In October, the number of homes actively for
sale shrank on an annual basis for the fourth month in a row,
despite an unseasonal increase in inventory over September
SANTA
CLARA, Calif., Nov. 2, 2023
/PRNewswire/ -- While home prices remained relatively stable year
over year this October, limited inventory continues to hamper
homebuyers as the number of homes actively for sale shrank on an
annual basis (-2.0%) for the fourth month in a row, according to
the Realtor.com® October Monthly Housing Trends Report
released today. However, inventory rose unseasonably (+5.1%)
between September and October this year as mortgage rates exceeded
20-year highs and created additional headwinds for homebuyers.
Notably, while home prices stayed flat, the share of price
reductions, while down year over year, continued to grow on a
monthly basis, indicating that home prices could potentially soften
in the coming months.
"The current housing market continues to challenge homebuyers
and sellers alike, but we do see signs of adjustment," said
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at
Realtor.com®. "While record-high mortgage rates are
putting off many would-be buyers, decreases in both inventory and
time homes spend on the market shows that some buyers are moving
quickly to lock in rates before they can go any higher. Buyers did
see some measure of relief in stable home prices this month, and
we'll be watching the rising share of listings with reduced prices
to see how that impacts prices in the near future."
What it means for homebuyers, sellers, and the housing
market
Inventory down -41.8% below typical 2017 to 2019
pre-pandemic levels, still-climbing mortgage rates, and elevated
home prices continue to deter potential buyers in October. To help
offset scarce inventory and affordability challenges, many
homebuyers are turning to affordable new construction, while those
who choose to remain renters for longer are quickly absorbing more
affordable new units coming onto the market.
A few relatively unusual monthly data points are worth watching,
such as late-season growth in the inventory of homes for sale at a
time when it would typically decline, along with the rising share
of price reductions, which could signal a softness in prices in the
coming months. Easing prices would be encouraging news for buyers,
as much-higher mortgage rates compared to last October have
increased the monthly cost of financing 80% of the typical home by
roughly $166 (+7.4%) compared to one
year ago, bringing it to a high not previously seen in
Realtor.com® data that stretches back to mid-2016. In
practical terms, this means households looking to purchase the
median-priced home in October now need an additional $6,600 in annual income ($120,000) compared to the same time last
year.
"Because high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and
stubbornly low inventory make today's housing market particularly
challenging, many of today's buyers are motivated by life changes,
such as growing families, supporting elderly parents or grown
children, or accommodating professional needs, from return to
office mandates to relocation opportunities created by remote
work," said Realtor.com®'s Executive News Editor
Clare Trapasso. "On a positive note,
our data shows that home shoppers with flexibility in their
location choices can still find affordable options this fall."
Those trying to determine whether to make a move now or hold out
for possible market improvement can tap into
Realtor.com® RealCost tools, including the Affordability
Calculator.
October 2023 Housing Metrics –
National
|
Metric
|
Change over Oct
2022
|
Change over Oct
2019
|
|
Median listing
price
|
+0.0% (to
$425,000)
|
+37.1 %
|
|
Active
listings
|
-2.0 %
|
-39.0 %
|
|
New listings
|
-3.2 %
|
-18.3 %
|
|
Median days on
market
|
-1 day (to 50
days)
|
+15 days
|
|
Share of active
listings with price reductions
|
-2.6 percentage
points
(to 18.9%)
|
+1.5 percentage
points
|
Inventory drops annually, but surprises with late-season
growth
The number of homes for sale dropped year over year
in October for the fourth straight month. However, October saw an
unseasonal bump in inventory compared with September. Despite this
small increase, active inventory still remained well below typical
2017 to 2019 levels and is down year over year across the majority
of the largest metros, although a few Southern metros saw
significant gains. New listings are also down as home sellers were
less active in October, although the gap compared to last year is
narrowing. Pending listings, an early indicator of where home sales
are headed, are also down year over year.
- Nationally, -2.0% fewer homes were actively for sale on a
typical day in October compared to the same time in 2022. The
number of homes for sale rose unseasonably (+5.1%) from September
to October, although active inventory remained -41.8% below typical
2017 to 2019 levels.
