Redfin agents in areas affected by inclement
weather report slow homebuying activity, but agents in warmer
locales say buyers and sellers are active as mortgage rates stay in
the high-6% range, down from 8% a few months ago
(NASDAQ: RDFN) —The median U.S. home-sale price rose 5.1% during
the four weeks ending January 21, the biggest increase since
October 2022, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com),
the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Asking prices rose
6.5% which is also the biggest increase since October 2022.
Prices are rising for a few reasons. One, inventory is still
quite low. The total number of homes for sale is down 4% year over
year. And while new listings are up 2%, that’s the smallest annual
increase in two months. Additionally, sellers can command higher
prices because buyers have more purchasing power; mortgage rates
are holding steady in the mid-to-high 6% range, down from 8% in
October.
This week’s sales data shows sluggish activity as severe winter
weather kept buyers and sellers on the sidelines in much of the
country: Pending home sales are down 8% year over year, the biggest
decline in four months. The big annual drop in pending sales can
also be explained in part by a base effect from last January:
Pending sales were improving at this time last year as mortgage
rates fell.
While Redfin agents in places that are facing harsh weather
report that would-be buyers are staying home (for now),
mortgage-purchase applications are rising, and agents in warmer
places say demand is picking up:
- “Real estate is usually slow in the Midwest in the winter, but
this year it’s even slower than usual because the weather has been
so extreme," said Grand Rapids, MI Redfin Premier agent Christine
Kooiker. “Casual house hunters are staying home to avoid the
roads—but inventory is low enough that serious buyers are finding a
way to see desirable homes. I also believe we’ll get busier as we
approach spring. People are used to higher mortgage rates, and they
know prices are likely to go up more if they wait.”
- “At the end of 2023, a lot of my clients said, ‘I’ll call you
in January.’ And they did. This month has been nonstop,” said Shay
Stein, a Redfin Premier agent in Las Vegas. “I wouldn’t say buyers
are happy about 6.5% rates, but they’ll accept it because they’ll
feel vindicated if rates rise back to 8%, and they can always
refinance and avoid future bidding wars if rates drop further. And
sellers are coming out of the woodwork, noticing the interest from
buyers.”
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.95% (Jan. 24)
Up slightly from a week earlier
Up from 6.18%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.6% (week ending Jan. 18)
Lowest level since May
Up from 6.15%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Up 8% from a week earlier; up 17% from a
month earlier (as of week ending Jan. 19)
Down 18%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Down 8% from a month earlier (as of week
ending Jan. 21)
Down 21%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure
of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin
agents
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Up 18% from a month earlier (as of Jan.
20)
Down 15%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending
January 21, 2023
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending January 21,
2023
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$362,225
5.1%
Biggest increase since Oct.
2022
Median asking price
$384,458
6.5%
Biggest increase since Oct.
2022
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,525 at a 6.6% mortgage
rate
10.7%
Down roughly $200 from all-time
high set during the four weeks ending Oct. 22, but up roughly $200
from the four weeks ending Dec. 31
Pending sales
54,331
-8.2%
Biggest decline in 4 months
New listings
54,796
2.2%
Active listings
742,862
-4%
Months of supply
4.7 months
+0.3 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is
considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions
Share of homes off market in two
weeks
26.5%
Essentially unchanged
Median days on market
45
-3 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
22.9%
Up from 21%
Share of homes with a price
drop
4.4%
Essentially unchanged
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
98.2%
+0.4 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending January 21, 2023
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Anaheim, CA (13.6%)
New Brunswick, NJ (13.5%)
Miami (13.3%)
Newark, NJ (12.6%)
Providence, RI (11.8%)
Austin, TX (-3.7%)
San Antonio, TX (-2.2%)
Oakland, CA (-1.8%)
Jacksonville, FL (-1%)
Declined in 4 metros
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (8.8%)
Detroit (6.1%)
Anaheim, CA (4.5%)
Milwaukee, WI (2.6%)
San Francisco (2.3%)
Portland, OR (-24.7%)
New Brunswick, NJ (-21.9%)
Newark, NJ (-18.9%)
Houston (-18.3%)
Atlanta (-17.3%)
Increased in 9 metros
New listings
San Diego, CA (22.3%)
Phoenix (21.6%)
Minneapolis, MN (20.4%)
Miami (18.8%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (18.7%)
Chicago (-20.4%)
Atlanta (-17.9%)
Portland, OR (-16%)
Fort Worth, TX (-11.2%)
Nashville, TN (-8.6%)
Declined in 14 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-prices-rise-pending-sales-fall
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We
also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our
home-buying customers see homes first with same day tours, and our
lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers
selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix
up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers
millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent.
Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee,
subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly
charge. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than
$1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across
the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240125369668/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880
press@redfin.com
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