a $0.15 jump for the support level. Unfortunately we lost support at $10.30. hopefully we hold around 10:20 and resume the Ascent tomorrow. 15 plus percent is an awful lot for one day with no news.

Do you think it's just a coincidence plug and fuel cell energy are both up over 11% and Ballard is up over 12%. Bloom is up over 4% but I think the discrepancy is largely related to the fact that Bloom has already been on a run based on several bits of good news and is probably closer to what would be considered fair valuation. Fuel cell energy is trading above average volume while plug is trading on heavy volume. I'm still confident There's no ATM involved in that volume. Final rules are supposed to be out tomorrow. Lots of things to be optimistic about but several bits of recent news might just create f o m o for a sense of urgency. This can go up a whole lot quicker than it goes down in anyone paying attention any significant time knows that. $13 is a key level for a breakout in my opinion

Can't copy the AI overview when I googled it, but I can copy everything that came up in the search. Look at the AI overview

I did this is what it says…
According to recent reports, FuelCell Energy is not explicitly mentioned as a direct participant in the currently selected Brazilian hydrogen hub projects, but their technology, particularly their solid oxide electrolyzer cells for clean hydrogen production, could potentially be utilized within these hubs due to their high efficiency and potential for integration with renewable energy sources like wind and solar power in Brazil's energy mix; however, further details regarding specific partnerships or involvement in the chosen projects are needed to confirm their direct participation.

New year same old Hoghead…

now tell us how much FCEL will benefit from 45V?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://fuelcellsworks.com/2025/01/01/green-hydrogen/brazil-mme-announces-the-selection-f-12-projects-for-the-creation-of-hydrogen-hubs%23:~:text%3DThe%2520proposals%2520included%2520the%2520production,year%252C%2520depending%2520on%2520the%2520project.&ved=2ahUKEwjcko3-ptaKAxWmEVkFHWQkLyAQzsoNegQIIRAG&usg=AOvVaw0UM6IRHmyNZC5OMWjsPIZQ

Can't copy the AI overview when I googled it, but I can copy everything that came up in the search. Look at the AI overview
https://www.google.com/search?q=fuelcell+energy+part+of+Brazil+hydrogen+hub+projects&oq=fuelcell+energy+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCAgAEEUYJxg7MggIABBFGCcYOzIGCAEQRRg5MgYIAhBFGDsyBggDEEUYOzIGCAQQIxgnMg8IBRAAGEMYsQMYgAQYigUyDQgGEAAYkQIYgAQYigUyEwgHEC4YxwEYkQIY0QMYgAQYigUyBggIEEUYPDIGCAkQRRg9Mg0IChAAGJECGIAEGIoFMgcICxAAGIAEMgcIDBAAGIAEMg0IDRAAGJECGIAEGIoFMgcIDhAAGIAE0gEINTE5NWowajSoAg6wAgE&client=ms-android-verizon-us-rvc3&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

Reply from Sean Ferreira: Not impressive with Exxon doing business with a company like Fuel Cell Energy that has gone from $30 a share to now $.19 in 4 years ( pre -split ) and if I was to go back 10 years we are looking at below $.01 … yes that is under 1 cent . I called this highway robbery to common shareholders and Fuel Cell Energy should not be called an American company . Sorry but this is a disgrace .

December 20 Hydrogen plan DOE offices! Rules out Friday
https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/docs/hydrogenprogramlibraries/pdfs/hydrogen-program-plan-2024.pdf?sfvrsn=bfc739dd_1

1st post shows up on FCE LinkedIn page! I wonder why they haven't posted anything above/afterwards! No I don't. They want to make sure this is what people see. Why. Note Exxonmobil bragging about more than 90% capture!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/exxonmobil_technology-energytransition-carboncapture-ugcPost-7254490831586312192-uiB7?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

6 paragraphs down, 90% capture once again!
https://www.powermag.com/exxonmobil-planning-large-gas-fired-plant-to-serve-data-centers/

still pushing forward with hydrogen
Check out @Lesi77 message on Stocktwits http://stocktwits.com/Lesi77/message/598481667

how about a new years resolution from you to quit repeating the same shit over and over?...

Happy New Year. Tax loss selling over. If anyone is concerned about the ATM, as of December 23 there has been none since RS. Given well below average volume since then, I'm confident there has still been none, or minimal if any. Still under 21M shares at $9 is $182M market cap. RAOTFLMFAO, that's comical. $300+M cash and Equivalents, $1.2B backlog. Losses for the next 5 quarters should be minimal with common knowledge of such by Q2 call (early June)! 45V will be public knowledge on Friday! PORTHOS CCUS with Exxonmobil is ahead of schedule. Exxonmobil also purchased massive CCUS pipeline and recently purchased land for a new 1,500MW Nat Gas CCUS project to power Data Centers. This not long after Zuckerberg met with Trump at Mar-a-lago, then announced building a new Data Center within days. FCE 2024 recap spoke loud and clear, focussing on SK $160M contract with future potential, Exxonmobil PORTHOS project and JDA expansion and extension, and Toyota Tri-Gen project now operational, and yet another Water Treatment plant in California. Current valuation suggests none of the above has any meaningful impact now or in the future AND there is current concern about liquidity in the next 12-24 months. THERE is NO $ concern whatsoever with all of the above!!! Valuation is ridiculously undervalued. Down side potential is limited if any. Upside potential is IMMEASURABLE! There is clearly uncertainty regarding several issues basically surrounding the fuel cell industry, but nothing specific to Fuelcell Energy (outside the standard disclosures and cautionary language). The ATM is not a concern, it's a benefit insuring they will NEVER have $$ problems. Unless of course the market cap goes under $100M and stays there for a year and there's still no path to profit. So if the entire globe changes course within the next few months, they have no positive developments at all and lose some current existing business, then I will be concerned and only then. Of course, this is my humble opinion based on years of diligence and communication with others doing diligence and I recommend everyone do their own diligence and DO NOT invest based on strictly my input. HAPPY New Year long term investors.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-issue-hydrogen-credit-rule-192622615.html