- Pending listings, the number of homes under contract but not
yet sold, declined -7.6% compared to the same time last year.
Pending homes are an early indicator of the direction of home
sales, which cooled to a lower annual pace of 3.96 million in
September.
- While newly listed homes were down -3.2% compared with
October 2022, they improved from a
year-over-year decline of -9.1% in September.
- Regionally, only the South saw inventory growth (+3.3%)
compared to October 2022. Inventory
declined -4.8% in the Midwest, -10.4% in the Northeast, and -24.7%
in the West. While the number of homes for sale dropped in 33 out
of 50 of the largest metros compared to October 2022 (-6.7% in this group overall), some
Southern metros still saw significant growth, including
Memphis, Tenn. (+30.3%),
New Orleans (+26.0%), and
San Antonio (+20.6%). However,
only Austin, Texas (+10.4%) and
San Antonio (+9.1%) saw higher
levels of inventory in October compared to typical 2017 to 2019
levels.
- Newly listed homes in the 50 largest metro areas also declined
regionally, down -10.2% in the West, -6.2% in the Midwest, -3.6% in
the South, and -2.3% in the Northeast. Eleven metros saw an
increase in new listings year over year, up from just two in
September, including Buffalo, N.Y.
(+13.7%), Miami (+11.3%), and
Birmingham, Ala. (+5.3%). Declines
were greatest in Las Vegas
(-24.9%), Virginia Beach, Va.
(-16.3%), and Portland,
Ore.16.2%).
Listing prices stable but price cuts climbed
unseasonally
Listing prices continue to be buoyed by scarce
inventory, and while new home sales increased in September,
construction activity isn't enough to fully bridge the low
inventory gap. While home listing prices remained relatively stable
year over year, higher mortgage rates have significantly increased
the monthly costs of homeownership. Interestingly, the share of
price reductions is still increasing well into the fall season,
which is unusual for a typical year but follows the trend seen last
year and in 2018 when the housing market slowed.
- The national median list price declined seasonally in October,
to $425,000 from $430,000 in September.
- In the largest metros, the combined annual median list price
growth rate for active listings was +5.5%, outpacing the national
growth rate. While all regions saw listing prices in larger metros
still increasing on average, Northeastern metros had the highest
average growth rate in active listing prices (+9.3% year over
year). Prices in Los Angeles
(+23.3%), Richmond, Va. (+14.5%),
and Providence, RI (+13.7%), saw
the biggest increases. However, in each of these metros, larger and
more expensive homes were listed for sale in October compared to
the previous year. On a price-per-square-foot basis, listing prices
only grew by +11.0% in Los
Angeles, +6.1% in Richmond,
and +3.4% in Providence, RI.
Larger Southern metros saw the lowest listing price growth rate
among the regions (+3.1%).
- Only five out of the largest 50 metros saw declines in median
list prices: San Antonio, Texas
(-2.2%), San Jose, Calif. (-1.3%),
Memphis, Tenn. (-0.5%),
Dallas (-0.2%), and Miami (-0.1%).
- While the share of price reductions continues to climb
month-over-month, the percentage of homes with price reductions
decreased on an annual basis from 21.5% in October of 2022 to 18.9%
this October. Price reductions remained below last year's levels in
all four regions and were well below in the West (-10.6 percentage
points).
- However, 13 of the 50 large metros saw the share of price
reductions increase compared to last October, predominantly in the
South and Midwest. St. Louis saw
the greatest increase (+4.2 percentage points), followed by
Oklahoma City (+3.4 percentage
points), and Memphis (+3.0
percentage points).
Homes move off the market faster year over year
The
amount of time homes spend on the market is rising more slowly than
usual during the fall season, as limited supply spurs homebuyers to
act quickly and newly listed homes make up a greater share of low
remaining inventory. Overall, homes in all regions spent less time
on the market in October than during the same time last year.
- The typical home spent 50 days on the market this October,
which is one day shorter than the same time last year and more than
two weeks (-15 days) less than in the average October from 2017 to
2019.