Happy New Year to all.

Given your expectations of $4.00 and your comments on FEW, explain why you're even thinking of buying. Do you think FEW will wake up ? Is that your analysis.
Maybe HOGWASH can enlighten and tell you al that needs to be known.......... and wrong!

He doesn’t get paid to read just to promote!!

The downtrend continues since the high of $13.50 now down about 35% . Most likely this will go down to $6.75 before the next run back up to $13.50 . I would only be a buyer below $6.00 . This is if we don’t get any news in January. IMO

+There is certainty to the reasons which the company and the stock cannot overcome.
Those that dismiss them will never quite comprehend the importance of them and continue to find excuses .

They are:
1) On going DILUTION ....caused by the company selling shares into the market.
2) Restructuring and the costs associated with it.
3) Persistent and perceived Losses past and future.
4)Lack of sufficient paid for contracts and the overriding expenses preventing profits
5) Analysts Thorough and Objective Research.
6) Technical Analysis shows a long 3+ year downtrend that not once has been broken. Other indicators ate down to neutral.
7) Trump favors fossil fuels and nuclear. He's not a fan of Hydrogen ,or Solar.

It is quite obvious that overlooking these facts has proven costly. They are the basics of investing only those who refuse to acknowledge them will continue incur losses.
Watch out for promoters. They're record speaks to their results.

Busy day today but I've looked at the stock price a couple times. First off I hope all long-term investors had a good holiday. Anyway makes perfect sense after what I've learned about knee jerk reactions and nonsensical fears over the past several years. I understand the concerns unless I missing something are uncertainties about the following:
1) The Trump administration and how they are going to support or not support the IRA and issues related
2) The concerns about potential dilution related to the recent filings.
3) losing money or the lack of being profitable
4) The recent restructuring announcement related to slower than expected growth in our industry.
None of that justifies the current share price and resulting market cap.
Cash is still $300M +/- a little! Market Cap is under $200M or possibly right around $200M
Backlog is at $1.2B All language in the filings or Required, boiler plate disclosures. Revenue for the next 6 quarters will insure FCE does not lose more than $20M net per Q. That means without selling shares, they would still have $150-$200M cash 1 1/2 years from now without growth.
As far as selling shares goes, do you think they are selling shares when the volume is less than average????? And if they were trading at let's say 2M shares a day (above average) how many could possibly be the company??? 500k?
Just like the 3 months run of over 1,400% gain being irrational, so to us trading below cash on hand let alone $100M below cash on hand!!!!!!!!
Tax loss selling? Maybe, shorting, likely, nonsense, definitely! Until they have sold several million shares under $10 without a growth reason attached, they aren't diluting shares. Until Trump Admin reveals Republicans actually like most of the $ and policies attached to our tech, this may not take off. But it will.
Do your own diligence, don't ever invest based on what someone you don't know and trust personally says, including me. Good luck longs, just a matter of time, unfortunately we have no control over

FCEL is continuing to dilute as they sell shares into the market.
The stock could not stay above resistance and fell back Friday and again today so far. It's now in the $9's looking to go lower.
$8 provides meager support.

What was expected happened. After the R/Sthe stock popped. Then it returned to its trend. This is usually the case when losing companies reverse split. The initial bounce gets Longs excited. Then once again disappointed.

Ultimately fundamentals always takes hold.

20.4 million shares as at the end of fiscal 24. Still 20.4 million shares as of December 23rd. Let's be serious here, Even if someone is bearish, If they have any intellect at all and the ability to have rational thought process, Even if they sold a few million shares and had 25 million, $10 a share would still be well under the company's cash. There's no justification for under $10 a share. That said I'm extremely confident it will not stay below $10 a share as this is an attempt at manipulation that should fail simply based on their financials combined with the current market cap. Yes they are not profitable and of course can never guarantee they will be, How many companies out there are in the same situation. This has to be strictly related to the uncertainties with US policy.

do you read what you post? this is a tax in NY state not an investment...

Big investment from NY State
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2024/12/20241228-ny.html

Reading, Reading, Reading. What has it done to convince you're dwindling audience ?
Best you leave the DD and the other stuff to the experts and those that do thorough research.