- In the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, the typical home spent 42
days on the market, which is two days less than in October 2022. Homes in large metros in the West
spent four fewer days on the market year over year, three fewer
days in the Northeast, one day less in the Midwest, and homes spent
the same amount of time on the market compared to last year in the
South.
- In 35 of the 50 largest metro areas this October, homes are
spending less time on the market compared to last year, with time
on the market decreasing the most in Phoenix (-14 days), Buffalo, N.Y. (-13 days) and Las Vegas (-11 days).
- Time on market increased in 16 of the 50 largest metros,
including New Orleans (+9 days),
and Nashville, Tenn. (+6 days).
Among all large metros, only Los
Angeles (+2 days) and Denver (+1 day) saw an increase in time on
market compared to average 2017 to 2019 pacing.
October 2023 Housing Overview
by Top 50 Largest Metros
|
Metro
Area
|
Median
Listing Price
|
Median Listing Price
YoY
|
Median Listing Price
per Sq. Ft. YoY
|
Active Listing Count
YoY
|
New Listing Count
YoY
|
Median Days on
Market
|
Median Days
on Market Y-Y (Days)
|
Price Reduced
Share
|
Price Reduced
Share Y-Y (Percentage Points)
|
|
Atlanta-Sandy
Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.
|
$425,000
|
2.7 %
|
3.0 %
|
-8.2 %
|
-5.7 %
|
43
|
-1
|
20.7 %
|
-5.4 pp
|
|
Austin-Round
Rock-Georgetown, Texas
|
$550,000
|
0.0 %
|
0.6 %
|
1.9 %
|
-11.5 %
|
60
|
4
|
34.7 %
|
-13.9 pp
|
|
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.
|
$367,000
|
8.1 %
|
5.5 %
|
-11.4 %
|
0.1 %
|
37
|
-5
|
18.5 %
|
0.2 pp
|
|
Birmingham-Hoover,
Ala.
|
$295,000
|
5.3 %
|
4.7 %
|
14.4 %
|
5.3 %
|
51
|
5
|
17.7 %
|
-0.4 pp
|
|
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.
|
$837,000
|
11.8 %
|
10.5 %
|
-14.0 %
|
-8.1 %
|
32
|
1
|
19.2 %
|
-3.6 pp
|
|
Buffalo-Cheektowaga,
N.Y.
|
$255,000
|
6.3 %
|
9.4 %
|
2.4 %
|
13.7 %
|
39
|
-13
|
9.5 %
|
-1.0 pp
|
|
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.
|
$421,000
|
2.4 %
|
5.9 %
|
-11.4 %
|
2.6 %
|
40
|
-5
|
19.4 %
|
-5.8 pp
|
|
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.
|
$370,000
|
8.9 %
|
6.3 %
|
-22.2 %
|
-10.4 %
|
37
|
-4
|
15.2 %
|
-3.2 pp
|
|
Cincinnati,
Ohio-Ky.-Ind.
|
$356,000
|
9.7 %
|
9.1 %
|
6.5 %
|
-3.6 %
|
33
|
-1
|
17.5 %
|
1.4 pp
|
|
Cleveland-Elyria,
Ohio
|
$238,000
|
13.3 %
|
7.6 %
|
-15.7 %
|
-2.5 %
|
40
|
-6
|
17.6 %
|
-0.8 pp
|
|
Columbus,
Ohio
|
$367,000
|
7.9 %
|
7.6 %
|
-3.0 %
|
-9.2 %
|
31
|
1
|
24.9 %
|
0.1 pp
|
|
Dallas-Fort
Worth-Arlington, Texas
|
$449,000
|
-0.2 %
|
0.5 %
|
6.6 %
|
-1.4 %
|
46
|
2
|
26.8 %
|
-2.9 pp
|
|
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood,
Colo.
|
$635,000
|
2.4 %
|
5.7 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-10.8 %
|
41
|
4
|
29.2 %
|
-7.0 pp
|
|
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.
|
$252,000
|
0.9 %
|
3.2 %
|
-19.8 %
|
-11.4 %
|
40
|
1
|
15.4 %
|
-9.9 pp
|
|
Hartford-East
Hartford-Middletown, Conn.
|
$400,000
|
6.6 %
|
7.7 %
|
-17.3 %
|
-8.6 %
|
37
|
5
|
8.5 %
|
-2.5 pp
|
|
Houston-The
Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas
|
$369,000
|
0.1 %
|
0.6 %
|
4.5 %
|
-2.7 %
|
46
|
-2
|
20.8 %
|
-4.6 pp
|
|
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.
|
$320,000
|
6.7 %
|
5.3 %
|
9.0 %
|
-6.9 %
|
41
|
0
|
28.7 %
|
2.8 pp
|
|
Jacksonville,
Fla.
|
$425,000
|
6.3 %
|
3.9 %
|
-2.9 %
|
-1.5 %
|
51
|
-2
|
24.6 %
|
-0.3 pp
|
|
Kansas City,
Mo.-Kan.
|
$412,000
|
6.0 %
|
3.7 %
|
-2.6 %
|
-3.0 %
|
50
|
-2
|
19.4 %
|
1.0 pp
|
|
Las
Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.
|
$475,000
|
5.6 %
|
1.9 %
|
-53.4 %
|
-24.9 %
|
44
|
-11
|
19.1 %
|
-20.5 pp
|
|
Los Angeles-Long
Beach-Anaheim, Calif.
|
$1,159,000
|
23.3 %
|
11.0 %
|
-23.1 %
|
-2.6 %
|
44
|
-4
|
12.8 %
|
-8.0 pp
|
|
Louisville/Jefferson
County, Ky.-Ind.
|
$305,000
|
1.9 %
|
5.3 %
|
1.0 %
|
3.8 %
|
32
|
-5
|
22.0 %
|
-0.2 pp
|
|
Memphis,
Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.
|
$319,000
|
-0.5 %
|
2.2 %
|
30.3 %
|
-3.5 %
|
50
|
5
|
23.3 %
|
3.0 pp
|
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.
|
$599,000
|
-0.1 %
|
5.2 %
|
10.8 %
|
11.3 %
|
56
|
-4
|
16.7 %
|
0.1 pp
|
|
Milwaukee-Waukesha,
Wis.
|
$340,000
|
3.1 %
|
4.6 %
|
-2.8 %
|
-6.0 %
|
32
|
-4
|
21.6 %
|
2.8 pp
|
|
Minneapolis-St.
Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.
|
$431,000
|
6.4 %
|
2.7 %
|
-3.9 %
|
-6.9 %
|
38
|
-1
|
19.2 %
|
-2.4 pp
|
|
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin,
Tenn.
|
$573,000
|
9.2 %
|
5.0 %
|
-1.1 %
|
-15.0 %
|
37
|
6
|
25.2 %
|
-4.5 pp
|
|
New Orleans-Metairie,
La.
|
$335,000
|
1.7 %
|
1.3 %
|
26.0 %
|
-2.9 %
|
67
|
9
|
21.8 %
|
-1.2 pp
|
|
New York-Newark-Jersey
City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.
|
$730,000
|
8.2 %
|
13.0 %
|
-15.4 %
|
-10.2 %
|
56
|
-3
|
10.2 %
|
-1.9 pp
|
|
Oklahoma City,
Okla.
|
$335,000
|
4.6 %
|
1.3 %
|
11.1 %
|
-13.4 %
|
46
|
-2
|
23.6 %
|
3.4 pp
|
|
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.
|
$450,000
|
1.1 %
|
2.1 %
|
6.0 %
|
2.8 %
|
50
|
-7
|
22.5 %
|
0.6 pp
|
|
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington,
Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.
|
$350,000
|
4.5 %
|
5.9 %
|
-13.9 %
|
-4.6 %
|
44
|
-5
|
16.4 %
|
-1.9 pp
|
|
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler,
Ariz.
|
$530,000
|
9.2 %
|
3.1 %
|
-39.3 %
|
-13.9 %
|
37
|
-14
|
28.7 %
|
-18.3 pp
|
|
Pittsburgh,
Pa.
|
$247,000
|
12.2 %
|
5.8 %
|
-4.9 %
|
-3.5 %
|
51
|
-3
|
20.7 %
|
-1.0 pp
|
|
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.
|
$620,000
|
6.9 %
|
2.5 %
|
-1.9 %
|
-16.2 %
|
48
|
4
|
21.8 %
|
-4.9 pp
|
|
Providence-Warwick,
R.I.-Mass.
|
$539,000
|
13.7 %
|
3.4 %
|
-12.9 %
|
-2.2 %
|
34
|
-3
|
11.6 %
|
-1.7 pp
|
|
Raleigh-Cary,
N.C.
|
$458,000
|
0.6 %
|
2.0 %
|
-20.8 %
|
-5.3 %
|
44
|
-4
|
18.7 %
|
-8.7 pp
|
|
Richmond,
Va.
|
$435,000
|
14.5 %
|
6.1 %
|
8.1 %
|
0.7 %
|
41
|
1
|
12.7 %
|
-1.7 pp
|
|
Riverside-San
Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
|
$580,000
|
0.9 %
|
5.1 %
|
-25.2 %
|
-8.4 %
|
49
|
-4
|
16.2 %
|
-10.1 pp
|
|
Rochester,
N.Y.
|
$250,000
|
11.1 %
|
11.6 %
|
-7.3 %
|
5.1 %
|
19
|
-6
|
11.8 %
|
-1.2 pp
|
|
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, Calif.
|
$649,000
|
8.3 %
|
3.0 %
|
-30.0 %
|
-13.3 %
|
42
|
-6
|
20.2 %
|
-10.7 pp
|
|
San Antonio-New
Braunfels, Texas
|
$347,000
|
-2.2 %
|
0.0 %
|
20.6 %
|
-12.5 %
|
56
|
4
|
28.3 %
|
1.3 pp
|
|
San Diego-Chula
Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.
|
$999,000
|
12.1 %
|
12.1 %
|
-31.1 %
|
-2.1 %
|
34
|
-5
|
14.7 %
|
-12.3 pp
|
|
San
Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.
|
$1,098,000
|
0.7 %
|
1.2 %
|
-16.2 %
|
-8.5 %
|
35
|
-3
|
15.4 %
|
-7.0 pp
|
|
San
Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.
|
$1,381,000
|
-1.3 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-22.8 %
|
1.7 %
|
31
|
-6
|
12.7 %
|
-7.7 pp
|
|
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.
|
$792,000
|
5.6 %
|
6.9 %
|
-28.3 %
|
-13.0 %
|
38
|
-2
|
17.1 %
|
-10.4 pp
|
|
St. Louis,
Mo.-Ill.
|
$277,000
|
0.4 %
|
2.5 %
|
6.5 %
|
-1.7 %
|
42
|
1
|
20.8 %
|
4.2 pp
|
|
Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.
|
$430,000
|
1.2 %
|
4.7 %
|
7.6 %
|
4.3 %
|
44
|
-6
|
27.2 %
|
-0.8 pp
|
|
Virginia
Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.
|
$374,000
|
4.0 %
|
6.9 %
|
-2.0 %
|
-16.3 %
|
39
|
2
|
21.4 %
|
1.0 pp
|
|
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W.
Va.
|
$600,000
|
4.5 %
|
7.2 %
|
-22.2 %
|
-14.2 %
|
35
|
-3
|
15.6 %
|
-4.4 pp
|
Methodology
Realtor.com® housing data as of
October 2023. Listings include the
active inventory of existing single-family homes and
condos/townhomes/rowhomes/co-ops for the given level of geography
on Realtor.com®; new construction is excluded unless
listed via an MLS that provides listing data to
Realtor.com®. Realtor.com® data history goes
back to July 2016. 50 largest U.S.
metropolitan areas as defined by the Office of Management and
Budget (OMB).
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empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down
barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating
confidence through expert insights and guidance. For professionals,
Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth,
offering consumer connections and branding solutions that help them
succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is
operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV]
subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit
Realtor.com®.
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SOURCE Realtor.com